Happy Tax Day, New York. We’re taxing the rich.

🚨New Working Paper🚨 "Economists Should Fix the Economy" coming soon.

I fielded a study, with NORC at the University of Chicago, that shows that 92% of Americans think economists should be involved in economic policy —they only disagree on how much.

#EconSky

DiCello Levitt, Co-Counsel File First Antitrust Class Action Against Vail Resorts and Alterra Over Epic and Ikon Ski Pass Pricing DiCello Levitt, co‑counsel file first antitrust class action against Vail Resorts and Alterra, alleging inflated prices.

A new antitrust case against Vail and Alterra takes aim at Epic and Ikon pass pricing.

Core issue: bundling + ecosystem power

Cheap season passes, but very high day tickets → steering demand, locking in consumers, and squeezing independents

dicellolevitt.com/dicello-levi...

Small Benefit to US from Rising Oil Prices

While the US produces far more oil today than in past shocks, a study of ‘22 shows price rises are just accumulated as profits rather than spent on labor or capex, creating little economic lift.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/small-bene...

Mayor Mamdani prays alongside people in custody and staff at Rikers Island.

People in custody pray together.

Rikers Island staff prepare a dining table for iftar.

Mayor Mamdani shakes hands with a person in custody across a dining table where other people in custody eat together.

Earlier this week, I had the honor of breaking fast at Rikers Island with New Yorkers in custody. It was a night that will stay with me for quite some time.
 
In a system too often defined by what it takes, I was reminded of what it means to give—mercy, dignity, and humanity.

Eid Mubarak, New York.

How many more American soldiers and Iranian civilians need to die before Democrats will drop their Epstein inquiry?

As climate change accelerates "fire weather," we are witnessing a global shift toward successional traps—dehydrated landscapes locked in a cycle of frequent, high-intensity burning.
#climatechange #wildfire #firemanagement #hydrology #watermanagement #mesophication #bioticpump #deforestation

I see US-ISR forces targeted two Iranian refineries and two storage tanks from an ISW report, as well as counter strikes from Iran on some Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure, but no numbers while skimming. I’m curious what the extent is compared to the oil targets in the Gulf War.

@rcsmitheco.bsky.social I concede, $100 may even be conservative.

Carney, on behalf of economists everywhere: “our plans are measured in centuries”

Funnily enough, market opened at exactly that $80 dollar mark and is settling lower.

I’m seeing a real time current price at $76 a barrel (Brent crude) - lower than that earlier 80$ estimate but in the ballpark.

We are currently seeking organizational and individual support for our FY27 Funding Recommendation Letter and hope you will join us in asking for more robust funding for BLS. We are asking Congress to approve $754 million for BLS in FY27 which is a 5% increase over FY26. These funds will allow BLS to train new staff, implement delayed modernization efforts, and sustain response rates in multiple programs. We are accepting sign-ons from both organizations and individuals no later than COB Wednesday March 4. Please select the appropriate link below to read the full letter and sign-on.

Care about Americans, employment, earnings, consumer prices, your local or our national economy?

@usbls.bsky.social empowers us to better recognize these & make decisions.

Consider signing onto Friends of BLS's new letter to Congress re its budget.

And spread the word.

Iran has many targets; tankers are being struck but prob aren’t high priority targets. The IRGC leadership has been hit hard and US/IL forces have prioritized launch sites to minimize retaliation. Hard to forecast, think it’ll be best to wait and see.

20% reduction in all traffic, assuming also 20% less oil tankers, then 4% is sensible. A decent point estimate for oil’s price elasticity is .2 (range is .1 to .3) so all other things equal, the reduction could drive prices up 20%, or about $80. Still doubtful it’ll hit the magic $100 mark

Map sources: www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/...

It is Bab el-Mendeb strait as of about 3am EST last night. Here is Hormuz as of 5pm EST today - yes vessels have dropped anchor, but through traffic in the strait is down only about 20% according to this article. gcaptain.com/the-first-36...

The First 36 Hours: Strait of Hormuz Becomes a War Zone, Tankers Hit, Shipping Giants Halt Gulf Transits The world’s most vital energy artery is under siege. Following coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and top military commanders, the Strait of....

I doubt Trump wants to be known for a Middle Eastern conflict gone wrong, and will try to avoid oil prices over even $90 a barrel for extended periods (his reelection chances would plummet). Here is that news source for the traffic data: gcaptain.com/the-first-36...

While the Bab el-Mendeb 2023 attacks are not a perfect 1:1 comparison, they are still a very relevant recent event. Ships are still in Hormuz area, but many are anchored on either side of the strait. According to one news source, traffic in the strait is down about 20% in the past 24 hours.

Lot of ships, including oil tankers, still in the area. If the Q4 2023 Houthi attacks are any indication, oil prices won’t move massively.

Lot of ships, including oil tankers, still in the area. If the Q4 2023 Houthi attacks are any indication, oil prices won’t move massively.

Lot of ships in the area for effectively closed. If the 2023 attacks are any indication, it likely wont cause a massive an impact on oil prices.

My co-author Charles Hodgson (Yale) is hiring a full-time pre-doc to work on projects focusing on the role of information externalities.

The hired researcher will meet regularly with faculty and receive dedicated research training & career development skills.

Application👇

I think intro Econ classes miss a core pillar when teaching market clearing equilibrium: the beauty of supply equating demand is not stable, it is a shaky eq that’ll shake from a slight breeze.

If protestors continued the general strike, and especially if they combined it with a general boycott of national brands, the ai market bubble could have popped pretty easily.

The US dollar is weakening which makes both GDP and real GDP look better than it is. Economics, and especially macro economics, takes time to move. A “black-Tuesday” like event will likely be from a demand driven event. That was Wall Street’s fear on Friday with the general strike.

Redfin: Over 40,000 U.S. home-purchase agreements were canceled in December, equal to 16.3% of homes that went under contract that month—the highest December percentage in records dating back to 2017. #EconSky

Incredibly useful blog post by the American Economic Association’s data editor on using and reusing code within the same project:

aeadataeditor.github.io/posts/2024-07-19-functio...

We are pleased to announce that a keynote speaker for the April Cambridge Disinformation Summit is 2001 Nobel Economist, Professor Joseph E. Stiglitz. Professor Stiglitz is a University Professor, teaching at the Columbia Business School, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, and the School of International and Public Affairs. Professor Stiglitz will discuss systemic economic risks from disinformation and from platforms that amplify or monetize disinformation. The Summit is hosted by the Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy, The Psychometrics Centre - University of Cambridge, the University of Cambridge Social Decision-Making Lab, and the Cambridge Judge Business School Centre for Financial Reporting & Accountability.

We are pleased to announce that a keynote speaker for the April Cambridge Disinformation Summit is 2001 Nobel Economist, Professor Joseph E. Stiglitz.

Professor Stiglitz will discuss systemic economic risks from disinformation and from platforms that amplify or monetize disinformation.

The US dollar has tumbled to a four month low. #EconSky