History appears to be repeating itself. After the high of reaching the Carabao cup final in 22/23 and this year, #NUFC end up approaching the final with a string of patchy performances, no momentum, and some worrying headloss moments from individual players.
Worrying trend for an ambitious team.
Gordon only has himself to blame there. Stupid decision that will have massive implications on our cup final chances and the push for Europe. #NUFC
A game of two halves at the weekend. Just fortunate that #NUFC scored 4 in the first half and eeked out a win. #NEWNFO
Underrated outcome from #MCINEW, we've gone from level on goal difference to 8 goals worse off. #NUFC
A bad performance at both ends of the pitch led to a bad result. Not the end of the world but a kick up the arse for the matches leading up to the cup final. #MCINEW #NUFC
That one was a bit more definitive. #NUFC
Think we're lucky to be given that. Linesman that gave it wasn't in line with the goal and it even looked close on replays. #NUFC
WE'RE GOING TO WEMBLEYYYYY! 🤩🤩
Is this a (misguided) expectation that these teams will eventually boom in value like other sports have in recent decades? Or is there something more sinister or money-laundery about it?
An important bounce back from the Bournemouth game. Not super convincing but 3 points nonetheless. #SOUNEW
Not the result Liverpool will have hoped for, and not one many will have predicted. A fair result in the end. #LIVMUN
An unnecessarily nervy match for #NUFC that still ultimately ended in a win. The amazing run of results continues.
Then finally 17th to 20th.
And 13th to 16th.
Followed by 9th to 12th.
Then 5th to 8th.
A look at actual points and expected points (based on xG data from each match) for all PL teams so far this season, in order of current league position.
Firstly, the top 4.
#NUFC are on an astounding run of form, shutting down opposing attacks and scoring for fun themselves. The shot creation and conversion data for games since Brentford are below.
worldfootballR to scrape the data from FBRef, then Python to create the model and the chart.
And the expected points model results from the 23/24 season.
The same as above but with PSxG data.
Created a simple expected points model for #NUFC based on this season's xG data.
After a noticeable dip in previous weeks, the team seem to be improving at converting chances into points. Unsurprising that this coincides with the return of an in-form Isak.
Newcastle aren't the first team to concede a bunch of goals at Brentford. A fairly even game xG wise, difference being how clinical Brentford are when they get the chance. #BRENEW
