We helped re-analyse some data for the recent rebuttal to Wallach and Lundgren (2025), which pulled into question whether introduced predators were implicated in the extinction of native Australian mammals.
quantecol.com.au/portfolio/ex...
...default to using mortality rates. Life is better with rates, and the approach scales beautifully with multistate models, where you can simply multiply the transition rate matrix (Q) with the survey intervals (tau) and matrix exponentiate it to get the probability matrix, P = exp(Q * tau). 2/2
By default, mark-recapture models parameterise the survival process with survival probabilities. This is unfortunate, because logit-linear survival functions aren't time invariant, and you can't just exponentiate multistate transition probabilities like you can survival. Instead, we should... 1/2
