Posts by Easy Markets
US call options volume is SKYROCKETING:
Total net call volume, measured as calls minus puts on a 5-day moving average, surged to ~2,000,000 contracts, the highest on record.
Technology stocks surge 20% over the 13 trading days into Friday. The last two times that happened was coming out of COVID and the financial crisis.
We detailed in our latest note why we believe this is the fork in the road. It’s “Judgement week”.
Data Centers now account for ~7% of US power demand
BofA: K-shaped spending dynamics are likely to get more pronounced
The rich are doing just fine
Stocks are confident the war is over.
Oil is not.
Stocks are confident the war is over.
Oil is not.
Looks like that canal down in Panama was pretty important after all…
The rebound in stocks has been less about fundamentals and more about CTAs and other algorithmic players being forced back into the market.
The rebound in stocks has been less about fundamentals and more about CTAs and other algorithmic players being forced back into the market.
In just 2 weeks, the S&P 500 has gone from widely oversold to overbought.
However, this is not being driven by fundamentals. Options expiration is creating complacency.
“The futures and spot prices are rarely exactly the same, but the gap between them has grown unusually big in the past few weeks, so much so that oil executives and analysts say futures prices no longer accurately reflect the extent of the supply shock that the world is experiencing.” - NYT
The ceasefire is all show.
Nothing is passing through the Strait.
Why are stocks up 7 consecutive days?
It’s all about positioning!
Too many people bought puts and got short.
Sometimes it takes time for the equity markets to fully appreciate the macro implications of an oil shock.
The price of crude cargoes for immediate delivery has soared to its highest level since 2008
If the SPX can hold in the green, it will be a fourth straight day, the longest stretch since a 5-day run Jan 21-27th.
The global long/short ratio is at its lowest level in 15 years, per Goldman.
To put it simply, people are ‘hedged’ for Iran and this makes a crash highly unlikely. But that doesn’t mean we are going higher. The pain trade is a slow and painful choppy grind lower.
All you’ve had to do is ow tech and energy together the last few years…
Higher oil prices and higher interest rates will compress equity valuations.
open.substack.com/pub/easymark...
Our latest weekly piece is out! Everything going according to plan…
open.substack.com/pub/easymark...
Every US recession excluding the pandemic downturn was preceded by an oil price shock.
Best day so far for the S&P 500 since May 2025
9 weeks in a row where the S&P 500 has fallen on Thursday.
Tech stocks trading at the cheapest valuation in YEARS