We only have to back roughly a decade for an example of a model-predicted "super El Niño" that failed to make it through the infamous spring predictability barrier. Nice discussion here: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
5/5 El Nino Status (El Nino WATCH)
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
4/5 4-month rainfall drought status
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...
3/5 Upper layer Soil Moisture
awo.bom.gov.au/products/his...
2/5 Year to date rainfall
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...
If you didn't get the whiplash summer big rain, you're probably thinking "will I plant a crop at all?".
No April rainfall, little rain this year, soils drying out, El Nino forecast, Urea & fuel & diesel price vulnerability.
Tough time to farm.
1/5 April to date rain
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...
NCRA links: docs.google.com/document/d/1...
The National Climate Risk Assessment identified the import of (fossil) fuel as a key vulnerability in its National Security system report, and in its workshops with security system experts.
www.acs.gov.au/documents/3f...
In 2004 Australia decided to let the global fossil fuel market decide our energy future. That same year China decided fossil fuels were costly and risky so went with electrification (noting Strait of Hormuz and Malacca Strait were threats to their National Security).
www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04...
Adam Morton Chris Bowen to begin Cop31 climate summit president's role remotely Chris Bowen's role as president for negotiations at the Cop31 climate summit in Turkey later this year will kick off remotely. With the fuel crisis raging and Bowen giving daily press conferences on the government's response, the climate change and energy minister said he would not fly to Berlin next week for the Petersberg Climate Dialogue, an annual meeting of representatives from about 40 countries. A spokesperson for the minister said he "considers his travel carefully" and would not fly for the meeting hosted by the German climate action ministry on Tuesday and Wednesday. "In this instance he will take advantage of the virtual attendance and continues to engage closely with all his international counterparts. Australia will also not be represented at ministerial level at the first global conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels in Colombia starting next Friday.
Australia's energy minister is skipping global meetings on accelerating the phase-out of fossil fuels because he has to stay in Australia to deal with the fallout from not phasing fossil fuels out fast enough.
The "super-El Nino" talk is unhelpful clickbait hype. Current consensus forecast is for a Nino3.4 index of ~1.3C to materialize later this year. That's a *moderate* El Nino; pales in comparison w/ recent (e.g. 2016 & 2024) events.
The truth remains bad enough!
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
Argh, i only just noticed the scale on the RHS of the graph! (Which answers my real question...)
How much above the 1800-1850 value was 1986-2005?
What does El Nino WATCH mean?
media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/...
More on the BoM system
media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/...
We are currently at El Nino WATCH levels.
Using the BoM's former ENSO alerting system criteria, the current ENSO status would be El Nino WATCH, meaning ~50% chance of an El Nino event occurring in 2026.
Details at: docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Ashamed this is even mentioned in Australian politics by a major party. Many First Nations people may not pass - let alone agree with - the first two, which alone makes it a vile policy.
Good ECMWF article on El Niño strength possibilities by Tim Stockdale. Now is a low accuracy time to make strength forecasts. 2023 and 2017 had some similarities to now - 2023 forecast reasonable, 2017 forecast a bust. Alert but not alarmed is the best advice right now.
www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...
And on the strength of an event...
"the possible outcomes range from ENSO-neutral to a very strong El Niño"
"The possibility of a very strong El Niño largely depends on the continuation of westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific ... which is not assured."
Very much agree also.
"In May-July 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026." NOAA ENSO Diagnostic Discussion updated overnight.
I'd agree with that... El Nino WATCH with a 50-60% chance of an event in 2026.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
Bugger (New Zealand: Coromandel)
charts.ecmwf.int/products/cyc...
Bugger (Australia: Cooktown)
charts.ecmwf.int/products/cyc...
A close up...
A decent burst of tropical westerly winds (1st frame), being helped now by TC Maila and Severe Tropical Cyclone Vaianu, has triggered off another Kelvin Wave in the ocean (3rd frame). What does this mean? The chance of El Nino is rising (but still some way to go).
www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/assort...
NMME forecasts of ONI initialized 2026-04-01. Forecasts are well above 0.5 except for CanESM5 who sags in the middle
Pick your fighter: ONI or RONI at nmme.earth.miami.edu/figures/inde...
Live with Dr Shane and Dr Ray on 3RRR Einstein a Go Go. And daughter Sarah Watkins joined us too! Talking climate change, social sciences, generational baselines and the importance of the arts/science interface. Plus my new role with the Climate Council.
Listen at
www.rrr.org.au/shared/broad...
