Bunds have gone nowhere special the last 1-month. 1w and 1m smiles not sending strong signals...Double top at 128.58

For absolutely no reason, let me remind people of this banger of a paper by @caroartc.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...

Warsh's Fed chair audition song ....

Never gonna give you up
Never gonna let you down
Never gonna run around and desert you
Never gonna make you cry

Once again Trump has managed to stop another war with his proposal for Greenland.

After 21 years, I'm going to stop the daily posting to my blog Calculated Risk. Thanks to everyone!

I'm still going to write the real estate newsletter and I've started a weekly economic newsletter to replace the blog (but just once a week).
economicweekly.substack.com

Is there a feature to turn the various starter packs into lists?

I look at topics/themes more so would be useful.

Following last night’s regime violence, the crowds on Iran’s streets are said to be even larger tonight.

Push hard and people push back.

surface via LSEG Workspace

GLD vol surface...

$25%

Treasuries and Bunds having a touch of meh as JGB yields continue higher

H/t to @mrmbrown.bsky.social from the other side...the Ramsden indicator

Trump helps to reset the counter back to zero....

Bund implieds including those at the wings are at their YTD lows...a reflection of Bunds trading with a fresh lower floor on its range

Had it not been for external pressure we could have potentially seen a three-way split from the Fed as was the case at the last BoE meeting (before they voted again to get the 5-4 vote for a cut).

How many, besides Miran, will vote for a 50bp cut creating a two-way split?

A view along the Reflecting Pool, with practically no visitors.

Slideshow of today in Washington DC, and how it looks when a terrorizing government scares people away.

By me, no paywall: fallows.substack.com/p/a-summer-a...

10 anime series that will teach you about economics Who says you can’t get smarter about the economy while binging a great show? “Make Me Smart” host Kimberly Adams curated this watch list for you.

Folks who listen to “Make Me Smart” will know I’m a BIT of an #anime fan. I’ll be back to covering DC politics/ economics news soon… but, for the summer, here’s my list of 10 anime to help you learn about business/ economics. In case you want to dabble. #blerdsky www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0...

Grand Designs: the loss of American freedom Exactly seven months into Trump's second term, we have reached 1000 authoritarian actions. Here I lay out the enormity of what has happened.

🚨1000 authoritarian actions. 7 months🚨

I've been tracking Trump's authoritarian actions. From dismantling democratic institutions to militarising immigration enforcement, Trump is reshaping America.

In my new post I highlight key authoriarian attacks
christinapagel.substack.com/p/grand-desi...
1/2

Man Charged With Assaulting Federal Agent With Sandwich in D.C.

Jan 6 is ok, but sandwiches are not....

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/u...

(NBC News) - President Donald Trump's pick to run the Bureau of Labor Statistics was among the crowd outside the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, with the White House saying he was a "bystander" who wandered over after seeing coverage on the news.

@ryanjreilly.com
www.nbcnews.com/politics/jus...

Why don't we just get rates down to negative? Before we go there just refinance with lots of bills.

Let's get the suckers who live on Mars to buy the debt while we are at it.

Or just get the Fed to print the money because it's free and just spend that free money.

This is so easy.. #Trumponomics

What to make of POTUS's attempt to fire the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)?

Let's run down what knowledgable people are saying...

Motherfucking wind farms…

Chart from BIS paper showing monetary conditions index (MCI) is substantially lower than the policy rate and estimates of the shadow rate.

What if monetary policy isn't actually all that tight? Interesting BIS paper covered here by @thomas-chow.bsky.social - a new monetary conditions index tries to capture effect of balance sheet size in a more nuanced way than the shadow rate www.centralbanking.com/central-bank...

Currently on the phone with Visa

Instead of starting with a complaint, I approached this as a Confused American Consumer who doesn't understand why they can't buy things off a website they use

The call center rep immediately asked if it was about Steam/itch

(cont)

South Park is getting canceled after this lmao.

Opinion | 11 tips for becoming a columnist Here’s my advice for handling the awesome responsibility of this job.

Some professional news: After more than a decade of columnizing at The Washington Post, I'm taking the buyout.
This is my last column. It is my advice to any other lucky pundits who land a perch like this -- with 11 principles I've aspired to, even if I haven't always achieved them:
wapo.st/3TU2fGw

#squirrel 🐿️

You know those box of wires you keep forgetting just in case or I might need it someday...well I threw away my box two weeks ago. And now I just so happen to need one of those old wires from the box.