Another key point: Dem polling has said resistance to the new maps has been from white "good government" liberals rather than Black voters, despite a lot of GOP ads targeting the latter group.
www.huffpost.com/entry/vote-t...
The key is whether a chunk of the voters who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 will vote against drawing the new maps. If the number is 10% or less, Democrats are confident they’ll prevail. As it approaches 15%, Democratic operatives said Republicans are more likely to triumph. Another Democrat who was briefed on the race but did not have authorization to speak to the press, said internal polling showed stubborn resistance to new maps among many white liberals in Northern Virginia – a bloc of voters long attracted to “good government” positions on issues like gerrymandering – even as Black voters throughout the state quickly got behind the new maps. But more recent polling has shown that resistance to drawing new lines is fading in the heavily Democratic suburbs of Washington, D.C. In many cases, voters simply did not understand why Democrats needed to draw the new maps – a sharp contrast to a successful November referendum in California, where voters understood the state’s new maps, eliminating five GOP-held seats, were meant to be a direct response to Texas’ elimination of five Democratic-held seats.
What will determine tonight's Virginia redistricting vote: What % of Harris voters vote 'no' -- if it's between 5-10%, Democrats probably get their new maps. If it's around 15%, things look really good for the GOP.
www.huffpost.com/entry/vote-t...
I spoke to an ICE observer who was detained last week after following DHS agents to record them. She was not arrested.
Five days later, her Global Entry was revoked.
A day after I asked DHS about her case, her Global Entry was restored.
www.huffpost.com/entry/ice-wa...
Two noteworthy tidbits:
- Some progressives clearly see crypto as the lesser of two evils, both politically and morally, when compared to AIPAC.
-Crypto gave IL09 winner Daniel Biss an 'A' on their scorecard, which he seemed baffled by in an interview.
After crypto sunk Porter + Brown last cycle, Dems were clearly wary of getting on the wrong side of the industry but some are rethinking things after two candidates survived crypto-funded ad onslaughts in Illinois -->
This is turning into a very mixed night for the super PACs -->
Ford win is an L for both Crypto + AIPAC
Stratton win would be an L for crypto
Donna Miller win is a W for AIPAC, L for AI
Biss or Abughazaleh win is a L for AIPAC
Bean is a win for crypto, AI and AIPAC
New: The District AIPAC Couldn't Conquer.
What the group's apparent failure in Illinois' 9th District, one of the most Jewish districts in the country, says about the long battle between them and progressives.
www.huffpost.com/entry/the-di...
New w/ @delaneyrules.bsky.social: Two former House members with backing from moneyed outside interests are in strong position to win Tuesday's primaries, showing how big money could dash Democratic hopes for generational change in the party.
www.huffpost.com/entry/old-he...
Black voters also said they felt abandoned by their civic and political leaders, feeling Congressional Democrats, civil rights groups and Black church leaders weren't doing enough to push back on Trump.
New: Polling from a coalition of Black civic groups and unions found fear of violence + retaliation is keeping Black voters away from political participation in Trump 2.0, helping lead to a "resistance of privilege."
www.huffpost.com/entry/black-...
So SCOTUS, with its fabricated-out-of-thin-air immunity doctrine, has actually made American presidents less accountable than LITERAL royalty.
Jesse Jackson's campaigns for president in 1984 and 1988 helped create the image of what the modern Democratic Party seeks to be but rarely seems to achieve: a multiracial coalition of voters dedicated to economic fairness.
www.huffpost.com/entry/jesse-...
Biss campaign is out with an internal poll showing him with a substantial lead over Fine and Abughazaleh, 31% to 18% to 18%
Justice Dems are backing Kat Abughazaleh in the Illinois' 9th primary -- there are growing worries among sone on the left that Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss and Abughazaleh could split the progressive vote here and allow AIPAC-backed Laura Fine to triumph.
www.huffpost.com/entry/latest...
The issue can be a tad obscure -- corporate PACs make up a really small % of donations -- but it's clear there's voter interest: The first question at UAW forum for MI Senate candidates on Wednesday was about corporate PAC money.
Those who turn down the money (often but not always progressives) argue you can't stand up to Trumpian corruption while taking cash from those who enable it.
Those who take it say the other side rarely has totally clean hands.
See this exchange between Craig and Flanagan:
New: Corporate PAC $$$ is emerging as a major dividing line in Democratic primary battles, causing nasty fights in the Illinois, Minnesota and Michigan Senate races.
www.huffpost.com/entry/the-mo...
The first two Democrats a new AI super PAC are backing are...
1. Jesse Jackson, Jr., who did 30 months in prison in a corruption scandal.
2. Melissa Bean, who was considered among Wall Street's favorite Democrats during an earlier stint in Congress.
Incredible.
Meija, who is expected to join the squad, is really breaking into new territory for the left with this win. Compare her district's PVI to AOC's, etc.
NJ-11: D+5
NY-14, AOC: D+19
MN-5:, Omar D+32
MI-12, Tlaib: D+21
MA-7, Pressley: D+34
Analilia Mejia's win in NJ-11 is now official after Tom Malinowski conceded this morning, cementing a big win for the left and an embarrassing own goal for pro-Israel groups.
www.huffpost.com/entry/bernie...
GRIFFIN: “.. This administration has definitely made mis-steps in choosing decisions or courses that have been very, very enriching to the families of those in the administration.”
@financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/129b...
New: Trump admin was warned about possible Feeding Out Future fraud in 2020 -- and did nothing www.huffpost.com/entry/minnes...
Georgia Fort, an independent journalist and vice president of the Minnesota NABJ chapter, was also arrested by federal agents this morning
I was sent this video of agents at her door:
Most interesting part in the new Pew poll on Trump is the decline in GOP confidence, which is really starting to mirror Dems losing confidence in Biden.
Just 2/3 of GOP-leaning voters think he has the mental capacity to do the job and only 42% thinks he acts ethically.
From Nate Cohn's latest newsletter, this is why it's a lot more useful to think about "affordability" in terms of the cost of living rather than strictly about inflation: Voters are concerned about the cost of a middle-class life more than about the cost of things they buy daily -->
Such doubt was consistently echoed by senior officials in Biden admin deliberations, thru the end of their tenure — driving top officials to doubt humanitarian + intelligence experts unlike elsewhere & making it hard to justify shifts in US policy that could have saved lives.
More soon in my book.
