Baumgertner was eventually deported to Russia and ultimately freed. Today he was found dead in Cyprus.

The arrest shocked not only Moscow, but also Belarus’s own government.

According to later private conversations that I had with his advisors, Myasnikovich was furious. He said he had been used “in the dark” and had no prior knowledge of the planned arrest. Myasnikovich was dismissed a year later.

However, immediately after arriving in Belarus, Baumgertner was arrested by Belarusian security services.

The operation was carried out on the personal order of Alexander Lukashenka.

In August 2013, Baumgertner was officially invited to Belarus for talks by then-Prime Minister Mikhail Myasnikovich.

The visit was presented as a routine, high-level economic meeting.

That arrangement collapsed when Uralkali withdrew from the alliance, prioritizing volume over price.

Minsk accused Moscow of economic sabotage. The dispute quickly escalated from a commercial conflict into a geopolitical one.

In 2013, Russia and Belarus entered a sharp conflict over the global potash market.

For years, Belaruskali and Uralkali coordinated exports through a joint cartel, controlling prices worldwide.

The body of Vladislav Baumgertner, former head of Uralkali, Russian potash giant, has reportedly just been found in Cyprus.

His biography includes an episode from political tragicomedy involving a head of Belarus’ government and special services. Thread with an inside below🧵

Lukashenka about the U.S. negotiators:

“The Americans told us that we must immediately publicly apologize to Lithuania. So I said: “They can f*** off.”

News of “authoritarian stability”:

In Belarus, a YouTube channel featuring children’s fairy tales in the Belarusian language has been declared “extremist.”
The stories were about hedgehogs, mice, and foxes. The forced Russification of the country continues.

Caption this

Highly respected President of Belarus

Summary of Lukashenka’s interview with @shustry.bsky.social from TIME:
“Trump is a blabbermouth. I am a Trumpist”

I’m confident that new chapters of success, public service, and dedication to the United States lie ahead for you.

Together, we always achieve more.
That’s why this country became great — and why it’s called the United States, not the Divided States.

I want to express my deep support —
For the work we’ve shared,
For your professionalism,
And for your ability to remain people of great heart in a field not known for sentimentality.

Diplomacy is not just a profession —
It’s a state of mind, a calling of the heart, and a true vocation.

But the feeling we carried was the same as many of you have today:
The support of the people we served, and the enormous pride in the work we had done.

Five years ago, there was no applause when I and dozens of my colleagues walked out of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry with our heads held high. Some were met with police and arrests shortly after their departure.
Many others — with forced exile abroad.

I’m watching a video of distinguished, talented American diplomats departing the State Department to the applause of their colleagues and the tearful embraces of loved ones waiting outside. My heart is with you today.
⬇️ 🧵

I wrote about this taxi ride and my analytic failure. In the end, Harvard admitted me. To this day, I sincerely think that my taxi driver deserved my spot more than I did. I regret not taking his number to get his opinion from time to time.

So, how about @harvard.edu ? In 2023, I felt I needed a new challenge/chapter in my career and applied. One of the essay prompts was: “Describe a time when interactions with others caused you to change your mind.”

The jam cleared and I made it to my conference on time. I didn’t change my speech at the panel and stayed a skeptic. Today I often tell this story about the Ukrainian taxi driver who forecasted the war better than all the Western intelligence and analysts, including me.

The driver laughed: “I don’t know if General Milley has ever been to Ukraine’s front lines. I was there in 2014, when Russia first attacked us. We endured. No doubt we will endure again. Russia is much weaker than it wants you to think.”

My assessment wasn’t based just on open sources and personal feelings. I had two contacts in European defense ministries, and both confirmed Milley’s conclusion. Plus, some EU countries back then didn’t even believe Putin would dare to launch a full-scale invasion.

I admired his self-confidence but politely disagreed:
- Well, Western intel believes Ukraine can hold for only a few days. Gen. Milley predicts Kyiv falls within 72 hours. Russia has invested billions in modernizing its army, with hundreds of thousands of soldiers at the border.

At that time, Russian troops were already massed on Ukraine’s border, and people anxiously discussed the prospects of war. Suddenly my driver broke the ice:
- Just let them attack! They will fail! We can repel them!

After leaving the diplomatic service, I began a new career as a political analyst, focusing on the region’s foreign and domestic policy. One day I had to speak at a conference on Eastern Europe’s security in the EU. On the way to the airport, I got stuck in a traffic jam.

First, some context. In 2020, Lukashenka stole the Belarusian elections. Hundreds of thousands took to the streets, and the harshest repression since Stalin began. I was a diplomat and resigned in protest. My family and I had to flee to Ukraine, settling in Lviv.

How a Ukrainian taxi driver helped me get into Harvard.

A Sunday thread 🧵

Lukashenka
VS
His opponent Tsikhanouski

What do you notice?

A thread 🧵 by @pavelslunkin.bsky.social on xhitter about meeting between Lukashenka 🇧🇾 and Kellogg 🇺🇸

💁‍♂️