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On the basis of this analog, my forecast for the rest of Dec is that after a mild start, the second week will be colder, followed by an increasingly mild rest of the month, particularly in Scotland & N Ireland.😉
#ukweather

🌡️2 Sep - 30 Nov 2024
🌡️2 Sep - 1 Dec 2025
National 7 day avg temp anomalies
I noticed the cold spell at the end of November bore a remarkable similarity to the one that occurred in 2024.
#ukweather

1-24 Nov 2025
Number of Air Frosts
Probably close to the LTA in most places.
I'll have to check the stats.
11 Frosts in Strathpeffer.
#ukweather

Yes I did.
They're still playing catch up with the ECMWF as far as NWP is concerned.

24-29 Nov 2025
ECMWF
00 UTC
This weeks weather in brief:
▪️N'ly Mon
▪️Ridge Tue-Wed
▪️Zonality & strong winds Thu-Sat
#ukweather

23 Nov 2025
09 UTC
Surface analysis
Typical extratropical low.
Maybe a little further N than NWP suggested.
#ukweather

23 Aug-22 Nov 2025
National Average Temps & Anomalies
7 day moving average
The graphs shows the recent mild spell at the start of the month & this cold spell.
The warm Sep & Oct in Scotland is also in evidence.
#ukweather

20 Nov 2025
12 UTC
Temp anomalies
Another cold day across the board, particularly across E England with anomalies of -6°C to -8°C in places.
#ukweather
@metoffice.gov.uk

18 Nov 2025
18 UTC
T+78
The midday run is faster with the low that zips down from the NW.
The UKMO has finally caught up with the others.
Shame these charts weren't for 06 UTC, if they had, the chance of snow on lower ground may have been higher.
#ukweather #snow
@metoffice.gov.uk

13 Nov 2025
12 UTC
Surface analysis
Another fascinating chart!
This is what I love about the weather of the British Isles.😍
#ukweather
@metoffice.gov.uk

13 Nov 2025
12 UTC
Temp anomalies
Rather cold in Scotland & N Ireland (-3°C), very mild again across England & Wales (+7°C).
#ukweather

11 Nov 2025
12 UTC
Surface analysis
Dewpoints of 12 & 13°C in the warm sector.
South cones hoisted at St Mary's.
#ukweather

11-25 Nov 2025
12 UTC
As in previous runs, the ECMWF are forecasting that pressure will build in from the NW by Thu, introducing a much colder, wintry spell of weather across Scotland from the 13th-21st.
A milder, zonal type returns after that.
#ukweather
@metoffice.gov.uk

1-8 Nov 2025
Mean Temp Anomalies
An incredibly mild start to Nov, particularly across NW England, with +5°C anomalies.
If the forecast cold wave comes off, this could end up being a month of two distinct halves temperature wise.
#ukweather
@metoffice.gov.uk

9-23 Nov 2025
12 UTC
A consistent signal from the ECMWF over the last few days of a cold wave, which will start on Thu in N Scotland, will gradually push S by next weekend.
#ukweather #snow
@metoffice.gov.uk

8 Jun - 7 Nov 2025
UK & Ireland
Daily Temps & anomalies
The cold AC spell of 22-26 Sep stands out well, as do the 3 heatwaves.
Composite values based on 139 stations
#ukweather
@metoffice.gov.uk

Novembers
1910-2025
Mildest & Coldest
As mild as it's been for the first six days, it's going to have to keep it up for the rest of the month, if it's going to have any chance of beating 1994.
#ukweather #November
@metoffice.gov.uk
@paultheweatherman.bsky.social

1-6 Nov 2025
Mean Temp
Anomalies
Not really breaking news but - it's been a very mild start to November across the UK & Ireland, with mean anomalies as high as +4°C quite widely.
#ukweather
@metoffice.gov.uk

6 Nov 2025
Quite a number of stations with 20 consecutive 'rain days' (>=0.2 mm) at the moment.
We're on 19 (now 20) here in Strathpeffer, and although it's not been overly wet, it's never been completely dry either.
#ukweather

3 Nov 2025
12 UTC
Temp anomalies
A mild day across the board, but very mild across the E, with anomalies of +7°C for 12 UTC in NE Scotland.
#ukweather
@metoffice.gov.uk

3 Nov 2025
09 UTC
Surface analysis
Super mild air, dewpoints of 13°C across Ireland.
#ukweather
@metoffice.gov.uk

2 Nov 2025
Consecutive wet days
Up to 15 days here in the strath.
A late autumn here - grass still growing & at least 50% of trees still in leaf.
#ukweather #autumn
@metoffice.gov.uk

1-14 Nov 2025
ECMWF
2M Temp Anomalies
06 & 12 UTC
Some very mild days & nights to look forward to in the next 10 days by the looks of this forecast.
#ukweather

1-30 Oct 2025
October looks like it'll end up:-
☂️Wetter than avg in the NW drier further S & E
☀️Widely duller than avg especially in NW
🌡️Slightly warmer than avg across NE Scotland, closer to avg
#ukweather
@metoffice.gov.uk

North Atlantic
Tropical Cyclones
Deepest & Strongest
1851-2025
Provisionally, I make Melissa the joint third deepest Hurricane in the record (892 hPa) & joint second strongest on 1 minute mean speed (160 kts).
#ukweather #Melissa

1 Nov 2025
00 UTC
GFS
T+120
Halloween is starting to look interesting weather wise🤔
Naming it storm BRAM would be spooky! 🧙‍♀️
#ukweather #StormBram #Halloween
@metoffice.gov.uk

27 Oct - 4 Nov 2025
ECMWF
It's a long way off yet but the latest forecast, has ex-hurricane Melissa eventually getting caught up by the jet stream & then hurtling towards SW England by Nov 3 for some early fireworks.
#ukweather #Melissa
@metoffice.gov.uk

25 Oct 2025
10 UTC
Wind Chill [JAG]
Here are the latest wind chill values using the JAG formula.
Ranging from -13°C at 3,000 ft in the Cairngorms to 10°C on the south coast.
#ukweather #windchill
@metoffice.gov.uk

25 Oct 2025
1118 UTC
Cairngorm
Heriot-Watt AWS
The miserable lot at the Met Office might not want me to see their SIESAWS observations, but for the moment I can see these.
I've written an application to download, parse & visualise their 30 min obs.
#ukweather #cairngorm
@metoffice.gov.uk