“Most of the human cost of the past few months cannot be undone through state assistance. But the economic damage from Operation Metro Surge provides an opportunity for the state to take meaningful, reparative action.” 👏👏👏 — @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social, Research Director at NSPA
Source: WCCO
NEW REPORT: State data confirms that Operation Metro Surge had a damaging impact on Minnesota’s economy, particularly for workers and businesses in the Twin Cities.
northstarpolicy.org/metro-surge-...
Today we testified before the MN House Workforce, Labor & Economic Development Committee on our research on Generative AI’s impacts on MN workers.
The testimony comes as lawmakers introduce bills to set guardrails for AI in the workplace.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kh4B...
800,000 Minnesota workers are at high risk of exposure to generative AI.
AI is rapidly reshaping workplaces but Minnesota lawmakers have yet to pass any AI regulations or worker protections.
Our Research Director outlined the paths for moving forward on WCCO:
www.youtube.com/shorts/lsCLK...
"Marching alongside of you has been the greatest joy of my life." The Pitt star Noah Wyles gives a big shoutout to labor unions during his SAG Actor Awards speech 👏
really enjoyed this data piece from my colleague @alyssachen.bsky.social digging into the early estimates of the economic impact of operation metro surge: minnesotareformer.com/2026/03/02/m...
the early estimates of economic damage from the surge are based on some broad assumptions and back-of-the-napkin math. a more complete picture will emerge over the next year or so — but @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social says lawmakers can't wait that long to send relief.
The world could be such a nice place if we allowed it. It's all so goddamn unnecessary. There's no need for any of it. It's so beautiful here. It should be so cool to be alive
@wailinwong.bsky.social @planetmoney.bsky.social @npr.org featured @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social's & my estimate of DHS causing $106 million in lost wages for MSP metro workers as her Indicator of the week.
Thanks for doing such a great job communicating the results.
www.npr.org/2026/02/27/n...
I am so proud of the team at @northstarpolicy.org. Churning out ground breaking research on the taxpayer cost of Operation Metro Surge, the economic devastation wrought, the threat posed by AI to working Minnesotans. Testifying at the Capitol, everywhere in the media.
TCRG Webinar: @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social and @aaronsojourner.org on the Economic Impact of Operation Metro Surge. WebEx, March 18, 12 Noon. RSVP at tcrgmarch18.eventbrite.com
Great conversation on aligning AI innovation with worker welfare in Minnesota. Hoping that the three D's of AI regulation (displacement, decision-making, and digital surveillance) catch on and lead us to some commonsense reforms!
Social Indicators of the Surge — Labor Edition
@aaronsojourner.org & @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social
show how the DHS surge reduced the # of employees working, hours worked, and # of businesses open in Mpls-Saint Paul, costing an estimated $106 million in lost wages. northstarpolicy.org/labor-outcom...
Looks like some very important research on the effect of the occupation of Minneapolis-Saint Paul
The economic costs of a police state
BREAKING: In just six weeks, Minnesota workers lost over $100 million in wages due to Operation Metro Surge.
This means millions of dollars didn’t make it to Minnesota families and small businesses, a conservative estimate that likely understates the full impact.
From the report: "The figure above shows a set of day-specific estimated effects of the agent surge on employees working measured in percentage points. Each blue dot represents how many percentage points away the number of employees clocking in was from its expected value. Expectations are measured based on trends in other metro areas with similar trends in the years leading up to this period. The grey area describes a margin of error."
The DHS agent surge in Minnesota reduced employees working in the MSP metro by 2.8%, total hours worked by 1.9%, and open business locations by 1.7% through mid-February. Estimated impact: $106 million in lost wages.
new research from @aaronsojourner.org and @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social
This is such important work, and practically in real time, which is very important. Also, shows economists can apply our skills to aid the resistance!
Many workers have missed shifts without jobs being destroyed making it challenging to measure labor impacts with conventional sources.
We use real-time daily data from Homebase to measure impacts. Thanks to UChicago and Homebase for making the data available.
#EconSky #NumbersDay
As Minnesota policymakers debate relief efforts to help the state's small businesses and residents recover from the federal government's occupation, they should ensure any assistance is commensurate with the scale of harm done.
New research with @aaronsojourner.org of the @upjohninstitute.bsky.social posted on @northstarpolicy.org's blog. We find that Operation Metro Surge caused declines in employees working, hours worked, and businesses open, leading to an estimated $106 million wage loss for Twin Cities workers.
Our new report makes three things clear:
1. AI plays an increasingly large role in MN workers' lives.
2. Workers are anxious about this role and believe new regulations are needed.
3. MN policymakers need to pass commonsense laws to align AI innovation with worker welfare.
The damage compounds:
• Missed paychecks reduce consumer spending.
• Child care disruptions prevent parents from working.
• Housing construction declines worsen affordability.
• Food processing slowdowns affect Minnesota farmers.
Our own @aaronsojourner.org and @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social of North Star Policy Action have published an analysis on the economic impacts of Operation Metro Surge.
Lots of caveats within these results due to thin and provisional data. We're looking forward to more data in the future to inform a more robust analysis. Please send along any ideas for other data sources, as we try to quantify the economic harm done to MN communities.
New analysis w/ @aaronsojourner.org finds consumer spending declined by 2.9% in MN in Jan 2026 due to Operation Metro Surge, resulting in a loss of $626 million. Bigger losses in food and accommodation spending (3.8% in MN, 4.1% in Hennepin County).
northstarpolicy.org/impact-metro...
Twin Cities' (Hennepin+Ramsey) counties filings for evictions up 40% in Jan 2026 over 2023-24 baseline @evictionlab.bsky.social.
In raw counts, +9% to 1,330 in Jan 2026 from 1,220 in prior month.
In baseline years (2023 & 2024), filings lower in Jans than Decs.
evictionlab.org/eviction-tra...
Operation Metro Surge may be ending but the long-term human and economic impacts are still unfolding. Federal officials have announced that immigration enforcement in Minnesota will draw down, but ICE activity remains in the state and it’s not yet clear how conditions on the ground are changing.
