Link to the paper 😎😎 :

4ecf9d9a-5a64-4d45-b5c8-a6981207c9da.filesusr.com/ugd/fa83d8_a...

Finally, through our structural framework, we propose a "cleansing" method to isolate the underlying inflation belief that ultimately drives the reported forecasts.

Building on this evidence, we propose a quantitative model integrating Bayesian belief updating with forecast revision costs and strategic concerns. We replicate the observed lumpiness and shed light on forecasters' apparent overreactions to new information.

Framed on a fixed-event forecasting framework, we document the impact of lumpiness and consensus pressure on forecast adjustments. To do this, we rely on a relatively unexplored survey of professional forecasters from Bloomberg, where the consensus can be observed in real time.

We argue that Professional forecasters adjust their inflation forecasts in a lumpy pattern, making infrequent but substantial revisions. Strategic concerns play a significant role in that forecasters are more likely to adjust, when their forecasts deviate from the consensus

On Christmas evening 🎄🎅, check out our new paper, "Lumpy Forecasts", joint with the amazing @isaacbaley.bsky.social. We are very excited to share our work and hear your thoughts and reactions. Here's a short threat:

What a great conference @SEDmeeting , great papers, venue and good to catch up with co-authors and friends!

Home The Santiago Macro Workshop is an annual workshop that aims at bringing together macroeconomists from Chile and abroad to achieve three goals. First, to be a venue to discuss the latest research on ma...

This week we have the VIII (!!) version of the Santiago Macro Workshop !
Program available here:

sites.google.com/view/santiag...

Come join us if you are around!!

New paper: benjaminmoll.com/challenge/