Almost everybody contributed. Big night by Chase Burns. Hopes by Elly (x2), Hayes, Myers, Steer.
Myers, Elly, Stewart, Steer, Hayes all reached at least 3 times. Only Suarez didn’t reach. Only Nicolas pitched poorly, making a blowout closer late.
Will be fun to check out team offensive metrics.
The Cincinnati #Reds are 16-8, are further above .500 than the 2025 team ever reached, and tied the Dodgers and Braves for the most wins in MLB.
Elly hit his 8th homerun, tying Sal Stewart for the NL lead. Stewart also leads the NL in RBI and OPS, of course.
Ke’Bryan Hayes hit a homer, reached 3x.
Offer to conduct more in-game interviews with players to discuss how they feel about in game interviews.
The CF Myers, LF Friedl, Steer 1b/out switch has happened almost daily. But, unlike past choices, I don’t think team dreads reaching extras with Myers instead of Steer.
In prior seasons, sometimes it was more like replacing good bats with guys who couldn’t hit in AAA. 🤷🏻♂️
Amusingly Friedl’s time in LF (where he projects better, but has less experience, and a smaller sample size) drags down his defensive numbers.
But yeah, I agree. But it also helps that team mostly likes the bats of the defensive guys, too. Rather than views them as scrubs who can’t be asked to bat.
TJ Friedl is now up to a +2 DRS, 0 OAA, and 0 FRV in CF (140 innings).
He finished 2025 at -10 DRS, +1 OAA, and 0 FRV in 1295 innings. Your repeated reminder that rumors of his drastic dropoff in 2026 are NOT supported by the data. Still a pretty average CF with a poor arm.
Collier played 74 games, 308 PA in AA last season, with a 114 wRC+, but only 2 homeruns. He’s already hit 3 in 65 PA. I definitely think returning to AA was the right choice, but I hope he really starts to take off soon, and starts crushing AA pitching like I believe he can.
Three of the more interesting AA bats:
OF Austin Hendrick, 25 - 29.8 K%, 120 wRC+ in AA, similar to 2025
INF Leo Balcazar, 21 - 68 PA, 11.8 BB%, 17.6 K%, 89 wRC+. Not terrible, but hopefully starts crushing it.
1b/3b Cam Collier, 21 - 65 PA, 9.2 BB%, 26.2 K%, 89 wRC+. Already matched 2025 HRs.
Dodgers have Josue De Paula, Zyhir Hope, and Kendall George in AA. With Sirota and Charles Davalan in A+. So, a lot of outfield depth.
But, one might also hypothesize that they have some skepticism about Sirota at AA, and might try to sell high on him before July.
OF Mike Sirota, age 22 (formerly #Reds #87 overall pick in 2024)
2025 in A+: 155 PA, 6 HR, 21.3 BB%, 21.9 K%, 184 wRC+
2026 in A+: 58 PA, 0 HR, 17.2 BB%, 24.1 K%, 127 wRC+
I’m really curious about his return to A+, rather than promotion to AA. Perhaps a matter of (extreme) OF depth, or scrutiny.
Some of the uglier starts:
Tyson Lewis, 20: 68 PA, 4 BB, 23 K (33.8 K%)
Arnaldo Lantigua, 20: 53 PA, 6 BB, 18 K (34.0 K%)
Mason Neville, 22: 48 PA, 6 BB, 21 K (43.8 K%)
A couple of interesting stories from low-A Daytona:
RHP Edgar Colon (11th round draft pick in 2024): 3 GS, 15 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 18 K. Scouting report describes good stuff but control problems (only 4 BB!)
RHP Ovis Portes, 21 (Lucas Sims trade): 3 GS, 14 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, 21 K. Progress.
Tejay Antone, 32 - 7.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 11 K
Lyon Richardson, 26 - 12.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 11 K
Zach Maxwell, 25 - 7.2 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 7 BB, 12 K
Luis Mey, 25 - 9 IP, 12 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 11 K
Hagen Danner, 27 - 5.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 9 BB (!!!), 4 K
SS/2b Edwin Arroyo, 22 - 102 PA in AAA, 3 HR, 4 SB, 11.8 BB%, 18.6 K%, 113 wRC+
LF Hector Rodriguez, 22 - 98 PA, 3 HR, 16.3 BB%, 17.3 K%, 133 wRC+
JJ Bleday, 28 - 88 PA, 5 HR, 14.8 BB%, 22.7 K%, 184 wRC+
INF Michael Chavis, 30 - 61 PA, 7 HR, 8.2 BB%, 23.0 K%, 161 wRC+
Blake Dunn, 27 - 103 wRC+
Beauty of a diving stop by De La Cruz and an even better throw to rob Caminero of a hit in the third inning. #reds
Tomorrow, Chase Burns vs LHP Steven Matz. The Reds have had some success against Matz over the years. The #Reds will also be trying to match their season high 5 game winning streak.
I believe! Go #Reds!
In this economy?
Between pitching, fielding, running, hitting, and timely hitting, recently this feels like about the best I can remember a #Reds team playing. They're not slugging their ways to blowouts, but taking advantages of mistakes, and not making those mistakes themselves.
It's been fun to watch, IMO.
The Cincinnati #Reds are 15-8, and 7 games over .500. That gap matches the highest point the 2025 Reds ever reached over .500.
Rhett Lowder threw a ton of pitches and loaded bases in first, before going 6 innings. Stewart did the rest, with bat and glove. Great play by Elly. And Hayes got a hit!
5 DRS already. I’m starting to think he might be a good defender.
Expelling Tony Gonzales and Eric Swalwell from Congress could have a chilling effect on future Congressmen's ability to sexually harass their staff members.
Oh, I completely agree. The theme is that he’s made changes that look good in most ways (see Statcast page), but results have cratered.
It’s not some case where the person lost the ability to make contact or anything like that. Instead, looking like best version of themselves, with NOTHING to show.
xwOBA? Up
xBA? Up
EV? Up
Barrel%? Up
LA Sweet Spot%? Up
Chase, whiff, K%, BB%, all basically career bests
Result?
Worst season ever, -44 wRC+.
The crazy story of Ke’Bryan Hayes’ early 2026. #Reds 🤯😂
How many times in a row can somebody hit a ~95mph fly ball to the outfield and have it caught? Without it landing in front of or behind or to the left or right of a fielder?
Hayes seems to be trying to answer that question.
His xwOBA this season has increased from 7% to 40% as results crater.
Hayes is making LOTS of contact, and continuing to hit the ball fairly hard. His old problem was hitting the ball straight into the ground, but now he’s pretty consistently hitting it hard into the air. But, with nothing to show for it. Less than nothing, it feels like.
Ke’Bryan Hayes, 56 PA, 7.1 BB%, 8.9 K%, .064 BABIP, .305 xwOBA, -51 wRC+. His EV is up (90.3), and launch angle has raised from ~8.5 to 23.3. XBA of .240. +5 DRS, +2 OAA.
On his Statcast page, his hardhit% is the only thing that’s gone down, as he keep hitting 95mph fly balls right to OFs.
Last season, three defensive metrics scored him as -10, +1, and 0. We only hear about the first.
This year, he’s apparently been an atrocious fielder, unplayable, as he’s gotten slower.
But, none of the real data actually supports that statement. The systems have always hated his arm, hence DRS.
On the defensive side, I’ve long wanted them to be realistic about who their best defensive options are, with Friedl being average-ish. But, a weird pivot to the other extreme (similar to 3b Suarez), driven especially by data people who seemingly choose to ignore most of the available data.
If you’re not seeing and hitting the ball right, it figures your exit velocity would be down. If that was from a big drop in swing speed, that might be a concern. That does decline as one ages, as most know. But, Statcast data suggests that swinging the bat as fast hasn’t been his problem.
I see a guy who needs to see the ball better and get back to what he’s done well in the past, rather than a guy struggling primarily with an age related decline. Which has been by far the loudest hypothesis, which I do NOT feel is supported by the Statcast data.
