Exciting news on @malengo.org, the NGO that helps East African students move to Europe for education: Our research team has given us a glimpse of their early findings!
Here is the full writeup, joint with @richardnerland.bsky.social:
forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CpZYHk...
Thread follows!
A line graph illustrating Japan's foreign aid contributions over time, labeled "Japan's contribution to foreign aid has more than doubled in just five years."
Japan has more than doubled its foreign aid budget in just five years
I'd love to fund studies of interventions that reduce real-time pollution exposure, in the US, on outcomes related to violence and criminal behavior.
(There is strong evidence that such exposure increases violence in real time; the next question is how much interventions can mitigate this effect.)
So excited to share what Saloni and I have been up to.
Medical innovation is not inevitable. Sometimes breakthroughs take 40 years, thousands of people building on each others’ work & participating in clinical trials.
Check out ep 1, and subscribe for more Hard Drugs! harddrugs.worksinprogress.co
As you ponder the likely consequences of the new steel tariffs, it's worth asking:
A. How long does it take to build a steel mill?
B. How long do you expect Trump's new 50% steel tariff to last?
If A>B, then how can you expect any lasting gains from these tariffs?
Grants are joint with @openphil.bsky.social though Dan Brown at GW led the investigation
More on GiveWell's response to aid cuts: www.givewell.org/research/fun...
If you want to support countries struggling in the aftermath of cuts, consider donating to GW's all grants fund!
There's a strong a priori case for these grants - aid cuts have been large + fast, procurement has been severely disrupted.
Key part of the investigation was speaking to MOHs who showed strong demand for the support.
CHAI and PATH v well placed, with existing in-country teams
Great podcast by GiveWell on $6.2M of grants to CHAI and PATH to support ministries of health in 6 African countries to respond to aid cuts
Technical support units will work in-country to prioritise spending, improve procurement, manage funding transitions
givewell.transistor.fm/episodes/sup...
I signed the 10% Giving Pledge this year, and this week, I decided to donate 19% of my annual income to global health charities.
It's not going to be anywhere near "enough", but I'm happy to do it --
Why are solar panels and batteries from China so cheap?
High levels of automation, cheap energy, and state-of-the-art manufacturing processes.
It's less about low salaries than many people think.
My latest Substack:
www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/china-chea...
A re-analysis of Ciacci's (2024) "Banning the purchase of sex increases cases of rape: Evidence from Sweden" Journal of Population Economics reveals major issues. A year ago, reproducers Adema, Folke, and Rickne found coding errors driving the paper's key results. Let's unpack this in a 🧵
🧵 NEW: Why is Britain so skint?
We pay huge amounts of tax, yet the chancellor is expected to make widespread cuts. Where is all our money going?
My column, and a primer ahead of Wednesday
@thetimes.com
1/10
www.thetimes.com/article/e1a6...
338 is cool, but looks like a way overconfident model!
Sounds like a cool job at Resolution Foundation, on a key focus area for Labour govt
We have a vacancy at Resolution Foundation for someone to lead our housing policy work. £55 - £68k, office based in Westminster.
Closing date: 08:59am on 17 April 2025 (1/2)
Excited that Open Philanthropy is expanding our work on economic growth and scientific progress.
The case for the Abundance & Growth Fund is simple: Economic growth isn’t just about GDP—it’s one of the most powerful forces for improving human lives. 🧵
Exciting update: @open_phil is doubling down on our YIMBY, innovation, and metascience success by launching a >$120m Abundance & Growth Fund to accelerate economic growth and boost scientific & technological progress. Funding from @goodventures.bsky.social, Patrick Collison, and others.
Why now? 🧵
Aspiring economists from Africa:
Extended deadline 4 March
Oxford's CSAE offers full scholarships >3 year for African students
How?
Apply for grad studies in Econ = 2 yr Master's course w/ progress to PhD
We automatically consider all applicants
www.ox.ac.uk/admissions/g...
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer just cut the UK aid budget from 0.5% of GNI to 0.3% in 2027 to fund increases in defence spending.
He says he’s making tough choices, but cutting funding for the world’s poorest people is the easiest—and cruellest—choice he could make (1/4)
Cutting Official Development Assistance to 0.3% of GDP means that a massive fraction of our aid budget will be spent in the UK on accommodation for asylum seekers. I don't have an up to date estimate, but could easily be half. Leaves much, much less for "traditional" aid.
In the last election, Reform — led by Nigel Farage — pledged to half the UK's foreign aid budget.
Unfortunately, Labour has basically implemented this, now cutting it by 40%.
www.reformparty.uk/slash-govern...
P.S I would happily pay more tax to fund (a) support for Ukraine, (b) keeping aid at 0.5% / increasing back to 0.7%
Labour backed itself into a corner in election by pledging not to increase main revenue-raising taxes - Ukraine situation a good reason to break that pledge IMO
And this all underlines how much we need growth.
It's 'one in one out' on spending without it, a zero sum budgetary world.
Growth was meant to be Labour's top priority, seemed to get lost in first 6 months, they need to focus on it now - change planning laws, get building
The politics of this are hard - neither of those would be popular among a high turnout group. I get why cutting aid plays better with Telegraph/Mail.
But Labour has the biggest majority for a generation - surely use it for hard decisions that are good for the world?
So how to fund increased defence spending? Maybe a case to rewrite fiscal rules in light of Ukraine situation (though not great to borrow more). Could ditch the triple lock (with protections for poorest) and/or increase retirement age inline with life expectancy
Cutting aid for 2nd time in a few years will mean increased deaths and poverty for thousands of the world's poorest people, many of them children.
Eg of impact in aid cuts in the US: ~40,000 people estimated to die in first 90 days of PEPFAR freeze pepfar.impactcounter.com
- Trump won in early Nov, we've known he is more pro-Russia for a decade, but last week Europe was scrambling
(I know Labour inherited an absolute mess of public finances - Tories take lots of blame here too, were in power for 95% of time since Crimea)
Easy to say with hindsight but there was plenty of time to prep:
- probably should have started in 2014 with Crimea
- definitely should have started 3 years ago
- Labour in power since July - knew 50% chance of Trump in Nov. But left 0 fiscal headroom in Sep budget
Starmer just confirmed UK aid cut from 0.5% to 0.3% GNI to fund increased defence spending
This is so bleak - thousands in low income countries will die.
I get (and support) that we need to increase defence spending/capabilities in europe, but surely better ways to fund it 🧵
+1, this was beautifully written