Toward the end of last year, I promised to play trumpet on my market recap show if and when $SPX finally closed about 7000. Yesterday, it finally happened. Please enjoy a brief musical interlude 🎶🎺 and then thoughtful analysis about all the charts! 📈📉
youtube.com/live/m__5D7a...
Our Friday all-mailbag edition of CHART THIS with Dave Keller is now posted! Please enjoy a thoughtful discussion of breakout potential for $NFLX, "gap and fail" pattern for $ENPH, and what semi-annual earnings could mean for investors.
youtu.be/sQdmPpArERo
Have a fantastic holiday weekend!
$STX close to a major league breakout to resolve a symmetrical triangle or "coil" pattern. Price has been in an equilibrium since end of Jan. A breakout to the upside could change the picture big time.
$ON is a great example of a semiconductor stock that is holding major support but still not breaking out to a new swing high.
$ON > $64 = pretty bullish
$ON < $55 = pretty bearish
$ON between 55 and 64 = 🥱
How much would I regret not taking a shot at software stocks as $IGV tests its 2024 and 2025 lows?.........
McClellan Oscillator turning back positive for the first time since end of February. While long-term breadth measures in our work remained challenged, this upturn in short-term breadth speaks to the strength of the current countertrend surge! $SPX
$AAPL is the latest Mag7 stock to negotiate with its 200-day moving average. Most of the Mag7 have failed to hold this crucial level of price support. Will $AAPL follow suit this week?...
$NDX Bullish Percent Index touched the 30% level on Monday, which usually means at least a short-term bounce higher is imminent for the Nasdaq.
The clock is ticking on the Zweig Breadth Thrust. Need the indicator to flip from 40% to 63% within two weeks, representing a shift from very weak to very strong breadth readings. That would have to mean a major league surge higher in breadth conditions through this holiday week! $SPX
Mystery chart of the day!
Two questions...
1. Would you buy this stock?
2. What is this chart?
Dave is enjoying a week at Disney with his family! CHART THIS will be back live on Mon, Mar 30th. Dave will be ready to dig into all the charts from this week once he's done reflecting on how it's a small world, after all. Until then, remember... it's ALWAYS a good time to own good charts!
We're getting close to 30% of $SPX members above their 50-day MA. Even if the longer-term trend continues bearish, bombed out breadth conditions like this can lead to short-term upside reversals.
Hey folks- my schedule is more volatile than the $VIX right now!
We're set to go live with CHART THIS at 5:30pm ET / 2:30pm PT.
All your smart investor friends will be there. You should be too.
Hey folks just a heads up... late kickoff for today's livestream due to a scheduling conflict. No, not because we're in mourning due to our Buckeyes exiting in the first round of the NCAA Tourney, although that was pretty rough!
We're going live at 6pm ET / 3pm PT. See you then. 📈😀 📉🫣 ➡️ 😴
Price momentum and earnings momentum are not the same thing... but the best opportunities often happen when they align.
Alex Carteau @EpsMomentum joins me on the pod to talk about timing, earnings gaps, and post-earnings drift.
Worth a watch. youtu.be/PoNwnN6HaSg
Join me tomorrow live on March 19 at 1 PM ET:
I’m breaking down my Market Trend Model: what it measures, what it’s signaling across major ETFs right now, and how to use it for a more disciplined, data-driven investing approach.
Save your spot 👇️
Today was a clear risk-off session. GDP revised lower, the VIX pushed higher, breadth deteriorated, and the S&P failed to hold its bounce.
In CHART THIS I answer six viewer questions and break down what’s changing beneath the surface.
Watch here: youtu.be/a3UH8PDlF8M
"Inflation isn't a problem at all."
Ten Year Treasury Yield: "Hold my beer." 🍺
One of the biggest shifts from February to March? $TNX bounced of support at 4.0% as rates move higher as prices appear to be 📈.
#AAII survey took a big time downturn this week. Bulls down slightly 33.1 -> 31.9%, but bears up huge from 35.5% -> 46.4%. Last time we had this many bears and this much of a spread between the two? November 2025 swing low for $SPX.
You can blame me for this bear market. Back in November, I promised to play trumpet 🎶🎺 on my daily market recap show when $SPX closed above 7K. "Dave Keller Trumpet Resistance" is now a thing. White paper coming soon.
NAAIM Exposure Index down from 100% in mid-December to 67% in mid-March. Seems bullish to me! $SPX
Market update: the market may not be crashing… but it definitely has bad breadth.
Indexes are mostly flat in 2026, but breadth is weakening:
• Fewer stocks above their 50-day
• Advance-decline lines rolling over
When participation fades, the rally gets fragile.
The market may be changing character.
For months we've seen rotation:
• Growth → Value
• Value → Defensives
In this conversation at the MoneyShow Virtual Expo we discuss what rising volatility, widening credit spreads, and sector leadership shifts may be signaling.
When in doubt… zoom out.
Justin Nielsen of IBD had one line that really stuck with me:
“What rules do I need to put in place to save myself from myself?”
That’s investing in one sentence, especially in a sideways market.
Our latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast is awesome:
youtu.be/Z9aEeRGxOfQ
Lindsey Bell of 248 Ventures joins me to explain why earnings still matter more than headlines.
We discuss AI rotation, consumer staples, logistics, inflation, and why investors need to focus on evidence—not noise!
youtu.be/jfCtIi68AWE
We're going LIVE today at 5pm ET / 2pm ET for our daily market recap show, CHART THIS with Dave Keller. Excited to break down the latest charts and market observations as $SPX and $QQQ rallied hard into the close. See you at 5:00pm ET!
youtube.com/live/kQOnGVO...
When a stock is in a downtrend phase, I consider short-term rallies to be a "trade" not an "investment" until and unless the price breaks above the 200-day moving average. $CPB is a perfect example of the folly of chasing short-term gains and ignoring the longer-term downtrend!
Bullish charts keep going up. And when they stop going up, that's no longer bullish. But if they don't stop going up, then they don't stop being bullish. $ROST
$AMZN > 225 = breakout above all the moving averages
$AMZN < 200 = breakdown of key support
$AMZN between 200 and 225 = 💤
The S&P 500 is sideways — but plenty of charts aren’t.
Today on CHART THIS I break down:
• Amazon and Tesla bouncing
• Lam Research divergence
• Broadcom earnings
• Bitcoin back above 70K
• Improving trends like Moderna and LYB
Watch here:
youtu.be/JqVFHeQLjrs