Get ready for some aurora weather with an added sparkle from the Lyrid meteor shower. With the new moon, skies should be perfect for viewing. Meanwhile, twin regions emerge simultaneously inside several coronal holes, hinting at the Sun's deepest secrets: https://www.patreon.com/posts/155749745

Our Sun keeps things quiet with only minor flare activity and fast solar wind. Perfect weather for the Artemis II splashdown! Expect more of the same, with aurora remaining at high latitudes and a low risk for radio blackouts. Early next week, activity might rise with new regions rotating into view.

Big Surprise Hit! Multiple solar storms launched over the past several days, most expected to be glancing blows. But one of them is hitting early & more on target than predictions show. This is a very strong solar storm impact so aurora is building fast. Expect G3, possibly G4 levels with this one!

Join me today at 6:30pm PDT (01:30 UTC April 1) for a Live Forecast update as I go over the details of the current conditions and what it means for the incoming solar storm, potential new big flares, and how they might impact the Artemis 2 launch. 
https://youtube.com/live/2xruOtqXO3I?feature=share

Here are 3D visualizer interactive plots you can fly through to get a better sense of the coming solar storm. The single frame loads quickly. The full animation takes longer but you can watch the storm reach Earth.
Single Frame: https://shorturl.at/4NHcp
Full animation: https://shorturl.at/4NHcp

The fit at Earth shows that we will barely graze the lemniscate "envelope" of the solar storm due to the orientation of the solar slinky core. It is tilted away from Earth so that its western flank will pass south of Earth's location, even though we should get hit by the shockwave of the storm.

I have been working on 3D visualizations for the model runs and it looks like the western edge of the storm will pass southward of Earth. Thus we will rely heavily on the stream interaction for the bulk of the storm. Here is the NASA M2M lemniscate model coupled with my coronagraph fit at STEREO-A.

The NASA model shows the western edge of the storm may compress the SIR ahead of it, thanks to fast wind from the coronal hole. So although the blast wave was damped at its western flank, it looks like compression of the coming SIR might make up for the loss. Aurora photographers get ready March 31!

Thus far the storm looks like a glancing blow. How large will depend upon how much material drapes around it on its way to Earth. Erupting next to a coronal hole means the storm will likely encounter a stream interaction region (SIR). If the storm can compress the SIR, we could see something big!

Lets hope the coronal hole does not deflect the solar storm too far east. This annotated Solar Demon animation of the blast wave reveals the coronal hole boundaries quite well. Watch how much of the blast wave is blocked at the edges of the adjacent coronal hole as if it hit brick walls.

Wahoo has our Sun woken up! Region 4405 just fired an X1.5-flare & we're still in radio blackout conditions. You can see the sizeable blast wave in the animation. This blast also comes with a big solar storm launch at the hairy edge of the Earth-strike zone! We could see impact by late March 31.

Here is the 3D solar storm model fit using GOES CCOR1. As you can tell, the fit at STEREO-A COR2 is better than at GOES, which shows how important multiple spacecraft data is for space weather forecasting!
Full Animation: https://shorturl.at/858Yb
Visualization(1 frame) : https://shorturl.at/yXM2o

Now that STEREO-A is nearly in quadrature with the Earth, its imagers are much more helpful in analyzing Earth-directed solar storms. For those interested in visualizing the 3D structure of the coming solar storm, here is my fit using STEREO-A coronagraph images with the NASA M2M lemniscate fit.

Another sign? Suprathermal particle fluxes upstream of Earth continue to rise, which means a weak shock is still coming. STEREO-A HI imagery has indicated a weak structure is aimed northward enough that it should pass over Earth. Chances are good we will see some additional impact within 2-5 hours.

Where is the expected solar storm? Early signs are showing part of it may be passing south of Earth now. The OULU neutron monitor indicates the onset of a Forbush Decrease, which happens when a big solar storm is anywhere near Earth. This may mean the more Earth-directed part of the storm is nearby.

I'll do my best. Thanks for the encouragement!

We have another storm coming too so there should be more chances, but likely the best chance will be over the next 12-24 hours.

Here's the view from SOHO/LASCO. As you can tell, this isn't a "great" fit to the coronagraph imagery. The straight rope solution partially fits the southeastern side of the structure, but the northwestern side looks off. (Ignore the stuff at the top of the image. That's a farsided eruption.)

Finally, here are links to the interactive 3D visualizations for the solar storm hitting now. Enjoy!
Static frame (fast load): https://shorturl.at/BAnkr
Full animation (slow load): https://shorturl.at/zoyP3

For the more complex and bent structure launched on March 16th, my straight rope solution is not really adequate. But using the same orientation as for the March 15th storm, this animated gif shows how well the NASA lemniscate & my flux rope model fits the coronagraph imagery at STEREO COR2.

Here are the links to the Visualizer for the glancing storm:
Static 3D interactive frame (loads fast): https://shorturl.at/5Wx5A
Full 3D interactive animation (loads slow): https://shorturl.at/RTNJ4

After being delayed in transit by a glancing solar storm blow, we're finally seeing hints that the expected solar storm may be here! Originally forecasted to arrive on the 19th, STEREO-A HI imagery showed it was moving slower than expected. Aurora chasers get ready, the storm will likely intensify!

The new #SpaceWeatherWoman forecast is up! Learn the details of the coming Earth-directed solar storm, watch flare fireworks of Region 4392, including the big blast wave during the M2.7-flare, & see why aurora chasers cheer, while radio & GPS operators frown https://www.patreon.com/posts/153236659

Fast wind is coming! A familiar coronal hole should give us another round of aurora, while amateur radio operators & GPS users should see risk for radio blackouts diminish. Also the Sun's farside may now be spotless! See details in this week's #SpaceWeatherWoman forecast https://youtu.be/c9gloRUmKAI

An impressive fast wind stream is arriving. Expect sustained #aurora at high latitudes with sporadic brightenings down to mid-latitudes over the next 48 hours. A solar storm could graze Earth March 9-10. Radio blackout & radiation storm risk remains low. Good news for aviators, radio& GPS operators.

The new #SpaceWeatherWoman forecast is up! Learn why we have a spotless Sun, how long it will last and what it means for radio & GNSS operators. Find out when and where aurora will be visible and watch some big activity lurking on the farside rotate into view! https://www.patreon.com/posts/151431182

The expected solar storm did arrive yesterday but it was mild. Luckily, fast wind has hit us like a brick wall with speed increasing over 200 km/s in the past 8 hours. Along with a mini-storm embedded in the mess, we'll hit storm levels. Aurora chasers--might be worth a look where skies are clear!

We say goodbye to Region 4366, but our Sun keeps things busy. Several returning regions that gave us a big show in January are back. Learn what to expect in the new Space Weather Woman forecast up now! See why radio operators & GPS users groan while aurora chasers smile. https://youtu.be/BECqZ6z1yi0

Our Sun plays trickster this week! After an X8.1-flare & eruption that has so many expecting the worst-- turns out the solar storm headed for Earth will be a mild blow. Find out why & learn all about Region 4366 & what to expect next in this week's forecast: https://www.patreon.com/posts/149727933

Conditions intensify both at Earth and the Sun! Learn the details in the new #SpaceWeatherWoman forecast, up now. See how this ongoing solar storm series is impacting Earth & find out why radio blackouts and big solar storm launches are on the menu this week: https://www.patreon.com/posts/148014340