A non-trivial number of accounts flocking to tell me that "Stalin murdered millions" is a Nazi thing to say and equivalent to Holocaust denial. Unbelievable. Is no one teaching the purges. What the actual hell.
Now I kinda wish I had used this as a cover pic instead.😀
The end of Viktor Orbán’s ‘Hungarian model’?
New data show why Orbán’s Fidesz party finally fell after 16 years in power.
Read the latest from @grigopop.bsky.social here: goodauthority.org/news/the-end...
My 2 cents @goodauth.bsky.social on Orban's loss in the Hungarian elections based on survey data from last week.
goodauthority.org/news/the-end...
Either he's more of a democrat Trump (not a very high bar) or he knew that they also had a massive popular mobilization disadvantage... bsky.app/profile/grig...
This may have been part of the calculation for Orban's quick concession.
My online pre-electoral survey had a question about how people would respond to Fidesz declaring victory and the opposition disputing the results + calling for protests. The graph below shows a lot of opposition mobilization but very limited willingness by Fidesz supporters to join counter-protests.
I am very curious about what will come out in the coming days/weeks/months...
If he doesn't have some dirty trick up his sleeve, Orban's quick concession is a pleasant surprise, and hopefully a lesson/signal for Trump & others, about how to respond when the voters reject you despite your best electoral manipulation efforts.
I did not expect Orban to fold so easily! It suggests that the difference is too large to overturn...
www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...
Betting markets also look promising
The results are weighted for demographics (age, gender and education) and region. Samples were smaller pre-April7 (~100/day). Obviously online samples are not fully representative but roughly 55% of respondents said they voted for Orban in 2022, which suggests that it does not have a liberal bias.
Here is some very preliminary data (survey is still running) of vote intentions in #Hungary based on my own online survey (of 2200 respondents). The patterns suggest a growing difference post April 8, which may or may not be due to JD Vance's visit.
I will write something for @goodauth.bsky.social early next week. Stay tuned...
I have been running some online surveys in Hungary for the past 10 days but most of my data is starting on April 8. But I will try to see if the pre-April 7 data is enough to establish a trend.
Is your view of the public perception based on the betting markets? Or surveys? Or conversations with people?
Trump's increasingly desperate efforts to boost Orban are not only misguided but apparently also counter-productive www.newsweek.com/viktor-orban...
My kid came back upset and terrified from school, after they had a shelter-in-place due to an ICE raid. This cruelty and madness has to stop!
Ru has tried to murder Zelensky numerous times. Pu reportedly promised Israeli ex-PM Naftali Bennet to spare Zelensky's life in exchange for Ukr surrender. So do not juxtapose Maduro's kidnapping to the fact Zelensky is still in Kyiv. Ru keeps trying and failing to kidnap/assassinate Zelensky!
There are some horrible analogies flying around today. A reminder: the US kidnapping of Maduro in no way justifies, vindicates, or lifts responsibility from the Ru govt or the Ru people. Their war against Ukraine continues to be an unprovoked act of aggression with war crimes and genocidal intent.
This from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Venezuela is both 100% correct and completely laughable:
"An unacceptable violation of the sovereignty of an independent state, the respect for which is a fundamental principle of international law."
mid.ru/en/foreign_p...
Trump is rapidly achieving levels of personalism and a cult of personality that it took Romania's #Ceaușescu and Turkmenistan's #Niyazov many years to achieve.
www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-h...
UNC’s CSEEES was such a bright part of my time at UNC. It not only supported my research, but also felt like home. Such a loss for UNC, its students, and Eastern European and Eurasian studies in the US.
Looks like this story is gaining momentum: over 650 judges have signed a petition confirming the charges in the documentary.
tvrinfo.ro/creste-numar...
The question now is whether the outrage and reform pressures get enough momentum before the story is swept under the rug by those with a stake in perpetuating the culture of impunity.
In other news, Romania is being rocked by the revelations about the political capture of judicial institutions and the successful neutralization of anti-corruption institutions in an excellent new documentary. Well worth watching!
recorder.ro/documentar-r...
Great NYT exposé on how the Trumps, Tucker Carlson, and former Romanian PM Victor Ponta, helped free the accused child trafficker, rapist, and manosphere icon, Andrew Tate.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/10/u...
