[confusing nod] “Good to know. Not sure what that means, but it sounds…promising.” 👍

Pilots announcing the visibility and wind direction at the destination to the entire cabin == me describing the identification strategy of a paper cited in my slides to my undergrad lecture.

That's definitely possible. Still I think the concern has more to do with the awful lottery odds. You can have deeply affordable units + local prioritization, but if there aren't enough units to go around, then it doesn't mean much. Teasing out these mechanisms would be a great follow-up project.

This is an excellent paper, very happy to see it in the AJPS!

Beautiful paper, read, set in your classes, think about, cite, extend, etc.

In sum, homeowners & renters are “the policy adjacent”—indirect winners & losers of affordable housing. We identify similar groups for other policies (eg, SNAP) & set an agenda for studying the spillover effects of policy on long-term support.

Replication: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm... 9/9

Our findings present a trade-off. Renters want local priority, but the FHA limits such prioritization due to entrenching segregation. NYC was recently forced to lower local prioritization via court order, but Jersey City is pursuing 100% local priority by using only local funds. 8/9

But the ability of affordable housing to ⬆️ home values may threaten renters, who are unlikely to receive a unit in the project due to long wait lists. The renter backlash to new affordable housing is driven by gentrifying neighborhoods, where housing instability is greatest. 7/9

Why do homeowners & renters respond differently? New affordable housing often replaces blight, increasing nearby home values. Homeowners like this. To quote a homeowner who had written to his mayor to try to block a LIHTC development: "If they wanted to build another, more power to them." 6/9

We also find null results using a placebo of the “near-far” design. Results consistently polarize by homeownership status, not other block-level traits (e.g., race). We also conduct a bounding exercise to estimate how much of our effect may be driven by residential sorting rather than persuasion 5/9

But affordable housing may be targeted at the micro-level. So, we compare blocks near housing built from '03-'06 to blocks near housing built from '07-'10. These blocks are equally targetable for housing, but only some are treated prior to the '06 bond. Results are comparable. 4/9

Comparing blocks near new affordable housing to blocks slightly farther away, majority homeowner blocks ⬆️ support for the '06 bond by 2 to 3 p.p. In contrast, “renter blocks” ⬇️ support by 1 to 2 p.p. Results are the same if treatment is defined by proximity or # of units. 3/9

In '02 & '06, Californians voted on nearly identical $2+ billion housing bonds. We measure how affordable housing built from '03 through '06 affected support for these bonds at the block-level. Thus, we have pre- & post-treatment behavioral data on how policy implementation ➡️ policy support 2/9

Building affordable housing ➡️ support for funding housing.

Nearby homeowners ⬆️ support; renters ⬇️ support. Both are “the policy adjacent”—secondhand recipients & drivers of policy feedback.

Forthcoming @ajpseditor.bsky.social ( doi.org/10.1111/ajps...) w/ A. Magazinnik & @msands.bsky.social 1/9

Next week, I will be at the #2025APPAM Annual Fall Research Conference in Seattle. I will be presenting new work on the local politics of renewable energy siting as well as updates on building a national housing permits database.

If you want to connect, please reach out: hankinson@gwu.edu

A great overview of an important local gov’t reform! Ties together many different literatures and shows how the unexpected can happen in implementation. Thanks @jacksantucci.bsky.social !

I'm excited to share that we're running a junior faculty search in American politics. Proud to see GWU continue to invest in political science. Link: www.gwu.jobs/postings/122...

Our findings shed new light on the political challenges of achieving decarbonization, where local governments must balance national goals with local resistance.

Come to "The Comparative Politics of Clean-Energy Siting," Friday, 2 pm, VCC East Ballroom.

On Friday at #APSA, I'll be presenting new research on how political geography shapes the siting of collective goods. We use the consolidation of municipalities in Denmark to show how the distribution of entire electorate affects where wind energy is politically viable.

In Vancouver for the APSA Annual Meeting. First time visiting the city and I rented a bike for a 2-hour spin. Blown away. Bike infrastructure on par with Denmark plus miles of trails in the middle of UBC’s campus (4 miles from downtown).

“Many seek results, too few seek understanding.”

You told me that last time we hung out. It stuck with me.

Engineered extrachromosomal oncogene amplifications promote tumorigenesis - Nature Large extrachromosomal DNAs are engineered using a CRISPR- and Cre–loxP-based approach and shown to drive cancer in mouse models, with potential applications in determining the role of oncogene a...

Nature article: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Rui Gao on LinkedIn: Engineered extrachromosomal oncogene amplifications promote tumorigenesis… Happy to share that a significant research project from my PhD is finally out in 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 today! 🎉🧬 For the first time, we show that gene amplifications…

So proud of my wife, Rui Gao! Her dissertation research has led to a breakthrough in understanding ecDNA-amplified cancers, opening paths for better treatments in the future.

And a co-first author publication in Nature is a nice outcome as well :)

www.linkedin.com/posts/ruigao...

The Robert E. Lane Award for the best book in political psychology published in the past year. 2024: Alex Coppock (Yale University) Persuasion in Parallel: How Information Changes Minds about Politics (University of Chicago Press, 2023) 2024: (Honorable mention) Alexandra Filindra Race, Rights, and Rifles: The Origins of the NRA and Contemporary Gun Culture (University of Chicago Press, 2023) 2023: Efrén Pérez (University of California, Los Angeles) and Margit Tavits (Washington University in St. Louis) Voicing Politics: How Language Shapes Public Opinion (Princeton University Press, 2022) 2022: Cigdem V. Sirin (University of Texas, El Paso), Nicholas A. Valentino (University of Michigan), and Jose D. Villalobos (University of Texas, El Paso) Seeing Us in Them: Social Divisions and the Politics of Group Empathy (Cambridge University Press, 2021) 2021: Nicole M. Bauer (Louisiana State University) The Qualifications Gap: Why Women Must Be Better than Men to Win Political Office (Cambridge University Press, 2020) 2020: Ashley Jardina (Duke University) White Identity Politics (Cambridge University Press, 2019) 2020: Markus Prior (Princeton University) Hooked (Cambridge University Press, 2018) 2019: Gwyneth McClendon (New York University) Envy in Politics (Princeton University Press, 2018)

PHILIP E. CONVERSE AWARD Given for an outstanding book in the field published five or more years ago. 2024: Dan Hopkins, The Increasingly United States 2023: Jaime Settle, Frenemies: How Social Media Polarizes America. 2022: Ted Brader. Campaigning for Hearts and Minds: How Emotional Appeals in Political Ads Work 2021: Samara Klar and Yanna Krupnikov. Independent Politics: How American Disdain for Parties Leads to Political Inaction 2020: Christopher F. Karpowitz and Tali Mendelberg. The Silent Sex: Gender, Deliberation, & Institutions 2019: Green, Donald P., Bradley Palmquest, and Eric Schickler. Partisan Hearts and Minds: Political Parties and the Social Identities of Voters.

I'm on two 📘 award committees for APSA, deadlines March 1, 2025

Robert Lane Award (with Nichole Bauer and Markus Prior)
connect.apsanet.org/s28/nominati...

Converse Award (with @wzcmarsh.bsky.social, @jfdaoust.bsky.social, @hmridge.bsky.social)
connect.apsanet.org/s32/awards/

pls nominate & share

Very cool research opportunity here!

We're hiring in American Politics at the junior level. Position will be affiliated with GW’s Institute for Data, Democracy and Politics. Applications due January 2nd. I'm on sabbatical, but I am happy to answer questions about the dept., broadly. DM me. www.gwu.jobs/postings/116...

The Renters’ Republic | Charlie Dulik In a majority-homeowner nation, the rental crisis alone cannot explain Harris’s defeat, especially since the concentration of renters in cities means that as a group they likely still tilted toward he...

“Harris’s [supply-increasing] housing plan responded to an urgent crisis with reforms whose benefits would be felt slowly if at all.” It is worse than that: Renters tend to oppose supply increases, as @hankinson.bsky.social has shown. www.nplusonemag.com/online-only/... LIST 01%2F06%2F2020

Using tax dollars to block new housing is bad policy - The Boston Globe More than a dozen communities have been accused of ‘weaponizing’ the sale of public land to stop housing development.

Excited to see @maxwellpalmer.bsky.social and my research in this @bostonglobe.com op-ed this morning. The use of public money to actively block much-needed affordable housing is appalling, and shows the strength of opposition to new housing in Greater Boston. www.bostonglobe.com/2024/11/25/o...

I’m adding a day on path dependence to my undergrad Intro to Policy Analysis class. Would love recommendations for favorite podcasts/news articles/etc that illustrate the concept!