Quick math: 20–12 = 8.
That’s an 8M barrel/day oil shortfall after Strait closures. The fix? “Demand destruction” — cut use via policy or sky-high prices. Some countries are already there, and the U.S. may be next if this drags on.
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
Woof
My March Fuel Trends recap is live: 20K+ U.S. stations/c-stores, full view of Iran-war price impacts, and a key consumer shift—transactions are up, but premium/midgrade buyers are trading down to regular. www.upside.com/business/ret...
It's all retailers, not just gas stations, affected by rising gas prices. When gas prices increase, customers make up 80-100% of that lost money by cutting back in non-fuel discretionary spending.
www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/how-gl...
Gas prices are high—but likely still lower than a pure supply shock would imply. Why? Markets are pricing in a relatively short war and eventual supply recovery. If that changes, gas could climb a lot more. Video for the breakdown.
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
High gas prices can squeeze food budgets, but so far we’re not seeing a big pullback in spending. Upside data show c-store demand dipped briefly, then rebounded. The bigger risk may be ahead: higher fuel and fertilizer costs could pressure prices and retailers.
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
Gas is above $4, and that changes behavior fast. People may not buy much less gas, but they’ll buy differently: smaller fill-ups, more price shopping, more loyalty use, and tighter budgets elsewhere. I break it down here: upside.com/strait-of-hormuz
It's official: a regular gallon of gasoline in the US now costs over $4. My recent video explaining how this is going to affect consumer behavior is ways you might now expect is now featured by LinkedIn News. www.linkedin.com/news/story/g...
BREAKING: $4 is back. The national average has just reached $4/gal according to GasBuddy, the highest since August 8, 2022. The rise is now the largest monthly increase GasBuddy has ever recorded: $1.059/gal for gasoline, $1.701/gal for diesel.
I track fuel demand for a living. One surprise: even when gas prices spike, drivers usually do not cut back much. Fuel demand is highly inelastic, so instead of driving less, people tend to adjust how and when they fill up.
Diesel is hurting truckers even more than drivers. Why’s it rising faster than gas? The diesel market was tighter when the war began. And because diesel powers freight, farming, and shipping, higher costs could ripple through to consumer prices.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases may help a little, but they won’t solve this crisis. The IEA’s 400M-barrel release equals only a few days of global oil supply, and U.S. barrels will be released gradually. Real relief at the pump depends on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
@emilypeck.bsky.social Here's a "number of the week" for you if I've ever heard one! Courtesy of new research published by the NBER: www.nber.org/system/files...
Regular gas prices are rough right now, but the other bad news is how higher diesel costs seep into the costs of everyday goods. This can take time to appear, but as it does, we'll all be paying for it.
Read the full story from Scripps: www.scrippsnews.com/politics/eco...
A few days after the Iran war began, a gas station cashier told me while I was buying coffee: “You should get gas too — everyone nearby raised prices by 30 cents and we haven’t yet.” Oil shocks hit fast, but stations usually change prices only once a day.
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
I'm honored to have been featured in a LinkedIn News roundup debunking the claim that gas stations are benefiting from surging gas prices. (Spoiler: they hate it as much as drivers.)
www.linkedin.com/news/story/g...
To steel man this decision, I think it would be net good to replace clickbait with more informative headlines
Higher gas prices are painful, but that does not automatically mean stations are gouging. Right now, the better explanation is higher crude and wholesale costs from the Iran-related supply shock, not fatter retail margins.
The Jones Act waiver may help marine-dependent fuel markets like Florida and Puerto Rico, but it’s too narrow to meaningfully lower gas prices nationwide. Good for logistics at the margin, not a game changer at your local pump.
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
Is fuel heading for a repeat of 2022? Hopefully not.
In 2022, ~14% of global oil (Russia) was disrupted by sanctions. Today, ~20% flows through Hormuz, but this shock may be shorter & prices started ~$20/bbl lower.
Big risk remains—but markets expect resolution. www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
Getting lots of questions on how the Middle East conflict is impacting U.S. gas prices.
1st of n videos: Why not just produce more oil?
~20% of global supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz—and it’s effectively closed. That ties OPEC’s hands. The U.S.? Not that simple.
The sophisticated empirical arguments against immigration are disproven, but all the objections that matter most politically are just complete nonsense that you don't need any complex analysis to reject...🧵
The spike in US #gasprices has been extremely close to the 2022 Russia/Ukraine spike. Through 12 days, the national average in 2022 rose ~75c/gal, while this time in 2026, prices are up an average ~70c/gal over the same time frame.
I surveyed 1,700+ consumers and 79% changed their shopping behavior in some way because of tariffs. The recent SCOTUS ruling won't change that anytime soon.
www.supermarketnews.com/grocery-tren...
What will it take for gas prices to fall?
Most ideas floating around right now are band-aids. The only sustainable solution is reopening tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Even then, retail gas prices will take time to adjust.
www.texastribune.org/2026/03/11/t...
For all of the attention on regular gas prices right now, not enough people are tracking movement in diesel. Distillate sales were in decline before the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and now rising prices add additional headwinds to the commercial transportation sector. www.upside.com/business/ret...
Consumers love loyalty-program value—so much that they join and use multiple programs in every category. It’s not just grocery: today’s uncommitted shopper is a store-hopper, spreading loyalty across many retailers.
money.usnews.com/money/person...
Kudos to the @budgetlab.bsky.social for breaking down where we stand following today's partial repeal of tariffs. It's clear, concise & current
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sta...
