Hurricane Melissa was about 40 mph stronger because of a warmer Caribbean!?
That’s what a new study in pre-print claims (peer-review not completed yet)… 1/

a chart showing rising emissions after each crisis

The 2020s have already seen two major fossil fuel shocks. In 2022, Russia, the world’s largest fossil fuel exporter, invaded Ukraine. In 2026, the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s largest oil and LNG supply route, was shut by the US-Israel war with Iran. The parallels with the 1970s oil shocks are striking. But so too is the difference. For the first time, there are scalable, cost-competitive alternatives. Solar, wind, batteries, EVs and other electrotech offer a permanent route out of fossil dependence. The shock has jolted the electric age forward. But the response is a choice: lean into local, electric security, or reach back to the old fossil playbook.

Something we need to make really clear is that there is no guarantee that fossil fuel crises end up as a net benefit for climate action, emissions reductions or even just simple technological growth

ie - "The response is a choice" @ember-energy.org

ember-energy.org/latest-insig...

Sometimes, throwing money at the problem is the right solution.

Back-of-the-envelope calculation: control of Hormuz nets 🇮🇷 approx $40B/year.

Anyone have a different number?

How Pakistan’s solar boom is shielding it from worst of Iran war crisis A quarter of Pakistani households are now using solar panels. This insulates millions of families from the energy crisis

Pakistan’s solar boom is shielding millions from the Iran war energy crunch ☀️🛡️

With 1 in 4 households now using solar, farmers in places like Balochistan are switching from diesel pumps to solar-powered irrigation, keeping crops and livelihoods secure.

Renewables = resilience.

Cheers to them for thinking ahead.

I need every vacillating Caribbean leader to get this message quick-quick.

A thread -- which world leaders are calling for a shift to clean energy as a security investment in light of Iran War?

First up, French President Macron: "...everything we do to more toward the transition is also about reducing our dependence.." (1/x)

#cleanenergyisnationalsecurity

… and I just remembered it's April Fools Day. This is a sign. Gonna do something else with the time.

The politics / policy junky in me wants to listen to the speech tonight. The sensible part of me knows that it'll be a low-value stream of grievance, nonsense, and lies.

Which side of me will win? We'll see tonight.

Small language note:

Isn't that an odd choice of title for a video? An odd adversarial phrasing?

Not China vs USA.
Not Xi vs Trump.
China vs. Trump.

Makes one think.

How China Plays the Long Game Against Trump YouTube video by Bloomberg Originals

How 🇨🇳 plays the long game vs. 🇺🇸 youtu.be/ukWwV5peW14?...

CARICOM may be having its own crisis.

The Baby Shark Jauz Remix is hard. Unreasonably so.

WATCH: Hegseth prays for 'overwhelming violence' against enemies YouTube video by PBS NewsHour

"You shall not make wrongful use of the name of the Lord your God, for the Lord will not acquit anyone who misuses his name."

Exodus 20:7 (NRSV-CI)

youtu.be/2NrJU2aqGvQ?...

"Blockading oil routes" sounds an awful lot like an act of war vs. 🇨🇳. One hopes that doesn't happen.

It seems to me that markets are (1) mispricing the risks of the Iran war; (2) far too confident in the words of an inveterate liar.

But what do I know?

The differences between 🇺🇸 and 🇨🇳 with respect to robotics and AI are so striking. One seems to focus on consumer products while the other focuses on industrial automation.

I spoke with my father this afternoon about where the world is heading. We're pessimistic, but we're ready.

To ignore renewables at this moment and double down on fossil fuels is to risk irrelevance.

I’m sorry, but this is like seriously funny

1/ Disruptions mean countries will rush to exit US-led oil order

Worst case scenario for oil companies (best for rest of us) is that people permanently shift...what they call “demand destruction“

i.e short term pain but Long: Iran war will accelerate ongoing STRUCTURAL shift to solar+EVs+batteries

As I get older, I see ever more clearly the depthlessness and ahistoricity of culture that Fredric Jameson wrote about.

RE, EVs and storage are the future.

India’s Modi Calls for Lesser Dependence on Imported Energy India needs to become self-reliant and less dependent on imported energy, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said as the war in the Middle East poses a challenge for policymakers in the world’s third-larges...

India's President Modi:

"India needs to be come less dependent on imported energy...the push to develop renewable energy and electric vehicles would cut [India's] fuel needs." (3/x)

#cleanenergyisnationalsecurity

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I hope CARICOM is ready for the coming Cuban crisis.

Vibe coding a little python script to improve my work flow. Wish me luck.

Reading up on the sources of the 🇮🇷🇺🇸 conflict, I came across the idea of gharbzadegi and the work of Ahman Fardid and Jalal Al-e-Ahmad. It's striking how narratives of external agents poisoning a people (and the subsequent need for purification) appear to reoccur across people, time and cultures.

The U.S.-Iran war is the biggest oil supply disruption in history The global oil market will need to balance by destroying demand through sharply rising oil prices, according to Rapidan Energy.

The U.S.-Iran war is the biggest oil supply disruption in history.

www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/t...

The answer: it's possible if you face no consequences.