Models seem to converge towards the warmer (more extreme) projections for the imminent El Niño. Wow!
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Posts by Daan van den Broek
March's sea ice extent in the Arctic was the lowest on record, for the 2nd consecutive year
1 week ago
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Det var rekordlite sjøis i Arktis i mars 🧊
– I europeisk sektor er det særlig nord for Svalbard og det nordlige Barentshavet som har mindre is enn normalt, sier forsker @signeaaboe.bsky.social
Les mer om sjøisen i Arktis i månedsrapporten 🔗 shorturl.at/s0QD0
1 week ago
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Thank you!
1 week ago
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August monthly mean temperatures since the start of the measurements in Longyearbyen (Svalbard). August 2024 was not only record-warm, it broke the previous record also by a striking, record-large margin of 2.6°C.
It all started with this infamous temperature graph... 📈
1 week ago
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The award is based on a peer-reviewed research publication published in the previous year.
In my case, it was the publication "Svalbard's Record-Breaking Arctic Summer 2024: Anomalies Beyond Climatological Warming Trends":
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
1 week ago
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Happy to share that I was one of the winners of this year's FMI Early Career Scientist Awards! 🏆️
en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/news/6ShMYhx...
1 week ago
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This three-panel map plot shows the observed temperature anomaly in Finland in March 2026 relative to the 1991–2020 average (a), how much of this anomaly was due to climate change (b), and how many times more likely the temperatures was due to climate change (c).
I wrote a short climate change attribution analysis for the record-warm March in Finland.
Across the country, the month was 1.6–2.4 °C warmer and 4–15% more likely due to climate change.
The report in Finnish: www.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/puheenvuoro/...
1 week ago
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Mijn artikel voor Trouw aangaande de aanstaande, potentieel sterke, El Niño👇
1 week ago
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Door het gebrek aan zeeijs worden ijsberen het land op gedwongen. Voor het Spitsbergenrendier betekent het zijn eerste natuurlijke vijand.
www.trouw.nl/wetenschap/n...
2 weeks ago
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New: The April update to the ECMWF seasonal forecast shows an even greater likelihood of a strong El Niño later this year.
A few ensemble members go to +3.5 °C anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region!
2 weeks ago
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Door het gebrek aan zeeijs worden ijsberen het land op gedwongen. Voor het Spitsbergenrendier betekent het zijn eerste natuurlijke vijand.
www.trouw.nl/wetenschap/n...
2 weeks ago
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El Niño forecast ECWMF.
If ECMWF's El Niño forecast verifies, we're in for a crazy ride in the upcoming months/year.
2 weeks ago
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The maximum sea ice extent in the winter of 2026, tied last year's record low. Data source: NSIDC, figure from CarbonBrief
Global sea surface temperatures in March surpassed the records set during the previous El Niño.
Global warming becomes extra tangible in months like these.
It's undeniable that global temperatures are rising.🌍
Beyond individual March atmospheric temperature records, we also saw:
- record-warm global sea surface temperatures 🌊🔥
- record-low Arctic sea ice 🧊📉
🧵 (9/9)
2 weeks ago
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They also 'forget' the fact that warm records vastly outnumber cold records.
Both in terms of severity, as well as in terms of frequency.
🧵 (8/9)
2 weeks ago
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You're right, sorry - it should be 'warm records vastly outnumber cold records'. Gonna change it, thanks for the heads up!!
2 weeks ago
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The climate "skeptics" love to cherry-pick individual cold records.
They forgot to mention that March was warmer than average in Vostok, despite the cold record.
🧵 (7/9)
2 weeks ago
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A record cold March temperature was set at Vostok, in Antarctica🇦🇶.
🧵 (6/9)
bsky.app/profile/extr...
2 weeks ago
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March was extremely warm to record warm in the majority of the US.
In some areas, March was so warm that it even exceeded previous April records. 🚨
🧵 (5/9)
bsky.app/profile/extr...
2 weeks ago
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🇺🇸 And then there was, of course, the bizarre heatwave in the US.
Figure by @wxnb.bsky.social
🧵 (4/9)
2 weeks ago
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March average temperature anomalies in Finland. Dark red station indicate a warmth record for march. The big majority of land stations set new March records.
Sondankylä broke its previous March record (1920) by a margin of 1.6°C.
🇫🇮 Finland saw the warmest March at almost every station on land! 🚨
Only some coastal stations were slightly less warm, due to the presence of sea ice.
Map of nationwide🇫🇮 March anomalies and Sodankylä📍 temp graph attached.👇️
🧵 (3/9)
2 weeks ago
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March temperatures since the late 1800s in Tromsø. March 2026 (marked in red) is the first March to neasure an average temperature above 2°C.
Bodø is breaking it's previous March record by a large margin, measuring a March average above 4°C for the first time on record.
Karasjok March temperatures. March 2026 is indicated by the red circle.
On the Norwegian mainland🇳🇴, many long term stations broke their March records.
📍 Tromsø, Karasjok, Bodø are just some of them.
🧵 (2/9)
2 weeks ago
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Yearly March temperature at Jan Mayen. March 2026 (marked in the red circle) was the warmest on record (-0.6°C), narrowingly beating 2004 (-0.7°C).
🌡️ Wild March temperature records worldwide 🇫🇮🇳🇴🇺🇸🇦🇶
Besides the US, March was record-breaking across northern Europe
📍 High Arctic first: Jan Mayen had its warmest March on record 📈
📍 Most stations on Svalbard: 2nd or 3rd warmest
🧵 (1/9)
2 weeks ago
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I was counting on a slow and cold start of spring, given the cold January-February and extensive sea ice.
Instead, Finland is seeing a record-warm March.
What would March have looked like if the preceding months (and sea surface temperatures in the Baltic) had been warm too?
3 weeks ago
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Monthly mean temperature anomaly in March 2026 in Europe. Figure downloaded from http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.
Incredibly warm March after such a cold Jan-Feb.
The month will go down in history as the first March in Finland with nationwide mean temperature above freezing (0 °C).
Practically all weather stations will set new March mean temperature record, except those located further out in the Baltic Sea.
3 weeks ago
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In het Engels staat 'normvervaging' ook wel bekend als 'shifting baseline syndrome' 👇
bsky.app/profile/daan...
3 weeks ago
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A mild winter, few snow days.
And yet many experienced it as “cold” and “snowy.”
That’s the shifting baseline syndrome.
Ironically: the warmer the climate, the faster winter weather feels “extreme.” ❄️
🧵 (9/9)
A translation of my 🇳🇱 thread.👇️
bsky.app/profile/daan...
3 weeks ago
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Chart shows the annual number of winter days with a maximum temperature below 0°C (also termed "ice days") from about 1901 to 2026. Values vary strongly year to year, with many winters in the early and mid-20th century having around 10–20 ice days and some peaks above 40 days, while recent decades are mostly lower, often near 0–10 days. The most recent value is highlighted with a red circle: 2026 only saw 2 so-called ice days.
Graph of winter Hellmann cold sum (De Bilt, Netherlands) from 1901–2026, showing strong year-to-year variability and a long-term decline. Hellmann points measure winter cold by summing the degrees below 0 °C of the daily mean temperature (e.g., a day with an average temperature of −3 °C contributes 3 points). Higher values indicate colder winters. Recent winters generally have low Hellmann totals, consistent with a warming trend. 2026, by many perceived as a 'cold winter', is clearly positioned as a mild winter.
Chart shows the annual number of winter days with a minimum temperature below 0°C (frost days) from about 1901 to 2026. Values vary strongly year to year, with many winters in the early and mid-20th century having between 25–60 frost days and some peaks above 70 days, while recent decades are mostly lower, often near 20–30 days. The most recent value is highlighted with a red circle: 2026 only just over 30 so-called frost days.
Finally: other metrics also show this was not a severe winter.
Few ice days, limited frost days, a low Hellmann cold index.
In a historical context, this was simply a mild winter.
🧵 (8/9)
3 weeks ago
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That snow depth was exceptional, though.
The combination of a thick snowpack and the fact that we’re less used to it helps explain the disruption and logistic chaos.
That, too, is shifting baselines.
🧵 (7/9)
3 weeks ago
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