Scholar Samuel Helfont *15 Recommends Books to Understand Wars in the Middle East

You can read my take here:

paw.princeton.edu/article/scho...

How Iran has been studying lessons from the war in Ukraine Military journals provide tantalising glimpses into what Tehran’s military thinks and its priorities, including drones

"The FT reviewed more than 300 articles published over the past five years in a dozen Iranian defence publications. They provide a unique window into the secretive Iranian establishment" (e.g. tactics and what technologies are being prioritised).
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Petrodollars. Myths and Reality | Council on Foreign Relations Global dollar liquidity is driven far more by Asian manufacturing surpluses than by oil exporters stashing dollars away offshore. The glory days of the petrodollar are over.

www.cfr.org/articles/pet...
"There is too much talk about Kissinger’s 1974 deal with the Saudis... That deal wasn’t for all time.
The Saudi surplus from ‘73 and ‘79 had disappeared by the late 80s and early 90s, but at the time, few talked about the end of the petrodollar system."

The coming global food crisis Hunger and even famine are foreseeable consequences of the war on Iran. Now the world must act to shield the poorest from effects that will continue long after the fighting stops

"A substantial share of Egypt’s export-oriented nitrogen capacity is controlled by Fertiglobe, a company in which the UAE’s Adnoc now holds a controlling stake and that claims to be the world’s largest seaborne exporter of urea and ammonia"
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Beneath the Strait: Iran Could Threaten Gulf Data Centers, Undersea Cables • Stimson Center The conflict with Iran has exposed tech infrastructure to new acute threats, with Iranian drones striking data centers in Bahrain and the UAE.

www.stimson.org/2026/beneath...
Over 90% of Europe's internet traffic to Asia goes through Egypt and the Red Sea.
International Cable Protection Committee (ICPC): 200 instances of cable damage each year, only about one percent was intentional, 3/4 of cable cuts:fishing equipment and ship anchors.

www.bakerinstitute.org/sites/defaul...
Scenario of a possible Iraq-GCC-Oman pipeline: ca $55 billion and 5-7 years construction.

Oceans of Grain — America, Russia and Ukraine’s breadbasket in flames Scott Reynolds Nelson’s history of the global wheat trade is a timely warning of how basic food exports can shape empires

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Fees for seas: a history of taxing waterways From Ottoman Sultans to Danish kings, Iran’s toll system for Strait of Hormuz revives an old maritime fight

"Formalising the Strait of Hormuz into a fee-paying corridor could deliver $5bn-$8bn annually to Iran and Oman, whose territorial waters cover the southern half of the strait" (Illegal for territorial waters in international law, Suez Canal 2023: €10.3bn)
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I am happy to have written this piece of applied history with Daniel Chardell on what we can learn from the Gulf War ceasefire about today’s war with Iran. www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/how-cea...

Is AI the new fracking? The backlash against data centres chimes with energy Nimbyism of the past

It would behoove Big Tech to spread the potential benefits of AI to the public. In the short term, this might include investments in grid upgrades, workforce retraining and community benefit agreements in places where data centres are built.
www.ft.com/content/525c...

(S+) Öl und Gas: Erneuerbare Energien sind schon jetzt ein kleines Schutzschild Wegen des Irankriegs erlebt die Weltwirtschaft ihre wohl größte fossile Krise. Es fehlt mehr Öl als nach den großen Schocks der Siebzigerjahre. Doch erneuerbare Energien dämpfen den Effekt.

1973-74, Ölembargos iJom-Kippur-Kriegs, Versorgungslücke rund acht Prozent. 1979 bis 1980, während der Iran-Revolution und des Ausbruchs des Irak-Iran-Kriegs, waren es rund sieben Prozent. In der aktuellen Krise wird der Ausfall auf zehn bis elf Prozent geschätzt.
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/s...

Digest of Middle East Studies | PSO Public Policy Journal | Wiley Online Library The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is a pivotal region for attempts at transitioning away from hydrocarbons. With the claimed objective of achieving more equitable and effective development coop...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Unlikely Companions of Energy Transitions? Opportunities and Challenges of Triangular Cooperation Between the EU, the GCC, and Hydrocarbon-Poor Countries From the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Important point, thx for pointing that out! For daily variations in renewable generation batteries can help, though, together with integrated grids and demand management.

"Analysts contend that it is possible to run a cost-effective electricity grid where the vast majority of power comes from renewables in concert with batteries."

Gas will not be killed off by renewables any time soon Global gas supply disruptions highlight the continued vulnerability of electricity grids despite renewable energy growth, as natural gas remains essential for backup power.

www.economist.com/leaders/2026...

Spain is a role model in weathering Iranian oil shocks The country’s speedy rollout of renewables has put a lid on electricity bills

"Spain has managed quite a feat. ... The country’s electricity prices only reached or exceeded the average cost of gas-fired electricity 15 per cent of the time, according to analysis by Ember. In Italy, gas set the price of electricity 89 per cent of the time."
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The AI Boom Wasn’t Built for the Polycrisis “There are too many ways for it to fail for it not to fail.”

The AI economy looks...really precarious. So @matteowong.bsky.social & I did a bunch of reporting to try to figure out what happens when a potential bubble collides with a war in Iran and a potential resource shortage. The answer is...arguably the most dire stuff i've heard from smart ppl in a while

"Storage is patchy: the UAE aims to have reserves equivalent to just two days of normal consumption by 2036, which could be stretched to around a month by strict rationing."
www.economist.com/middle-east-...

Gesellschaftsspiel: Öl für die Welt Bohren, Verschiffen, Verdienen, Verbrauchen: Ein altes Gesellschaftsspiel liegt plötzlich am Straßenrand. Es geht um fossile Energien. Spielen wir es noch einmal.

"Bis die Welt einmal gründlich aufgebohrt, aufgeteilt, verheizt und verscherbelt war, gab der Raubtierspirit keine Ruhe. So war es. Der Tisch wurde ohne verabredeten Spielabbruch nie fürs Abendbrot frei."

www.zeit.de/feuilleton/2...

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(S+) »Tirailleurs« im Haus der Kulturen der Welt: Bahnbrechende Ausstellung in Berlin Gut die Hälfte der französischen Soldaten im Zweiten Weltkrieg kam aus den Kolonien. Von ihrer Geschichte erzählt die bahnbrechende Berliner Ausstellung »Tirailleurs«. Doch sie ringt mit einer grundsä...

www.spiegel.de/kultur/tirai...

Italian PM Giorgia Meloni looks for gas supplies in Algeria Premier struggles to find alternatives to Qatari LNG shipments curtailed by Iran war

"Meloni said after meeting Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune that they agreed their state-controlled energy companies should develop new joint projects, including shale and offshore gas exploration." 44% of electricity from gas vs. 17% in EU
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Hormuz fertiliser block will upend world’s food production Any ceasefire negotiations must include a humanitarian carve-out for such shipments

"Gulf states account for 49 per cent of globally traded urea and 30 per cent of ammonia. When that supply chain stops, the effects accumulate quietly in soil chemistry and planting decisions over the months that follow."
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Insider trading at work.
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"The well-timed trades echoed the flurry of large highly profitable bets made on prediction market Polymarket on the timing of the US’s attacks in recent months on Iran and Venezuela."

"The Dead Sea is also the world’s largest source of bromine, a chemical that helps score patterns on to silicon wafers. South Korea imports virtually all of its supply from Israel."

"Roughly half of global seaborne sulphur — an element used for chip cleaning and etching — transits the strait. "

How the Iran war could derail the AI boom The entire chip supply chain depends on energy and chemical imports from the Middle East

"About one-third of global helium supply — a byproduct of natural gas processing that is used to cool silicon wafers — is from Qatar."
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"Middle Eastern benchmarks such as Dubai and Oman have surged far beyond the global markers, with spot barrels changing hands near $170 a barrel. That extreme pricing underscores just how tight Gulf-origin supply has become."
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Iran lets grain ships through Hormuz to shore up food supply Agriculture has been a ‘pain point’ for Tehran after it imposes de facto blockade of waterway in response to US-Israeli war

"Iran has allowed a limited number of cargo ships carrying grains and other agricultural goods through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war with the US and Israel, as Tehran tries to shore up critical supplies."
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