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Posts by Weverthon Machado

NEW: Marie Labussière, Thijs Bol, "Are Occupations “Bundles of Skills”? Identifying Latent Skill Profiles in the Labor Market Using Topic Modeling" sociologicalscience.com/articles-v13...

1 week ago 19 5 0 2
UCL – University College London UCL is consistently ranked as one of the top ten universities in the world (QS World University Rankings 2010-2022) and is No.2 in the UK for research power (Research Excellence Framework 2021).

A postdoc position is now available in my project Markets and Mobility: How Employers Structure Economic Opportunity. Start date flexible within the next 12 months, apply by 9 May.

www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...

1 week ago 29 35 0 0
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An updated version of ggreveal is now available on CRAN!

The new function reveal_patchwork() adds the ability to incrementally reveal the plots in a patchwork object.

I also added a vignette with several usage examples: www.weverthon.com/ggreveal/art...

#rstats #dataviz #ggplot2

2 weeks ago 12 1 0 0
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Do researchers share their code upon request? Does running their orginal code on the original data produce the original results? We provide evidence in a new Royal Society Open Science publication. Studying more than 1,000 articles which use data from the European Social Survey, we find that... 🧵

1 month ago 102 47 1 4
The figure shows reports of economic insecurity plotted against earnings from paid work. Earnings increase from left to right. At zero, earnings cross the Carer's Allowance limit of around 150 GBP per week. Past this limit, a carer loses eligibility for the allowance. 

Carers who never report receipt of the allowance in the survey experience less and less insecurity when their earnings are higher. 

For those with a history of benefit receipt, instead, insecurity doesn't decline smoothly. Arrears, the inability to save regularly, and money worries all spike past the earnings limit set by the allowance.

The figure shows reports of economic insecurity plotted against earnings from paid work. Earnings increase from left to right. At zero, earnings cross the Carer's Allowance limit of around 150 GBP per week. Past this limit, a carer loses eligibility for the allowance. Carers who never report receipt of the allowance in the survey experience less and less insecurity when their earnings are higher. For those with a history of benefit receipt, instead, insecurity doesn't decline smoothly. Arrears, the inability to save regularly, and money worries all spike past the earnings limit set by the allowance.

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For unpaid #carers, earning more does not always lead to economic security.

Motivated by the recent #Carer's #Allowance scandal, I have a new working paper @usociety.bsky.social on how much insecurity carers experience, for how long, who's most exposed and why:

osf.io/preprints/so... 1/2

1 month ago 7 7 1 0
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💸🚨I am hiring 2 Postdocs for my ERC-funded project SOCDEBT on #debt dynamics across countries. One position: #SocialStratification + strong quantitative skills. The other: qualitative research and #EconomicSociology. waitkus.github.io/SOCDEBT/ 🚨💸

2 months ago 63 54 0 3
Postdivorce family complexity and child problems | Journal of Family Research

New w/Anne-Rigt Poortman & Anne Brons @familyresearch.bsky.social: Joint physical custody (JPC) after divorce is overall good for kids, but what happens when parents repartner and stepparents enter the picture? We find JPC is associated w/fewer socioemotional problems even in complex family settings

1 month ago 2 1 0 0

#Published: "Postdivorce family complexity and child problems" by @weverthon.com, Anne-Rigt Poortman & Anne Brons (doi.org/10.20377/jfr...). #JFR #JFamRes #openaccess #openscience #sociology #demography

1 month ago 3 2 0 0
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Rio Police Chief & Congressman Convicted in Assassination of Socialist Rio Councilwoman Marielle Franco The court found that the former Chief of Rio de Janeiro Civil Police Rivaldo Barbosa, Brazilian Congressman Chiquinho Brazão, and his brother, Rio State Auditor General Domingos Brazão, were responsib...

"Today, the Brazilian Supreme Court announced that they had convicted the masterminds behind the assassination of socialist Rio de Janeiro City Councilwoman Marielle Franco guilty on all counts."

massive news in Brazil today, writeup by @mikeelk.bsky.social

paydayreport.com/rio-police-c...

1 month ago 2037 718 21 59
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Paper on statistical power necessary for interaction effects
doi.org/10.1177/2515...

2 months ago 156 59 4 8

On the publication bias discourse, I regret that metascience has become a source of decontextualized, low-res, bean-counting-focused `science is in crisis' narratives. It is largely uncurious abt science, desperately lacking in theory & measurement. I'll quote a few takes I liked & add my thoughts🧵

2 months ago 123 32 3 12
Simulated null distribution for data with a sample size of 100, difference in group means of 5, and a p-value of 0.142

Simulated null distribution for data with a sample size of 100, difference in group means of 5, and a p-value of 0.142

Simulated null distribution of a slope of 0.8 and p-value of 0.002

Simulated null distribution of a slope of 0.8 and p-value of 0.002

Finally, we have to decide if the p-value meets an evidentiary standard or threshold that would provide us with enough evidence that we aren’t in the null world (or, in more statsy terms, enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis).

There are lots of possible thresholds. By convention, most people use a threshold (often shortened to α) of 0.05, or 5%. But that’s not required! You could have a lower standard with an α of 0.1 (10%), or a higher standard with an α of 0.01 (1%).

Statistically significant
The p-value is < 0.001 and our threshold for α is 0.05

In a world where there is no relationship between x and y, the probability of seeing a slope of at least 0.901 is < 0.1%

Since < 0.001 is less than 0.05, we have enough evidence to say that the slope is statistically significant.

Finally, we have to decide if the p-value meets an evidentiary standard or threshold that would provide us with enough evidence that we aren’t in the null world (or, in more statsy terms, enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis). There are lots of possible thresholds. By convention, most people use a threshold (often shortened to α) of 0.05, or 5%. But that’s not required! You could have a lower standard with an α of 0.1 (10%), or a higher standard with an α of 0.01 (1%). Statistically significant The p-value is < 0.001 and our threshold for α is 0.05 In a world where there is no relationship between x and y, the probability of seeing a slope of at least 0.901 is < 0.1% Since < 0.001 is less than 0.05, we have enough evidence to say that the slope is statistically significant.

Evidentiary standards

When thinking about p-values and thresholds, I like to imagine myself as a judge or a member of a jury. Many legal systems around the world have formal evidentiary thresholds or standards of proof. If prosecutors provide evidence that meets a threshold (i.e. goes beyond a reasonable doubt, or shows evidence on a balance of probabilities), the judge or jury can rule guilty. If there’s not enough evidence to clear the standard or threshold, the judge or jury has to rule not guilty.

With p-values:

If the probability of seeing an effect or difference (or δ) in a null world is less than 5% (or whatever the threshold is), we rule it statistically significant and say that the difference does not fit in that world. We’re pretty confident that it’s not zero.
If the p-value is larger than the threshold, we do not have enough evidence to claim that δ doesn’t come from a world of where there’s no difference. We don’t know if it’s not zero.
Importantly, if the difference is not significant, that does not mean that there is no difference. It just means that we can’t detect one if there is. If a prosecutor doesn’t provide sufficient evidence to clear a standard or threshold, it does not mean that the defendant didn’t do whatever they’re charged with†—it means that the judge or jury can’t detect guilt.

Evidentiary standards When thinking about p-values and thresholds, I like to imagine myself as a judge or a member of a jury. Many legal systems around the world have formal evidentiary thresholds or standards of proof. If prosecutors provide evidence that meets a threshold (i.e. goes beyond a reasonable doubt, or shows evidence on a balance of probabilities), the judge or jury can rule guilty. If there’s not enough evidence to clear the standard or threshold, the judge or jury has to rule not guilty. With p-values: If the probability of seeing an effect or difference (or δ) in a null world is less than 5% (or whatever the threshold is), we rule it statistically significant and say that the difference does not fit in that world. We’re pretty confident that it’s not zero. If the p-value is larger than the threshold, we do not have enough evidence to claim that δ doesn’t come from a world of where there’s no difference. We don’t know if it’s not zero. Importantly, if the difference is not significant, that does not mean that there is no difference. It just means that we can’t detect one if there is. If a prosecutor doesn’t provide sufficient evidence to clear a standard or threshold, it does not mean that the defendant didn’t do whatever they’re charged with†—it means that the judge or jury can’t detect guilt.

I just whipped up this little #QuartoPub site last week that demonstrates how I teach p-values/hyp-testing through simulation both with live OJS and with #rstats, and I think it's super neat! It has examples for diff-in-means, diff-in-props, and regression slopes nullworlds.andrewheiss.com #statsky

2 months ago 139 26 3 5
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Postdoctoral researcher on applications of AI in sociological research Are you able to lead sociological research into the AI age?

📢WORK! At the Sociology department of @utrechtuniversity.bsky.social we are hiring a postdoc who will work on applications of AI in sociological research. Join our vibrant-yet-cohesive research community doing cutting-edge research. Please share or apply! www.uu.nl/en/organisat...

2 months ago 17 30 0 0
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<em>Journal of Marriage and Family</em> | NCFR Family Science Journal | Wiley Online Library Objective This paper examines the long-term impact of parental loss in early years on family formation as adults in U.S. cohorts born between 1850 and 1910, focusing on age assortative mating and th.....

☀️Happy to be back with a new article in @jmfncfr.bsky.social! W/ Saverio Minardi we explore how parental loss during childhood was linked to family formation in adulthood. This was my last contribution to the ERC funded project GENPOP.
Check it out Open Access: doi.org/10.1111/jomf...

2 months ago 17 6 0 0
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Do ordinary Republicans and Democrats really avoid each other in everyday life? In a new working paper with Delia Baldassarri, we present descriptive and experimental evidence to challenge the view that partisanship drives the formation of social relationships.

osf.io/preprints/so...

1/15

2 months ago 82 32 2 4
Front cover of The Division of Rationalized Labor. The cover includes four pictures: pen and paper, microscope, factory tower, police badge. Modern-looking yellow lines and graphs are superimposed.

Front cover of The Division of Rationalized Labor. The cover includes four pictures: pen and paper, microscope, factory tower, police badge. Modern-looking yellow lines and graphs are superimposed.

My new book, The Division of Rationalized Labor, is now shipping! A brief summary of the argument to follow…

4 months ago 105 43 8 7
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Good morning to Brazilian reporter Manuela Borges, who’s been waiting eleven years for this petty moment. ❤️ 🇧🇷

4 months ago 56060 14851 821 1954
Announcing the 2026 WFRN Early Career Fellowship Recipients - Work and Family Researchers Network The WFRN Welcomes 2026 Early Career Fellowship Recipients! To date, 170 early-career scholars have participated in the WFRN’s Early Career Fellowship Program. This program is designed to deliver a var...

Thrilled to announce the 2026 cohort of @wfrn.bsky.social early-career fellows! It's been such a privilege to review the 200+ excellent applications + huge congratulations to our elected fellows!

The whole WFRN family looks forward to supporting your career development!

wfrn.org/news/announc...

4 months ago 12 3 0 0
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BOLSONARO NA CADEIA

4 months ago 1 0 0 0
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Bolsonaro tested Brazil’s democracy. Its Supreme Court stepped in | CNN Brazilian democracy has spent the past three years in a near-permanent state of tension – a full-body clench against an ex-president who refused to accept defeat. On Saturday morning, those muscles ti...

I talked to @cnn.com about a great achievement for Brazilian democracy, as Jair Bolsonaro starts serving his sentence for trying to overturn an election. www.cnn.com/2025/11/25/a...

4 months ago 72 24 3 1
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Are you a social scientist that wants to learn R?

Then, you may find my course "R for Social Scientists" very useful!

I designed this course to give social scientists all that is necessary to start using R in their everyday work.

github.com/SofiaG1l/R_C...

6 months ago 17 5 1 1
In early 2025, beaver activity in the Brdy Protected Landscape Area, Czech Republic, contributed to the restoration of a wetland ecosystem. A family of beavers constructed a series of dams that coincidentally accomplished environmental goals of the Czech government, which had delayed its proposed project since 2018 for bureaucratic and financial reasons. The beaver-built dams saved the Czech government approximately US$1.2 million,

In early 2025, beaver activity in the Brdy Protected Landscape Area, Czech Republic, contributed to the restoration of a wetland ecosystem. A family of beavers constructed a series of dams that coincidentally accomplished environmental goals of the Czech government, which had delayed its proposed project since 2018 for bureaucratic and financial reasons. The beaver-built dams saved the Czech government approximately US$1.2 million,

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imagine if a family of beavers randomly showed up right now and finished whatever thing you've been putting off

6 months ago 6323 1828 72 224
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📢 First thesis paper is out!

In November 2022 I started my Ph.D. at the University of Utrecht. 📃 Today, my first paper is available on the website of the European Sociological Review (url.td/Q7kIJ). I love this paper and hope you will too.

I guess I like to take 3 years to publish things. 👩‍🎓😅

6 months ago 38 10 1 2

Dear friends from other countries:

please join the Brazilians as we celebrate this groundbreaking decision.

7 months ago 4068 1314 37 17

Today is a beautiful day 🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷

7 months ago 3 0 0 0

Wonderful opportunity to join a supportive work environment and collegial colleagues! Come and join us!

7 months ago 9 3 0 0
Early Career Work and Family Fellowship Program - Work and Family Researchers Network Early Career Work and Family Fellowship Program The Work and Family Researchers Network is committed to mentoring the next generation of work and family scholars. Our Early Career Fellowship Program p...

If you are an early career scholar, consider applying to the Early Career Work and Family Fellowship Program led by the brilliant Nicole Denier and @yanghu.co.uk.
🔗 wfrn.org/early-career...

7 months ago 2 2 0 0
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We're hiring: Postdoctoral Researcher in Demography, deadline: 30 September 2025

We're hiring: Postdoctoral Researcher in Demography, deadline: 30 September 2025

🚨 New Job Alert! 🚨

Join Dr @ewabatyra.bsky.social as a Postdoc Researcher in Demography!

Contribute to a global study on disparities in reproductive behaviour, focusing on childbearing age & fertility levels 👨‍👩‍👦‍👦

Apply now 👉 www.sociology.ox.ac.uk/event/postdo...

8 months ago 20 16 0 2
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Trends in educational assortative mating in Brazil: 1960–2015 Using both census and survey data, this study analyzes educational assortative mating trends over half a century in Brazil. Odds of both overall and g…

New paper in Research in Social Stratification and Mobility! I track long-term trends in educational assortative mating in 🇧🇷. After decades of decline, homogamy rose in the 2000s, due to a balance shift: more fluidity at lower edu levels vs. stronger homogamy at the top.

Check it out (open access):

8 months ago 20 6 0 0