They want us to give up. Don’t help them …

They can but don’t have to …they have two paths

1) print money at central bank / treasury to ‘pay off’ debts - no true defaults but massive inflation

2) allow defaults - the cascading failures of others downstream causes ‘deflation’

Splitting the difference is almost impossibly difficult

Good suggestion… plant them on the graves of ‘returning’ soldiers

Black market running rampant is absolutely a great indicator of economic and social collapse. When producers eschew ‘formal channels’ and sell ‘off the back of the delivery truck’ instead… the fall isn’t far behind

1% per day … loan sharks in Brighton Beach and Sunny Isles are going to ‘self-deport’

Gulag economics - Stalin / NKVD did this for almost three decades. Proven model

And drunk…

She needs to lighter on the polonium methinks

All 12 samples - so consistent. That’s ‘good’ isn’t it?

*slaps post again*

Still good!

Or the vor. I’m a bit surprised the Thai even cared. Russians killing Russians is almost a blessing

Thank you - somebody has to do the real work

Unless you don’t GAF who knows…

I’ve seen both … overrated IMO but have been told you really need to get persimmons in fall fresh off tree - not in stores (usually not picked ripe) … kinda like peaches in that respect

The third option is do what Soviets did … peg to a state determined exchange rate. Shut down any and all private forex exchanges. Only recognize the official state sponsored exchange rate. Close the border and accept a runaway black market

About $100

US can’t save them … not w/ the tsunami of sovereign debt US has to refi this year ~$9T on top of the $2T yearly current account deficit predicted for this year. Total float of about $11T … We can’t save ourselves

100% right …

If it is happening it’s on the black market and ‘we’ won’t see it until it’s massive

It’s why on X spaces I ask ppl who have contacts in Russia (and near abroad like Tbilisi) what’s happening in the black market both for goods and street ‘forex’

They say black market is increasing but not crazy

The laborers are certain to get paid that way (unlike Russians) and payments will be made from proceeds of the oil sales - in India - to their families directly so won’t be at risk of being stolen by Russia

I would be shocked if this wasn’t the arrangement

BTW my expectation is a similar ‘closed loop’ is starting w/ India. Except the loop is different… Russia supplies oil, India offers rupees (Russians don’t want that) … so a rupee denominated fund set up in India to ‘pay’ Indian laborers sent to work in Russia…

He gets yuan by selling China all of that. He’d prefer $ € probably but yuan will do if he’s buying goods from China

Selling gold is only used as a last option fallback if ‘funds’ are short

That’s my read on things

You buy something relatively ‘rare’ in official channels at say 10 rubles then turn around and sell it in black market at 50 rubles … or for hard currency you then use to buy western goods (unavailable in country) on black market

We are likely returning to that and soon…

But it’s why the black market was so prolific and ‘profitable’ … the opportunity for ‘ruble arbitrage’ was enormous and a big reason why official outlets saw products disappear and yet remain wildly available on black market…

It also explains why they are okay w/ ruble appreciation (even if rate is ‘artificial’) … if you can’t really export manufactured goods (due to sanctions) do you care if ruble strong? Not really

In USSR ruble exchange rate was pegged by state - but trade was ‘managed’ anyway so why not?

So selling hard currency is a viable alternative so long as you have it and you can control the ‘black market’. My guess is a big part of these sales is only selling to ‘investors’ you can somewhat control (oligarchs or other state-aligned institutions) so it doesn’t end up in ‘black market’

Typically a functioning economy will sell bonds to do the same (sterilization of excess money supply) but no one trusts ‘bonds’ … or incentivizing savings via high interest rates but Russians don’t trust ‘banks’ either

This actually makes some sense but there are nuances IMO

Selling hard money ‘to the domestic public’ as a way to drain off rubles (in circulation - ie inflation) makes a lot of sense IF there are assurances it doesn’t end up in the black market - that’s a direct threat to the state….

Any idea why they don’t just set a pegged exchange rate like they did in USSR 🤷‍♂️

They need a tutorial by Trump Org … he’d tell them to pull all the revenue they can forward and push the expenses out into next year