Saberseminar Abstract Submission Form Thank you for considering presenting your work at Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball 2026. Because of your efforts, we have grown to be a national meeting known for showcasing new, or...

Which of y'all are submitting something for Saberseminar this year? Which of y'all are attending? Which of you hate baseball and knowledge and good hangs?
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

Scatter plot showing actual vs. predicted movie popularity. There's a strong correlation (R2=0.584), indicating that the method is fairly accurate.

And using deep learning models to predict movie popularity and quality (with surprisingly high accuracy). no-little-plans.ghost.io/how-to-predi...

2000 Staffers Have Left the Department of Justice US Attorney Offices Since September 2024 DOJ’s EOUSA workforce shrunk by more than 11.5% from 2024-2025. Last week, a Department of Justice (DOJ) lawyer named Julia Le had a meltdown in court, telling a judge “The system sucks, my job sucks...

I've also written about the staffing crisis at the Department of Justice no-little-plans.ghost.io/2000-staffer...

All of this points to the bias against older women coming mainly from producers and who they choose to finance and work with. This will not be news to most people, but I think it's interesting to unwind the justifications academics (& others) sometimes point to for biases--they rarely hold up.

Chart showing the aging curve of movie crew members in selected departments (male and female). Female crew members show an earlier peak that drops off faster, suggesting bias against them.

Second, nearly the exact same bias against >40 actresses also exists for >40 *crew*--writers, directors, camerapeople, etc. Perhaps one could argue that audiences don't like older women starring in their movies, but I doubt they care about older female composers or writers (I doubt they even know).

How can we know that this doesn't bias against >40 actresses doesn't come from audiences? Two ways. After adjusting for the budget of each movie, films with older actresses actually earn marginally MORE revenue than films with old men in them.

Bias Against Actresses Over 40 Can’t Be Explained Away There are countless examples–from Geena Davis to Naomi Watts to Meryl Streep–of actresses being told their careers would be over when they turned 40. Despite some anecdotes about changing industry nor...

My latest is about the aging curve of movie stars. Specifically, how there's a durable bias against older actresses that can't be explained away by moviegoers' preferences.
no-little-plans.ghost.io/bias-against...

a little while back, I started a blog, except I guess blogs are called newsletters now. (Apparently I'm sufficiently old to have reached the stage of "that thing I called X is now called Y and I'm mad about it.")

sure, it's well known that all doctors emanate glowing radiance from their hands

Saberseminar Abstract Submission Form Thank you for considering presenting your work at Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball 2026. Because of your efforts, we have grown to be a national meeting known for showcasing new, or...

Reminder: abstract submissions are open for Saberseminar 2026. We always aim for a mix of talks on a wide variety of subjects, from established professionals to hobbyists to students looking to get a foot in the door. Submit your abstract ASAP!
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

Prospect Hunting With Deep Learning | Baseball Prospectus Examining a new tool for interpreting scouting reports.

back @baseballprospectus.com for the first time in a while, using prospect reports--the raw text--analyzed with deep learning models to predict who will get to the majors and how valuable they'll be. www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

Teaching students to ask a question, find and consider evidence, and craft and clearly articulate an argument is at the core of all teaching. It is a slow, messy, non-linear process, but a skill that can be taught. AI short circuits that learning. As Karamanis writes, failure is the curriculum.

A chart categorizing the number of Trump DOJ cases that have been rejected by case type

I often share ProPublica work by picking one quote that stood out to me. But I can't narrow it down with this jaw-dropping piece by @kbmorales.bsky.social and @davidarmstrongx.bsky.social so, uh, 🧵I guess: www.propublica.org/article/trum...

We're excited to announce that Saberseminar 2026 will be held August 29-30 at the IIT campus in Chicago! We're excited to get back together for another weekend of fundraising and cutting-edge baseball research. For more information, visit our website. www.saberseminar.com

IV. CONCLUSION For the foregoing reasons, Plaintiffs' motion for a stay of agency action, ECF 49, is GRANTED. The challenged January 8 notice policy, including the purported ratification on February 2, is STAYED pending conclusion of these review proceedings, and the temporary restraining order entered by the Court on February 2, 2026, ECF 52, is hereby dissolved. A separate order accompanies this memorandum opinion. SO ORDERED. duall.Co ЛА М. СОВВ United States District Judge Date: March 2, 2026

BREAKING: Judge Cobb finds that Sec. Noem's second and third efforts to restrict congressional oversight access to federal immigration facilities still likely violate Sec. 527, issues an order blocking both during litigation.

The U.S. just surpassed a grim measles milestone As the U.S. officially breaks 1,000 measles cases in 2026, experts say that the rate of infections is accelerating much faster this year than it did in years past

As the U.S. officially breaks 1,000 measles cases in 2026, experts say that the rate of infections is accelerating much faster this year than it did in years past

Because of the zero-sum property (every game lost by one team is a game won by another), I'm not expecting asymmetry in the win percentage distribution; instead, I'm expecting a greater spread of outcomes. There should be both more hopeless teams and more superteams.

Baseball’s Competitive Balance Problem It’s possible baseball has never been as competitively imbalanced as it is right now.

I don't think skewness is the right metric to look at this with, because every team that loses a lot of games forces other teams to win more games (since it's zero-sum). I think a better measure would be standard deviation or some type of outlier counting. blogs.fangraphs.com/baseballs-co...

there is evidence, at least in baseball, that teams are having more extreme losing records than before. So, setting aside the cause, I think this is a real trend.

This is the interview Donald Trump didn’t want you to see.

His FCC refused to air my interview with Stephen Colbert.

Trump is worried we’re about to flip Texas.

Erika Kirk Faces Backlash Over Alleged 'Inappropriate' Texts With A 15-Year-Old: 'Absolutely Vile' Purported Texts Between Erika Kirk And A 15-Year-Old Go Viral Sparking Backlash And 'Grooming' Allegations

yeeeesh www.yahoo.com/entertainmen...

Glad this is getting covered, but also… Completely surreal to read the NYT report on this as recently disclosed info, and just an allegation. This happened to every observer I know! It happened to me twice! I have it on video both times! www.nytimes.com/2026/02/13/u...

2000 Staffers Have Left the Department of Justice Since September 2024 DOJ’s workforce shrunk by more than 11.5% from 2024-2025. Last week, a Department of Justice (DOJ) lawyer named Julia Le had a meltdown in court, telling a judge “The system sucks, my job sucks.” She...

According to public Department of Justice records, about 2000 staffers left DOJ from 2024-2025, including about 1000 lawyers. The last time there were there this few staff was 2010.
no-little-plans.ghost.io/2000-staffer...

Federal agents cornered Marimar Martinez, shot her several times, boasted about it, arrested her, lied about her to the public and in the police report, and falsely charged her with assaulting them.

Now the government wants to keep evidence of their lies secret to protect these agents' "privacy."

What is going on w/Bondi's DOJ & Pirro's US Attny's Office? They are repeatedly missing court deadlines in new lawsuits against USG & facing possible default. I had two w/i last few days. Admin has gutted these offices. I feel for lawyers still there. Workload is unmanageable.

“I watched him die… then I watched them maneuver his body like a rag doll— only to discover it was because they wanted to count the bullet wounds and see how many they ‘got’, like he was a deer.”

Mommy Mondays with Tony Dokoupil

perhaps the first Nuremburg defense of the Trump administration? Certainly won't be the last

drink a jug of whiskey with Tony Doukipil before watching a quack doctor whip out some calipers and tell you about how forehead diameter relates to aggressive tendencies, because pit bulls