...though Robbins apparently feels that though he had some power of discretion on the vetting decision he had no ability to inform anyone else in the system that he had done so.

...The question of FCDO "discretion" on vetting seems highly important.

Downing St has noted it (see below) & Robbins' testimony confirmed he exercised it.

Downing St likely feels Robbins should have ALSO exercised some discretion by informing the PM and others that it had been exercised...

...Also worth noting that Robbins' testimony shows he still believes the UKSV recommendation on Mandelson should never have been revealed to the public & should have remained in a "hemetically sealed box" in Whitehall

...This is also very significant - Robbins suggests Starmer did NOT mislead the House of Commons about Mandelson's vetting process - which would explain why he did not feel it necessary to inform Downing St/Foreign Secretary/Cabinet Secretary etc about what he knew about UKSV's concerns

...Perhaps the most suprising revelation from Robbins' testimony is he never saw any UKSV documentation & was only briefed orally about their concerns about Mandelson - & yet he was designing mitigations for those concerns to enable Mandelson to clear vetting committees.parliament.uk/publications...

...which seems to undergird Robbins' conception that adverse recommendations from UKSV should not be interpreted as someone "failing" vetting

...significant point from Robbins - he says, in his view, the vetting process is SUPPOSED to throw up potential problems precisely so they can be mitigated and managed, not to be a "pass/fail piety test"...

Robbins claims he was told case was "borderline" and UKSV was "leaning towards" denial & that he was shown no documentation committees.parliament.uk/publications...

...bottom line: Robbins felt he had discretion to grant Mandelson vetted status, despite the concerns of UKSV - but no discretion to inform anyone else in the civil service or the Foreign Secretary or Downing St about the concerns of UKSV

...and even not sharing UKSV recommendations with his boss the Cabinet Secretary

Robbins talks about the "pinciple" of the vetting system

Seems he understands key principles to be:

1) informed discretion from him as top FCDO civil servant in judgements on granting vetting
2) extreme confidentiality about UKSV recommedations, to extent of not sharing them even with Foreign Sec

...because UKSV's recommendation was just *part* of the vetting process, not the outcome.

And Robbins' view was that the legal confidentiality around the UKSV process meant that he *should not* have shared UKSV's recommendation more widely.

...a great deal flows from this conception of the vetting process.

Robbins' view is that because Mandelson formally passed vetting he did not need to tell Number 10 or the Foreign Secretary, or the Foreign Affairs Committtee or even the Cabinet Secretary about the UKSV recommendation...

...important to bear in mind in context of the original Guardian story stating Mandelson "failed vetting" in the headline... www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

...argument explicitly made in Robbins' letter to the Foreign Affairs Select Committee here... committees.parliament.uk/publications...

The key point from Olly Robbins is that, in his view, Mandelson did *not* technically fail vetting - the vetting outcome was the FCDO decision on whether to grant, not any UKSV recommendation as part of that process...

...out now in paperback 👇

bsky.app/profile/benc...

Welcome to the age of hoarding As global economic uncertainty mounts, stockpiling is back

Prudential national/regional stockpiling ≠ "hoarding" or export restrictions

See my book "Exile Economics" on why more stockpiling could be a sensible policy response to the weaponisation of interdependence and anxiety over supply chains...

www.ft.com/content/0463...

Global price of Cocoa Global price of Cocoa

...data from here: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCOCO...

The picture of what's happened to global cocoa prices since 2023 is astonishing - historically massive boom and bust. 👇

Seems to be a combination of failed harvests in West Africa & then severe demand destruction (as retail chocolate prices have not yet fallen & people have bought less)...

Strait of Hormuz: Is the US blockade of Iran working? BBC Verify has been looking into whether the US blockade of Iran near the Strait of Hormuz is working.

Is the US blockade of Iran working?

And what exactly IS this blockade?

My video analysis for BBC Verify 📺 👇

www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/...

...looks like spending on children accounted for difference up to 2000 - so, yes, perhaps something to do with tax credits being classified as "welfare" but not "benefits" & then the UC replacement being classified as "benefits"?

Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026 Historical and forecast benefit expenditure and caseload data usually consistent with the annual spring and autumn Budgets or Statements.

"Benefit expenditure, as a share of Gross Domestic Product - working age" - from the DWP's latest expenditure and caseloads tables (Benefit summary table tab): www.gov.uk/government/p...

Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026 Historical and forecast benefit expenditure and caseload data usually consistent with the annual spring and autumn Budgets or Statements.

not sure - FYI the figures we used are from here (Benefit summary table, Benefit expenditure, as a share of Gross Domestic Product (working age) ):

www.gov.uk/government/p...

...and here's that chart I referenced of UK defence spending plotted vs working age welfare spending as a % of GDP.

Online piece here: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Newscast - Can We Afford To Keep The UK Safe? - BBC Sounds Former Nato chief warns UK's national security 'in peril'.

Spoke to Newscast along with @helenmiller.bsky.social about UK defence spending yesterday - catch up here 🎧 👇...

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Reposting this 👇

Gosh thanks Anthony - much appeciated 🙏

Honestly, whenever you hear an argument for self-sufficiency just dip into any chapter in this. Everyone in policy should possess a copy.

Here's a zoom in on the energy chart to the area where most nations are found (-100 to +100 energy imports % use) - emphasises no obvious correlation between higher net energy imports and lower per capita income (arguably the opposite)