2/2
28 Darcy Rota, neck injury
28 Blaine Stoughton, somehow sent to minors at age 30
27 Patrice Bergeron, the player most comparable to Ovechkin, retiring on his own terms ending with Selke
27 Joe Pavelski, sorta comp
This is how unprecedented it would be for Ovi to retire
Ovi has 32 goals
Most goals in player's last season:
38 Mike Bossy, early retirement
31 Frank Mahovlich, absonded to WHA
30 Kenny Wharram, myocarditis
29 Gordie Drillon, joins Royal Canadian Air Force in WWII
28 Gerry Heffernan, sent to minors after winning Stanley Cup
1/2
Notice that both Snell and Sale have their fastball move by 18 total inches
The direction of movement off their arm angle is very similar
Indeed, the "turning of the dial" is both about 15 minutes
I know all love to talk about IVB (induced vertical break)
But that does not live independently
You cant talk about movement (vertical or otherwise) of Blake Snell + Chris Sale without starting from their physical starting point: their arm angle
From there, dominos fall to IVB
On Left: Amount of Ride and Arm Side movement of 4-seam fastballs, relative to arm angle
On Right: Same data, but magnitude of movement relative to the baseline for that arm angle
The large driver to direction of movement is arm angle (which drives release direction)
@swingsandtakes.com
There might be other reasons the denominator might be off in Search. I'd recommend going here first to match against
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/...
Since the 2017-18 season, it is Nikita Kucherov, and NOT Connor McDavid, who leads in the NHL in scoring, based on ice time
Here are the scoring leaders, per 1600 minutes played
Source: sports-reference.com/stathead/tin...
Right, these are what the model has. We can of course create even more scenarios like you are pointing out. It's just that these are the most likely scenarios to cover
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/...
Certainly talent fluctuates, not only year to year, but day to day, even pitch to pitch! Thats because players are human, and humans actually are in a constant state of flux
However, Random Variation swamps any of that flux
Have you been looking at my code?!?
Let's wait a month before I look into it...
2026 Called Strike Rate
By Proximity to Border of Strike Zone
Initial Umpire
v
Final including ABS
The more calls are reversed, the steeper the curve to expect. Perfect challenges would have a line straight down at 0
(Initial) Umpire Called Strike Rate
By Proximity to Border of Strike Zone
Hart Voting Totals, for the 9 seasons since 2017 season
- McJ only one in all 9
- Old Man tied for second with 7
- only appearance by Taylor Hall was his MVP year
- no D among top 20
- Hellebuyck top goalie
- Ovi 6 seasons, but overall outstide top 20
Source:
@hockey-reference.com
Yes, I've talked about the 50% "issue" on the other side. We're just talking about changing the size of the box to get identical outcomes anyway
Say your buffer zone is +/-0.5 inches
Three things will happen
1. Issue of presentation
2. Showing balls just miss clipping buffer zone by same < 0.1 inches as image below
3. # of challenges will jump, since you wont lose challenge on "call stands"; players will be even MORE emboldened to challenge
That seems to be a terrific solution!
Yes, we do calculate it multiple ways, in the "x-z" plane and in the velocity plane. The arm angle plane would be similar
You can see the direction (but not magnitude) here. If you go to the leaderboard page, you can pick out pitchers with much more separation
Blog Post: ABS Challenge Run Values
tangotiger.com/index.php/si...
Remind me of hockey: theres a scramble and goalie makes 3 or 4 saves in rapid succession on a 2-on-0... he prevented one goal over span of 5 seconds, even though he made 4 saves
In terms of xG, he might have saved say 0.5 goals on each save, and say saved 2.0 goals, even if it should be capped at 1
That was in fact my question to the team! Brilliant insight on your part
Run value is coming (very) soon...
As expected, catchers are not only challenging at 2:1 rate over batters, but they are also much more successful. Look to see that bump to 3:1 ratio
Also as expected, pitchers provide no added-value to catchers. The catcher understands not only that pitch, but also game strategy
And he ended up saving him a lost challenge!
If it's a matter of opinion, then we are both correct
If it's a matter of fact, then one of us is incorrect, and that leaves me with being correct!
Agreed... Forsberg put it on the map as a legit reason
Hasek/Roy elevated it to inevitable
Especially for an American market that for some reason doesn't like draws
No, you did not "lose" the game. The only game you actually lost was losing in regulation
Everything else is a PENALTY...
Draws as half-wins are a perfect sabermetric handling
Blame Peter Forsberg for the shootout being implemented in NHL: it was an incredibly tense moment watching that live for the first time
Of course, it no longer is true now
NHL Standings with the more correct 5-point system
West: same 8 teams, same order
East: Penguins get knocked out, with Islanders/Senators taking their place
5 - Regulation Win
4 - OT Win
3 - Shootout Win
2 - SO Loss
1 - OT Loss
0 - Reg Loss
Blog Post: ABS Challenge Rates by Proximity to Border of Strike Zone
tangotiger.com/index.php/si...
Coming soon... Runs Gained on ABS Challenge
The Yankees are VERY aggressive on their challenges. But it doesn't matter as long as they are getting good overturns, which they are
The Reds are VERY efficient... but a bit TOO efficient, leaving unused challenges on the table