UNH

After you watch Better Call Saul, Walter White feels like this crazy character who came out of nowhere and blew up everyone’s lives.

The further you get along in your financial independence journey, the less you'll even care about promotions at most jobs.

When your net worth crosses $1 million, it looks absurd when you look at all of the Machiavellian nonsense that people go through for a $10k or $20k raise.

Libertarians care about things like legalizing cocaine and making the postal service for profit.

His pitches sound really good. Herbalife notably didn’t work. Valeant was the other one that seemed compelling.

They do. Dunkin food isn’t the best but it’s 10x better than Starbucks.

I’ve had my eye on this for awhile.

Otis: Fallen Back to Earth, Now Less Than 20x P/E Shares down by 15.9% since the war in Iran, back to levels briefly seen in late 2023.

"Otis: Fallen Back to Earth, Now Less Than 20x P/E"

Shares down by 15.9% since the war in Iran, back to levels briefly seen in late 2023

$OTIS $KNEBV

Stay away from anyone who claims (or the media claims) that they are the ‘next Warren Buffett.’ This also applies to any ‘the next Berkshire.’

1) 99% of active managers underperform.

2) This is often soullessly used as a marketing shtick to package high fee/high risk investments.

Most people with gigantic trucks only use them for true ‘truck’ purposes a few times a year. They’re insanely expensive and the mileage is terrible. It’s so much cheaper to just get a U-Haul, Home Depot rental, etc.

As crude as the fear/greed tool is - it works a lot better than S&P targets and banks telling you to get ‘defensive’ or whatever.

Yes

Hanging in there.

Much like not showing what happened to Tony Soprano so we could debate it for 20 years.

I'm a center right / Reagan R and going through the same thing. I didn't change - the Republican party did when Trump hijacked it.

Hallmarks of the Reagan revolution were respect for rule of law, free markets, and small government. MAGA is against all of that.

The books get really weird.

I’m 1958, dividend yield stops working. Ok, let’s use P/E. Predicts 1973-74. Then, TTM P/E stops working in the 1980’s and 1990’s. Ok, now we use Shiller PE. Then, folks start using market cap/GDP.

Bottom line is that none of this shit works. It’s too good to be true.

The thing about macro valuation metrics is that, eventually, they all stop working. Then, we invent new ones.

My conclusion is that the whole thing doesn’t work. There isn’t a valuation metric for the whole market that tells you when to buy and sell. It’s a foolish pursuit.

Never smoked one in my life. I know myself & know how insanely addicted I would get.

The extent to which tobacco products are price inelastic is astounding. Prices have massively outperformed inflation.

Tobacco companies have been able to grow revenue through price increases alone even as the total # of smokers in the USA declines.

Reminder: geopolitics are unpredictable. There is no one with a good track record of predicting it accurately.

Making moves with your asset allocation because you think something will happen is typically a mistake. We all have a ton of biases and are often wrong.

There be oil here

Just beam the oil out of there. I don't see the big deal.

Transporters

Me at 17 watching Fight Club: "Tyler Durden is so cool."
Me at 43 watching Fight Club: "Tyler Durden is completely full of s*it."

I’m starting to think that melatonin gummies don’t actually do anything and we’ve just given ourselves a reason to have fruit snacks before bed.

We think about the 2010’s as mainly prosperity driven by big tech, but it was really about prosperity driven by cheap oil.

Totally agree. Mediocre movie but a great performance from Keanu. I forgot how funny he can be.

Good rule of thumb: don’t change an asset allocation unless you’re at an all time high from a performance perspective.

Otherwise, there is a high probability you’re emotionally reacting to recent performance vs. making a rational decision.

Everyone focused on the fact that the hedge funds in the Buffett bet didn't outperform the S&P 500.

The actual results were far worse than that. They underperformed treasuries. Most didn't even offer much protection in 2008.