@ EconSky:

If any of you have taught (or are teaching/planning to teach) any of my papers, could you please DM me? I would be very grateful.

Any honest DM will receive a personalized picture of my Spinoza (Nosik) Petrov-Libgober (my dog) as a token of gratitude.

Ungated version here:

uploads.strikinglycdn.com/files/fbd829...

Research Registries and the Credibility Crisis: An Empirical and Theoretical Investigation Abstract. We analyze one prominent policy solution to the credibility crisis in experimental research—research registries—with primary focus on the AEA RCT

My paper on research registries with Eliot Abrams and
John List is now forthcoming at Economic Journal:

academic.oup.com/ej/advance-a...

Very happy to finally have finished up this project, although I learned a ton from working on it.

This was a fun one! Glad to see it in a great home.

I've discovered that you have much more fun as a tourist if you don't know what the exchange rate is.

I feel like I've heard critiques of economics as a discipline since as long as I've studied economics. Has anyone done a historiography of this?

I guess it's a sign of the field's influence that people seem to care so much, so maybe it's a good thing. At the same time, I can't help but think...why?

Huge congrats to my amazing colleague and her coauthors on this fantastic paper.

Markets, Models, and Mamdani Political prediction markets have been around for decades, but rose to unprecedented visibility and prominence during the last election cycle in the United States.

New post on prediction markets, opinion polls, and the New York City mayor's race: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Betting on Geopolitical Violence Back in 2003, a Pentagon office led by Admiral John M.

New post on the realization after two decades of Poindexter's dream: rajivsethi.substack.com/p/betting-on...

Meh, I think it'd only work about half as well as it should... (and thanks!)

Seems that I jumped ahead of this a little bit...

Less related to recent events than it may seem, but I wanted to post this at some point:

My Retractions paper, with brilliant coauthors Duarte Goncalves and Jack Willis, was accepted at Restud earlier this year, and is now on the journal's website.

www.restud.com/retractions-...

Survey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models Abstract. This paper develops a theory of subjective beliefs that departs from rational expectations, and shows that biases in household beliefs have quant

An important paper on the role of subjective beliefs on the business cycle, now published in Restud.

academic.oup.com/restud/advan...

Learning underspecified models This paper examines learning dynamics under non-parametric model uncertainty. We choose the monopolistic profit maximization problem (Myerson (1981)) …

My paper on algorithmic pricing, joint with In-Koo Cho, is now online at the Journal of Economic Theory.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

My dog will literally climb on top of me while I'm working on my laptop but then start to growl in discomfort if I hug him back. Make it make sense.

Attempted murder of a Jewish governor and his family on Passover is not a headline story for @nytimes.com and @washingtonpost.com. I’m relieved that Shapiro and his family survived the attack.

As an economist, here is my take on how to understand the justification for Trump's tariffs.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kettle_...

Will be waiting for them to add Russian...

I've used a variant of this example as a one-player game, which makes it even weirder imo...

I've taught game theory for several years now (maybe like, 10 times?) but somehow it only now just hit me that mixed strategies in Bayesian games are pretty damn weird.

The only part I don't like about this is that now we may be forced to spell it "defence."

I was motivated to post this after back-to-back seeing the clip of Roger Wicker with Manu Raju and the tweet from Don Bacon.

If I shared the ITYSL meme with Tim Robinson in the hot dog suit every time a Republican said that Putin is out of control, I wouldn't have time to do anything else.

Rubio has like, what, 5 months left on the job?

Good to know I am fighting the woke agenda by showing that some inequalities are actually binding equalities.

Roses are red,
A noise ball is blue,
But when you find out it's noise,
The info will not undo.

uploads.strikinglycdn.com/files/8779d7...

Chiefs can still win this if Mike Pence has the courage to do the right thing.

If only I knew how to stop it...