Time of each game!

Using historical ClubElo ratings, I’ve put together what I think is the most comprehensive analysis of Champions League draw difficulty.

Arsenal’s draw is certainly kind, but it is unlikely to challenge these guys in the easiest-route stakes.

www.nytimes.com/athletic/710...

Newcastle’s trip to Qarabag tonight is the furthest any PL side has ever travelled in the Champions League.

Took a look at how English teams fare on their long-distance journeys, in a CL campaign that has already logged 100,000+ more air miles than 2024-25.

www.nytimes.com/athletic/705...

The FA Cup draw is random, but that doesn't mean some clubs don't get it easier than others

@conor-oneill.bsky.social has crunched the numbers:

🔴 Arsenal's challenging third round history
🔵 Chelsea's difficult passage to 2020 final

🔗 www.nytimes.com/athletic/704...

High blocks, low blocks, everywhere you look...blocks.

Using data from SkillCorner, I break down how each side likes to set up out of possession, and what it means for their playing style.

@theathleticfc.bsky.social

Piece here: www.nytimes.com/athletic/703...

Thanks Michael!

The Athletic FC Tactics Podcast: A cold, windy night in Stoke: How weather impacts football This week — we’re diving into the world of weather. How do the elements impact what happens on the pitch? From the rainy, cold and windy nights at Stoke.To the scorching heat of the 1994 Worl...

NEW POD 🚨

All about the weather! ☀️

How does it impact football, tactics, play styles? 🌧️

With @zonal-marking.bsky.social, @conor-oneill.bsky.social, @markcarey93.bsky.social & @michaeljbailey.bsky.social

pod.fo/e/388f85

Feel that the narrative of shots outside the area should be discouraged based on their low xG values is over-egged. Working the ball into better positions has its own probabilities attached to it too

Spectacular and sustainable? Why the Premier League is feasting on long-range goals Why we need to look beyond expected goals to explain a better conversion rate from outside the box this season

Teams are taking fewer shots from outside the box than ever in the Premier League, yet long-range goals are at their highest since 2013–14.

Explored why this is happening:

www.nytimes.com/athletic/702...

Dominic Calvert-Lewis has scored six goals from a tiny part of the pitch — the smallest goalscoring area of any player in Europe this season.

@thom-harris.bsky.social breaks down why he is so effective at creating chances there.

🔗 www.nytimes.com/athletic/691...

I was actually the specific nerd who introduced this into SSN during my time there lol

Yeah, nonsense comment was directed at outliers rather than the process as a whole, which I think is good. More my gripe about how it’s interpreted - saw an account ardently declare that Villa and Wolves should be five points apart

And I argue that by looking at how xG is accumulated, not just the raw total. A third of Wolves’ xG is when they’re already two down - probably when the opponent takes their foot off the gas. Villa meanwhile are happy to sit on their (sometimes fortuitous) leads

I wasn’t trying to show that the expected win model was any way superior, it uses pretty similar underlying logic.

I think either approach correlates reasonably well with perfromance, but I picked out Wolves and Villa as examples that are obviously wrong

Used Liverpool’s tendency to “win” games on xG as a topical Trojan horse to debunk the concept of winning on xG, and why xPoints tables often produce league standings that are clearly nonsense

www.nytimes.com/athletic/688...

Proximity to the nearest beach

Well we still have to qualify....

How one of the most dramatic and jaw-dropping weeks in Irish football history unfolded Five goals from Troy Parrott stole the show – but it was a group effort from Heimir Hallgrimsson's side that has kept World Cup hopes alive

If the Republic of Ireland's defeat to Armenia was unthinkable, then defeating Portugal 2-0 and coming from behind to beat Hungary 3-2 and snatch a World Cup play-off place stretched reality to breaking point.

@conor-oneill.bsky.social on one of the most dramatic weeks in Irish footballing history.

How one of the most dramatic and jaw-dropping weeks in Irish football history unfolded Five goals from Troy Parrott stole the show – but it was a group effort from Heimir Hallgrimsson's side that has kept World Cup hopes alive

Managed to tear myself away from the Parrott goal on infinite loop long enough to write about Ireland’s madcap week.

A remarkable resurrection.

www.nytimes.com/athletic/681...

Plugged out of the football matrix during my hols this week, but wrote a piece on managerial sackings.

Ranked sackings based on how deserved they were, measured the new manager bounce, and showed why their employment is most shaky on Mondays in December

www.nytimes.com/athletic/668...

Mason Melia: What Tottenham’s January signing will bring, plans for his immediate future The 18-year-old striker has already made a name for himself in Ireland - how quickly can he do the same in the Premier League?

Lots of cautionary tales of Irish youngsters failing to make the grade in England, but it really is hard to manage expectations with Mason Melia.

Profiled the Tottenham-bound St Pat's striker, easily the best young talent I have ever seen in LOI

www.nytimes.com/athletic/670...

Thanks very much John!

Maiden bluesky post!

I analysed shot-blocking in the Premier League. Looked at:

- Arsenal/Liverpool’s contrasting approach to defending long-range efforts
- Why Man Utd struggle inside the box
- The PL leading the way in old-school, bodies-on-the-line defending

www.nytimes.com/athletic/664...