We are entering the next stage of the strategic breal-up between Europe and the US:

How to build public support for defence spending in Europe Strategies for building a national consensus around higher defence investments and the trade-offs required.

This is an extremely important new paper by @armida.bsky.social 🚨

Defense can not be an elite project!

Creating broad and deep public support is essential… not just to justify spending but also to create a better pool for military personnel and a convincing reason for compulsory military service.

We need a strategic Europeanization of NATO:

• Gradual Europeanization of selected NATO commands (glad to see this happening with Naples & Norfolk)
• Expand ISR capabilities to strengthen autonomy
• Gradually reduce dependence on US assets, moving toward joint procurement of strategic enablers

To Ensure Its Security, Europe Needs a Stronger Hand in NATO Under Donald Trump, American national interests and NATO’s multilateral security commitments are not aligned. While Europe cannot – and should not – reject the United States, it must take ownership of...

Thrilled to share my first-ever @dgap.org publication co-authored with Patrick Keller and @emilarchambault.bsky.social🎉

The key takeaway: US security guarantees should be a bonus for Europe, not its foundation. This is at the heart of why Europe must take more responsibility for its own defense

Maybe the combination of these three factors could perhaps even form the basis for an effective strategy for the Europeans?

Europeans spend the last days pretending that their deployment to Greenland was not against the US.

Trump, as always, is sensing a weakness and will force them to come clean. I understand the diplomatic hesitation, but time for Europeans to make clear, unequivocal stance.

Greenland and US Annexation Threats

Who’s going to defend Greenland (assuming it wants to be defended)?

Does the mutual solidarity clause apply to Greenland (and who decides about it)?
verfassungsblog.de/greenland-an...

Official confirmation of German participation in European troop deployment to Greenland. First Bundeswehr soldiers to arrive tomorrow. 🇪🇺 / NATO solidarity in action.

Ich glaube aber, dass sich vor einer militärischen Eskalation, einer Intervention mit militärischen Mitteln, noch ganz viele andere Möglichkeiten ergeben", sagt @beckermax.bsky.social im "im Loop"-Podcast zu den 🇺🇸 Plänen bezüglich #Grönland. Von einem Deal bis zu einer Beeinflussung ... /1

The US has declared rhetorical war on the EU The calls from America this weekend to destroy the EU are revealing. They hate the union because it's the only thing that can keep European countries from being Russian or American vassals.

The calls from America this weekend to "abolish the EU" are for one simple reason: the EU is the only thing that can keep European nation-states from becoming Russian or American vassals.

The trouble with FCAS: Why Europe’s fighter jet project is not taking off The disagreement over the Franco-German-Spanish fighter aircraft system, FCAS, shows that when it comes to building a European defence industry, political will is not enough…

FCAS started out as a project to bring France and Germany together, but quickly turned into the opposite.
This week, I tried to explain in *two* articles what is going on.

For ECFR: 👇
For WPR: www.worldpoliticsreview.com/fcas-europe-...

The "firewall" in the EU Parliament effectively no longer exists.

Just this week we had several uses of the centre-right to far-right majority again. In our new op-ed for @zeit.de, Sophia Russack and I analyze this "Venezuela majority" and why the EP is becoming increasingly unpredictable:

This statement highlights part of the problem of the EU's position on Ukraine and the 'Trump peace plan' - as first important achievement it stresses the efficient coordination amongst Europeans, and the resultiing unity.

But intra-European coordination and unity are not an end to themselves.

Neither a Russia nor a Ukraine expert (and at home with a sick kid) but everything I am reading about the Ukraine 'peace' plan reads as much as a capitulation for Ukraine as a capitulation for Europe.

Grim, but also a last chance for Europeans to show their ability to say no to Trump.

Puts one of the fears of additional European defence spending into focus: Instead of spending in a more coordinated way, the additional funds incentivise industry towards more defence inflation and more protection of their national fiefdoms.

From the creeping integration of the far-right into the EPP seeking majorities on central EU policies with the far-right.

bsky.app/profile/nvon...

The Creeping Integration of Far-right Parties in Europe Where Far-right Parties Are Integrated into the EU System and Where They Are Not

Over the summer, @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and I wrote about the 'creeping integration of the far-right' into EU decision-making.

Now it looks increasingly likely that this week a major part of the Omnibus package will be passed by an EPP-far-right majority.

Frisch erschienen: Die Europawahl 2024 – Rechtsruck im Schatten des Krieges Ein Blog über die Demokratie in Europa

Der Aufstieg der Rechtsaußen-Parteien war die auffälligste Geschichte der #Europawahl 2024 – aber nicht die einzige.

In einem Sammelband von MICHAEL KAEDING, MANUEL MÜLLER und ALEX HOPPE analysieren 67 Autor:innen in 38 Kapiteln die vielen Facetten der Wahl.

Jetzt auch auf Deutsch erhältlich:

Here we go, another acronym to memorize 🙈

By now a regular feature of policy-making in the European Parliament - the centre-right EPP at least threatening or actually voting with the far-right, which offers alternative majorities.

This significantly moves EU policy to the right, and risks the pro-European majority of the centre.

Schrumpfen statt wachsen? Eine neue französische Regierung steht, und zwei Parteien aus der bisherigen Minderheitsregierung drohen auszusteigen, LR und UDI. Die Opposition kocht. Was ist passiert?

Kurzfassung und Erklärungen im 🧵

EU Analytics - September 2025 review With the far-right still split on Ukraine, the centre-right working with the far-right on Colombia, and a first Return of the “German Vote” under Merz

In my substack EU-Analytics, I now do monthly reviews of EU voting in the EP and the Council. September 2025 edition is here, with a closer look at voting on Ukraine, overall EP changes - with another centre-right to far-right majority - and a surprise German vote in the Council:

Important analysis of the creeping shift to the right. Decisive factor will be Christian Democratic #EPP, writes @nvondarza.bsky.social Most important, EPP under Manfred Weber (CSU) has got the choice. His coalitions with the far-right are not a must. EPP could easily form majorities without them.

The creeping integration of far right parties in 🇪🇺 within the last couple of years and the crucial role of the @eppgroup.bsky.social Give it a read 👇

The Creeping Integration of Far-right Parties in Europe Where Far-right Parties Are Integrated into the EU System and Where They Are Not

Before #EP2024, I predicted the far right to gain power in EU institutions "not through sweeping victory, but creeping normalisation":
fiia.fi/en/publicati...

Now, @beckermax.bsky.social et al. have analysed the "creeping integration of far-right parties in Europe".

I wish I'd been more wrong.

And sorry for not proving you wrong! Next time @nvondarza.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and I will do better ;-)

Your analysis was also a great help to us in our preparations!

Before last week, NATO's art. 4 had been activated seven times. Now it has been activated twice in less than ten days, by Poland over the drone incursions and Estonia over the air space by violation by Russian fighter jets.

Die schleichende Integration von Rechtsaußenparteien in Europa Wo Rechtsaußenparteien in das EU-System eingebunden – und wo sie isoliert werden

Der Einfluss von Rechtsaußenparteien in der EU wächst. Ob sich die Union weiterhin auf ein proeuropäisches Lager stützen kann, hängt v.a. von der EVP ab, schreiben @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social und @nvondarza.bsky.social @swp-europe.bsky.social.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

Schlüsselakteur bleibt die #EVP. Sie entscheidet, ob Rechtsaußenparteien zu stabilen Mehrheiten werden oder das proeuropäische Zentrum hält. Ihre Strategie wird maßgeblich bestimmen, ob die #EU Kurs halten kann – oder politisch schleichend nach rechts außen kippt.