Rather sad that one’s first reaction to a Presidential statement extending a ceasefire is to wonder what has been happening with trading in oil futures.

Not just to Iranian economic life.

Pretty sure the Click Grifter is a wading bird, previously common in Essex but now sadly endangered.

Since the Cabinet Office was in charge of drawing all the paperwork together for the disclosure exercise (since September last year), I assume it was not only FCDO officials making that judgement.

I think you can make a strong case that Ministers should not be involved in security vetting. The rules are clearly designed to avoid that, for good reason. I'm less clear why the PM could not have been told *after* Mandelson had been sacked. I guess we may find that out at tomorrow's FAC.

Trump Extends Sanctions Exemption on Some Russian Oil as High Gas Prices Persist

Imagine my surprise.

The Trump administration has loosened restrictions on Russian oil exports since the war in the Middle East began to rattle energy markets in March.

The suggestion that the aim now is to reach a "framework agreement" which can then be fleshed out by expert working groups addressing the (multiple) points of difference makes sense. Perhaps some experienced diplomats are beginning to get a hearing.

Ecclesiastes 12:12: "Of making many books there is no end, and much study is a weariness of the flesh."

Good advice which I've usually ignored.

Under international law, transit through waterways like the Strait of Hormuz must remain open and free of charge. This is what leaders made clear in their call on reopening the Strait today. (1/3)

Reports suggest it was his links with China, not Epstein, that were the problem.

(And speaking personally, not everyone lies to their vetters.)

We are regularly told that civil servants are too risk-averse. As Cabinet Secretary Gus O' Donnell told us to "Ask forgiveness, don't ask permission". All very well, until something goes wrong.

(Tbf, one of my old bosses on the JIC told me "That probably doesn't apply to you").

One might say the same about Epstein, except that only seems to apply in the UK, not the US.

It's quite frustrating if you do want to look at it properly: you can't because of everyone taking their selfies (same goes for the Garden of Earthly Delights in the Prado).

Packed day in Berlin at the Sudan conference.

Vital talks. But they only count if the results are felt by the Sudanese people facing atrocities everyday.

Sudan needs action, not words.

NPR's summary makes it sound as if this is all part of some carefully constructed US master plan for the region, rather than being made up as they go along. Can't say I'm entirely convinced.

Our evaluation of Claude Mythos Preview’s cyber capabilities | AISI Work We conducted cyber evaluations of Anthropic’s Claude Mythos Preview and found continued improvement in capture-the-flag (CTF) challenges and significant improvement on multi-step cyber-attack simulati...

This paper represents a small but deeply impressive and genuinely important achievement by the much maligned British state in what is probably the most important global issue of our era.

Hear me out ( 🧵) 1/

www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-eva...

Done!

... ducked if the eventual investment decisions are to be judged in a sensible strategic context. 5/5

...uncertainty and volatility. And defence is only one aspect: intelligence, diplomatic and overseas aid capabilities are (or should be) factors in the overall national security equation. Plus, the answer will probably be rather awkward in its financial implications. But it can't be... 4/5

... what, as a nation, we want the armed forces to do. The 1998 SDR addressed that; the 2025 version did not (when I asked Lord Robertson why, he said that it would all be in the Defence Investment Plan).

I can understand the difficulty of answering this question at a time of such global... 3/5

...a big problem remains that the current debate is all about inputs (cf the CST on the Today programme this morning). There is hardly ever a proper discussion of the desired *outputs* in terms of scale and military capability. But that would require presenting a view on... 2/5

When I was head of the HMT defence spending team, I had about a dozen staff (also covering FCO and intelligence spending). Admittedly, that was 25 years ago, but it would surely be a huge cultural and organisational change for the Treasury to "take over" procurement. In any case... 1/5

Indeed!

www.iiss.org/online-analy...

A timely reminder that Iran might have other routes to a nuclear weapons capability apart from indigenous enrichment of uranium. The DPRK gave significant help in the early stages of Iran's ballistic missile programme, (though things didn't run entirely smoothly).

For anyone trying to look ahead, keeping an eye on US military deployments to the region - particularly army and/or marines - is good advice.

Funny to think that when I was posted to Washington in the 1990s, Cato were regarded as the far right think tank. Now Heritage have gone MAGA they seem practically middle-of-the road.

I doubt anything like years. But I agree that what it could well do is increase international and domestic pressure on the US rather than on Iran.

Even more so when you consider that Iran wants the tolls paid in crypto-currency. I'm not an expert, but I guess that means payments will be hard to track?

Looking foward to the next Woodward book. Wonder what he'll call it? He's already had "Fear", "Rage" and "War" - so maybe "Revenge". (Or "Chaos"?)

Phew.