Increasingly in the UK, the response to economic problems is not to treat causes, but instead to treat symptoms with price regulation.
We have:
⚠️ Minimum wage
⚠️ Energy price cap
⚠️ Rent controls
⚠️ Affordable housing quotas
And plans for:
⚠️ Maximum wage controls
⚠️ Food price caps
Terry did a great job of spotting this new market opportunity. However, what the book lacks is much discussion of the failure of the few years. He simply kept buying (mainly) consumer stocks that blew-up due to management mis-steps: Nike, Estée Lauder, Brown-Forman, PayPal, Unilever, McCormick.
Very good for seeing Terry's evolution from focused almost exclusively upon consumer staples investing to an embrace of a broad array technology-enabled growth companies across healthcare, payments, software, and data services.
Latest reading: "Investing for Growth" by Terry Smith. This is an anthology of his previous writings (annual reports, press articles), so nothing new in here for dedicated Terry followers.
UKTI ⅛ 2046 at 65.6 for a YTM of RPI+2.3% is surely interesting?
(Column A x Column B) + Column A + Column B.
89.
Hiking interest rates in response to a supply-shock driven jump in oil prices is absolutely the perfect recipe for a recession.
Update: I've just added a falling knife to my PA portfolio. Wish me luck.
(Entry price: 3,711p)
Yeah, I think a lot of his holdings are decent companies; he just has a habit of over-paying for them.
Another Nick Train special:
It's a cool and still spring day, so there is little wind or solar for the UK, and so we're relying on gas and imports for our electricity generation. Disastrous energy security situation to be in.
Craft brewers dropping like dominoes.
Almost zero recovery value for investors/lenders.
It was a ZIRP phenomenon.
I'm really not impressed by much of the news output from the BBC, but I'm absolutely blown away by Steve Rosenberg's reporting from on the ground in Moscow. Consistently excellent and incredibly brave.
These are actually sensible policies and most people will be quite surprised that we don't do these things already.
Wishing you a speedy recovery Duncan!
"Move your listing to the US", they said.
"You'll capture a higher multiple", they said.
Latest reading: "Another Way" by Dave Whorton. Part autobiography, part Silicon Valley history, this book charts the journey of a former Kleiner Perkins partner from venture capitalist to conservative long-term growth investor.
Oooft!
Big trade-down effect at work here?
The right wing press could be like the dog that caught the car if their calls for Kier Starmer to resign succeed.
Any replacement will certainly be more left wing and will have over 3 years in power until the next election.
5 software/data firms and 2 consumer staples names in a top 10 that compose 90% of NAV.
Indeed. I keep coming back to my view that the main sin here is position-sizing and factor/sector concentration risk.
That's going to be brutal today! 😬😬
Pouring one out tonight for Nick Train and Terry Smith, who rode consumer staples all the way down, before rotating into data services stocks, which are now getting smashed on the assumed threat from AI.
Latest reading: "The Land Trap" by @birdyword.bsky.social, which looks at how land functions in the economy, and covers a series of major bubbles and how government policies have shaped them. A very readable mix of economic theory and history.
Another compounder bro favourite "never sell" stock getting absolutely crushed.
