An actuary, a lawyer, and a climate risk scientist walk into a bar
(meet on Zoom).

This is the result:
eartharxiv.org/repository/v...

Synthetic TC models are powerful - but may be hard to use outside climate science.

We release global coastal wind hazard maps from CHAZ, translating TC tracks into exceedance intensities and return periods.

Paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Data: datadryad.org/dataset/doi:...

⏰ Still undecided which EGU26 session to submit to?
If your work touches on interdisciplinary perspectives on societal responses to extreme weather, we’d love to see it in our session!
👉 Submit here: lnkd.in/g3zwt8ZP
@colognaviktoria.bsky.social @romanhoffmann.bsky.social

Do you want to start your academic year with an easy win? Submit an abstract to our session! www.egu26.eu/session/57599

@colognaviktoria.bsky.social @romanhoffmann.bsky.social

@colognaviktoria.bsky.social @romanhoffmann.bsky.social

📢 Call for ABSTRACTS for @egu.eu 2026

Submit your #interdisciplinary contributions that address societal responses to extreme weather events 🌪 🌡 🌏 🔥

➡ Deadline: 15 January 2026
➡ Conference: 3 - 8 May 2026, Vienna
➡ meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...

This is a fantastic setup for open, collaborative discussions on climate risk and adaptation!

New paper out! 🌍 We developed a natural hazard risk modeling approach to human displacement. 4 teams, 2 frameworks (CLIMADA, CIMA), 1 goal: better understanding displacement risk across multiple hazards and climate scenarios. Big thanks to amazing collaborators!

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

🚨I’m recruiting 1-2 PhD students for my Air Quality Data Science 🌐 group @utah.edu (start Fall ’26), working on multimodal machine learning applications for atmospheric chemistry (wildfires, ozone, dust). How to apply below. Please repost & ping me with recommendations!

What we propose is one small piece of ESG. Greater transparency and comparability in physical risk disclosures would provide investors (individuals and institutions) with a benefit. So that should be appealing as a policy, regardless of the broader ESG debate.

@sarahhuelsen.bsky.social @davidnbresch.bsky.social

What if companies disclosed climate risk the same way insurers analyze it: with event-based probabilistic models that show what could happen, when, and with what likelihood?

Check out our new paper in Environmental Research: Climate to learn more!
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

There is a new CLIVAR working group focused on climate risk (I'm one of the organizers). We are having our first public webinar tomorrow 7/10 at 1 pm ET. We have some FANTASTIC speakers including @kellyhereid.bsky.social, @climatefran.bsky.social, and Zong-Liang Yang.

TODAY at 1pm ET

Where I'll be talking about how you can get pretty fancy with wildfire risk analysis with some not-that-fancy climate science.

This study is based on a great collaboration of our #TISP consortium and @simonameiler.bsky.social, Chahan Kropf, @samluethi.bsky.social and David N. Bresch (@ethz.ch). @colognaviktoria.bsky.social and I joined forces with them to combine our worldwide survey data with their climate modelling data 🤝

🔥 Proud to have contributed population-level exposure data to this Nature Climate Change study on extreme weather, climate change attribution & policy support. Thanks to my amazing co-authors!

Communication is key, and there’s lots more to do!

👉 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

What an honor to receive the Prix Schläfli 2025 in Geosciences!
Big thanks to the @scnat.ch, my mentors — especially @davidnbresch.bsky.social — my colleagues at @ethzurich.bsky.social, and everyone who supported me along the way.
Excited for what’s ahead — and congratulations to the other winners!

Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability - Nature A transparent and reproducible scientific framework is introduced to formalize how trillions in economic losses are attributable to the extreme heat caused by emissions from fossil fuel companies, whi...

NEW: Fossil fuel firms like Chevron and Exxon owe the world trillions of dollars. Today in @nature.com, @jsmankin.bsky.social and I show economic losses from rising heat waves directly traceable to these firms, providing scientific support for climate accountability.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

An informative new tool to make risks from natural hazards visible and accessible - not just for scientists, but also for planners, emergency managers, and other professionals across disciplines.
Tool: experience.arcgis.com/experience/1...
Background story: news.climate.columbia.edu/2025/04/22/a...

Glad you enjoyed it! Had to call out the classics 😉

Navigating and attributing uncertainty in future tropical cyclone risk estimates Quantifying, classifying, and comparing uncertainties in future tropical cyclone risks toward actionable climate decisions.

Future TC risk is uncertain — but here’s the twist: what drives that uncertainty changes with your risk model setup.
We unpacked that. Full paper here: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
@adamsobel.bsky.social @scamargo.bsky.social @nblmndl.bsky.social and other wonderful co-authors 🙏!

I'd definitely support including extreme events across a range of hazards, including compound events. You could also report on impacts, such as displacement, health effects, and ecosystems affected. Or flip the script with good news, highlighting resilience, recovery, and adaptation efforts.

Mangroves and their services are at risk from tropical cyclones and sea level rise under climate change - Communications Earth & Environment Nearly half of global mangrove areas will be threatened by climate change-induced changes in tropical cyclone disturbance and sea level rise by 2100, with relevant ecosystem services exposed to higher...

Great study led by @sarahhuelsen.bsky.social!
Not all mangroves are equally at risk from tropical cyclones and sea level rise — but those providing the most ecosystem services often are. 🌿 🌪️
www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Did you know that neural networks predict observations better than they predict the climate models they were trained on? Cool paper by my office mate @emilygordynz.bsky.social!

I'm honored and happy to have been awarded the @ethzurich.bsky.social Medal for my doctoral thesis, "Unraveling Unknowns in Tropical Cyclone Risk Assessment."

"Engraziel fetg" to my doctoral committee and WCR group colleagues 💙.

www.research-collection.ethz.ch/handle/20.50...

Here's your @eurogeosciences.bsky.social 2025 reminder: submit your abstract now to our session on societal responses to extreme weather events 🌪 🌡 🌏 🔥

➡ Deadline: 15 January 2025
➡ Conference: 27 April - 2 May 2025, Vienna
➡ lnkd.in/dg6qBAKz

@colognaviktoria.bsky.social

Probabilistic weather forecasting with machine learning - Nature GenCast, a probabilistic weather model using artificial intelligence for weather forecasting, has greater skill and speed than the top operational medium-range weather forecast in the world and provid...

Impressed by GenCast, the ML-based weather forecasting model www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Curious @deep-mind.bsky.social Since it penalizes deviations from the truth, could a complementary risk-optimized model improve its ability to capture uncertainty and better represent extreme events?

Three-time Olympian, but a total rookie on Bluesky ;) Thanks for the love!

Hello new (& old 💙) followers!
I’m a researcher in weather and climate risks, modeling the interaction between hazard, exposure and vulnerability to understand the risks and impacts of extreme weather—and how they may change in a warming world and with socio-economic development.
Happy to connect! 🌟

📢Call for ABSTRACTS for @eurogeosciences.bsky.social

Submit your #interdisciplinary contributions that address societal responses to extreme weather events 🌪️🌏🥵⛈️🔥

➡️Deadline: 15 January 2025
➡️Conference: 27 April - 2 May 2025, Vienna
➡️https://tinyurl.com/eejef6vk

#EGU25