OPINION TODAY featured podcast —
@will-jordan.bsky.social joins us to break down new research on the growing divide between active and passive news consumers. Then we discuss the rise of biometric security with Gideon Christian.
(@maristpoll.bsky.social)
opiniontoday.substack.com/i/180075531/...
Really enjoyed this - thanks for having me.
So much of what we see now is just partisan sorting. That’s why it really stands out to me when a behavior actually cuts across party lines. This distinction on news consumption is one of those cases:
It’s fair that voters who shifted hardest right in '24 -- e.g. low-propensity Hispanic voters -- probably turned out at lower rates in NJ/VA, so the “persuasion” angle is obscured.
But this Echelon Insights chart makes a key point: data shows Trump right now is *weaker* with low-propensity voters
It’s fair that voters who shifted hardest right in '24 -- e.g. low-propensity Hispanic voters -- probably turned out at lower rates in NJ/VA, so the “persuasion” angle is obscured.
But this Echelon Insights chart makes a key point: data shows Trump right now is *weaker* with low-propensity voters
Pres Obama is singularly popular in politics. Not every Dem has his charisma, but let's learn from him:
• Healthcare #1 issue
• Anti-war
• All-of-above energy strategy
• Working-class jobs (Detroit bailout)
• Follow public on cultural topics (marriage equality, border)
Pre-election prediction markets gave Sherrill 5% odds of a margin exceeding 14 points. The odds of this didn't change Sep-Nov despite Trump's approval rating dropping 5 points during that period.
These slides come from our recent survey report - find more here:
globalstrategygroup.com/2025/10/27/e...
I don't think "passive news consumption" is a new or a social media phenomenon. But the growing role of recommendation engines means everyone is getting more of what they "seem to want" so passive/active may be come a more politically salient difference than it ever has been.
Something somewhat counter-intuitive is "passive news consumer" is not a very distinctive type of social media user--tho there are notable exceptions (less X/Reddit, more TikTok). But they get less news online probably due to a mix of who they follow & what algos think they want.
These news consumption habits are closely related to political engagement, but not identical. "Do you seek out the news" means something slightly different than "is politics important to you."
I continue to love this simple survey question as a way to divide the public. It cuts across partisanship -- Rs may hate "the media" but they have engaged/attentive voters on favored platforms (Fox/X) just like Ds.
My sense is it will be hard for people to add House seats in Texas this year. But generally Dem poor turnout and weakness at the House level was in safe Dem seats, not competitive seats where they did well almost everywhere relative to Harris. That’s partly why there are so many Trump-seat-Dems.
What part did you find over complicated?
House battleground very different in 2026 vs 2018
'18
Rs defend 65 seats @ Trump+10/bluer
Ds defend 30 @ Clinton+10/redder
'26
Rs defend 30 seats @ Trump+10/bluer
Ds defend 62 @ Harris+10/redder
BUT
'18
Ds need 24 (37% of R defensive seats)
'26
Ds need 3 (10% of R defensive seats)
In-party disaffection for Democrats is coming from the left, where voters are still likely to vote for Democrats in elections.
But among Republicans, it’s moderates and conservatives who rate the GOP image worse. That’s a bigger problem, because those voters are likelier to cross over and vote Dem.
This is a great question to ask. As someone left of center, if you think the answer is the second one, think hard about what needs to change or accept you believe there is basically no chance of Democrats controlling the Senate and passing real laws or nominating judges for the next decade or so.
This new Navigator tracking survey has Democrats taking the lead over Trump in H2H on taxes, inflation, and the economy for the first time in I’m not sure how long (a while). Trump led on all 3 in late February.
Most of the report and points above can be found at the link here: globalstrategygroup.com/2025/04/15/u...
This debate about opt-in vs opt-out/news engagement is not just about reaching difficult to reach audiences. The “news comes to me”/opt-out voters care most about different issues, may respond to diff message/branding. Less about concept of “democracy, foreign policy—more about taxes & health care.
Dems have to contend w/the “engagement divide” too. We found the *only* major demo/political group that trusted “the media” was solid Dems. Disengaged voters are deeply distrustful. Related factors. But professional Ds (like me) must view world less like top bar in this chart, more like the bottom.
But disengaged voters, which are mostly on the margins of Trump’s coalition, are the ones to watch now. See what we found below: DOGE/Musk/Econ policies earn much less support from new, less engaged Trump voters. These issues likely become a wedge for Trump coalition.
Trump won most of the disengaged voters in 2024. The sort of voter who thought Obama was cool but didn’t love “politics” (or politicians). This made Trump’s otherwise narrow victory unusually disruptive of politics as usual. Political engagement seems closely related to news engagement (no surprise)
Rather than follow the lines of politics, news engagement cuts across them. And importantly it does a lot to divide the voters we (and they) need to solidify and persuade from those who are bought in. This divide has probably always existed, but media trends have likely deepened it. From our study:
What’s different about this question from many Qs in politics, is the *lack* of polarization—by party or by race. This dimension, which we can call “news engagement,” cuts across other dimensions, and tells us something your party & demographics alone cannot. Makes a potentially powerful tool.
We at GSG discussed this recently in a report reviewing media consumption trends, which I’ll link below. Here’s a question we’ve started asking more often: When it comes to news about current events and politics, do you … seek it out, or does news come to you?
What do you notice?
Enjoyed this piece from @robflaherty.bsky.social Recently we have been studying a similar concept to the “opt in” and “opt out” voters in our polling, and I think it’s incredibly useful for understanding how current trends in political behavior and media habits are related…
A striking set of results from Navigator Research. A lot of the time simple language tweaks make little difference, but here, voters are much more comfortable agreeing with a position once it criticizes the status quo.
To hold the power to pass major legislation over next decade, Democrats need to run the sort of candidates and be the sort of party that can win/defend Senate seats in every swing state and win seats in Trump+10/+15 states. It’s about necessity as much as opportunity.
To hold the power to pass major legislation over next decade, Democrats need to run the sort of candidates and be the sort of party that can win/defend Senate seats in every swing state and win seats in Trump+10/+15 states. It’s about necessity as much as opportunity.
