Invoking the famous "unknown unknown" and "known unknown" terminology of Donald Rumsfeld, the WaPo Editorial Board calls the uncertainties in Venezuala "brutally obvious". This naturally raises the question - what "unknown unknowns" might await us?
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Publication alert! Barbara Vis and Olaf van der Veen develop and present a novel uncertainty grid to map uncertain phenomena (or aspects thereof). To learn more about how radical uncertainty relates to high levels of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty, read it here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
New StukRoodVlees article from @olafvdveen.bsky.social , Barbara Vis, and Marija Aleksovska about how uncertainty was acknowledged differently across Dutch political party manifestos in the recent elections:
stukroodvlees.nl/hoe-partijen...
"Assad’s downfall recalls the adage...that 'there are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen.' It was as though some cosmic hand had pushed 'fast forward' on the narrative of our times, changing history in the blink of an eye." - @maxboot.bsky.social in wapo.st/41jXgUw
The RadiUnce team is excited to have begun presenting our work at European political science conferences! @olafvdveen.bsky.social presented at the Politicologenetmaal in June, and Ella MacLaughlin presented at the EPSA conference in July. We hope to share our work with you at the next conference ⏭️
Given that Schoof has no prior experience as a politician, his performance as new Dutch PM is hard to predict. But this uncertainty will already decrease with tomorrow's debate, where his political skills will be put to the test, says PI Barbara Vis in @financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/a2d4...
Earlier this month, RadiUnce researcher Ella MacLaughlin presented at the CompText conference on the project 'Predicting the Future', which uses computational text analysis methods to look at how Dutch politicians made (public) predictions during the Covid-19 pandemic.
In deze bijdrage op Platform O bespreken @thomasschillemans.bsky.social en RadiUnce’s onderzoeksleider Barbara Vis hoe de erfenis van Kahneman benut kan worden voor zowel de achterkant van beleid—verantwoording—en de voorkant van beleid—besluitvorming.
platformoverheid.nl/artikel/fram...
A great new article from @wouterlammers.bsky.social and co-authors showing how the majority of experiments on uncertainty communication look at shallow to medium levels of uncertainty, *not* extreme (or radical) uncertainty:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
"The staggering news of Navalny's death...underlined again the perilous unpredictability of a world carved up by multiple fault lines and entrenched interests." - Lyse Doucet
www.bbc.com/news/world-e...
Politicians might respond to uncertain phenomena (like AI or climate change) by avoiding or downplaying the uncertainty, by applying heuristics, or by taking a comprehensive, pragmatic, or opportunistic approach.
- RadiUnce PI Prof. dr. Barbara Vis in Political Studies Review
What trends can we expect to see in politicians' responses to uncertainty? In this open access study published in Political Studies Review, RadiUnce PI Barbara Vis introduces a novel conceptual map:
doi.org/10.1177/1478...
Verkiezingen worden altijd gezien als een onzekere tijd. Was dat ook het geval bij de afgelopen Nederlandse verkiezingen? De conclusie is genuanceerder dan je zou denken.
Lees meer in het nieuwe artikel van RadiUnce onderzoeker @olafvdveen.bsky.social:
stukroodvlees.nl/verkiezingen...
Onzekerheid + gevoelens van machteloosheid = 'meer ‘wij-zij’ denken, een grotere voorkeur voor ‘sterke leiders’ die het niet zo nauw nemen met de democratische regels en mogelijk ook tot een grotere neiging tot complotdenken.' -WRR
www.wrr.nl/publicaties/...
Stanford researchers have found that economic uncertainty rises in the months leading up to elections. With 2024 being the largest year ever for national elections, what's in store for the global economy?
Stanford Working Paper: siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
(Visual from The Economist)
2024 is the biggest election year in history. 76 countries are scheduled to hold national elections, making up more than half of the world's population.
🎆Dive deeper into the topic of "radical" uncertainty in the new year by adding these books to your 2024 reading list:
▸The Black Swan by Taleb (2007)
▸Radical Uncertainty by Kay & King (2020)
▸& for a more in-depth, practical approach: Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by Marchau et al. (2019)
'In het Westland komen klimaat en migratie samen. De verkiezingszege van de partij van Wilders leidt tot onzekerheid voor tuinbouwsector.' - Maureen Blankestijn in @fdnl.bsky.social
fd.nl/bedrijfsleve...)
The uncertainty surrounding today's Dutch elections isn't only about who comes out as the largest party; it's also about the direction where the country is headed.
#verkiezingen2023 #NederlandKiest #stemmen
Radicale onzekerheid kan verkiezingsresultaten beïnvloeden. Nederlandse kiezers nemen het conflict in Gaza mee in hun overwegingen, blijkt uit onderzoek. Maar gaat het ook de uitslag beïnvloeden? Lees onze analyse hier: stukroodvlees.nl/kan-het-isra...
For better or for worse, radically uncertain events can shape election outcomes. RadiUnce researcher Ella MacLaughlin recently wrote about whether the Israel-Palestine War could influence the results of the November 22nd Dutch parliamentary elections. Read it here: stukroodvlees.nl/kan-het-isra...
📢 Welcome to the Bluesky account of the ERC-funded project Politicians under Radical Uncertainty (RadiUnce)! 🗺️📚
Follow us for updates, findings, and a deeper look into the world of politics and uncertainty 🚀 #ERCResearch #Uncertainty #PoliticalScience #PublicAdministration
