Thank you Chris!

fascinated that the PM found out on Tuesday but told neither Cooper nor Jones, who both only found out yesterday it seems? what were no10 doing with the information, if not discussing it with the ministers who oversee the vetting process and the department in question?

Certainly v questionable …

Trying to prevent the worse, even if the outcome is meh at best? Je ne sais pas… still pondering. But agree that sometimes it went way too far.

My mind is still not fully made up. My sense is that, to navigate Trump (and make sure he doesn’t - say - pull US out of NATO), you need those who flatter, those who criticise, and those who do a bit of both. But I do find Rutte’s flattery & announcements without prior coordination a bit much.

😅

3. Interesting that Macron - according to FT - refused the participation of VdL and NATO Sec-Gen Rutte. But not surprising: NATO necessarily involves US (and US has said it wd participate today) & no clear role for EU. Both cd be invited to future meeting. END.

2. French meeting, with large UK input: “coalition of the willing”meeting is being hosted in France, but on basis of close Franco-British cooperation. This is good and should be commended.

1. Better to talk, than do nothing: I know Macron loves a summit *but* US has criticised European countries for not doing enough to help; plus, securing the Strait is v challenging, both militarily & politically. It’s going to require several rounds of talks.

Macron and Starmer to hold summit on plan to secure Strait of Hormuz French and UK leaders are expected to brief Donald Trump after meeting on Friday

This critique of 🇫🇷 is unwarranted: “A European government official said expectations were very low about [today’s summit on the strait of Hormuz] yielding anything concrete despite the “very French” attempt at organising a grand event” www.ft.com/content/a348... why?

🇭🇺🥳

3) Even if Trump announces US withdrawal, withdrawal takes time, is not straightforward and requires Senate approval.

Trump threatening to pull out of NATO. This wd be terrible for Europe, yet European leaders are keeping quiet. Why?
1) Never overreact: Trump has a habit of backtracking. EU has learned to wait before responding.
2) Scenario-plan: European leaders will be exploring options, while engaging US/NATO.

Sorry, deleted previous thread for nuance :) -- but your point still stands!

(Have reposted thread for clarify and nuance)

France offers to station nuclear weapons across Europe for the first time President Emmanuel Macron lays out nuclear doctrine of ‘forward deterrence’

Long speech (as expected) but will comfort many EU countries worried about Russia and lessening of US security guarantee. Also important for FR to lock in deeper cooperation before 2027 election.
www.ft.com/content/45d9...

2) .. not clear whether aircraft wd carry nukes
3) Pursue deeper cooperation with EU partners
4) FR retains full autonomy over decision-making (aka when to deploy weapons). 2/3

Good piece in FT detailing Macron's speech on French nuclear deterrence. Confirms that FR will:
1) Increase arsenal (without providing exact numbers as per FR doctrine)
2) For 1st time, talks of deploying strategic assets abroad (but as @hfayet.bsky.social notes: priority is on aircraft...) 1/3

Trump has a foreign policy textbook. Attacking while regime is weak is definitely a classic.

Possibly. Or this was always a US-Israel (or US nudge for Israel to join) attack.

And yet, no-one should be surprised. Strike when the regime is at its weakest is definitely textbook Trump.

I don’t either, but pride etc. Not sure they’d just hunker down…

If Iran hits US military infrastructure, I think that wd provide military justification for counter-attack. Remember Israel is attacking Iran right now. Whether it has US support/nudge is unclear, but not impossible.

Unless your calculation is that Iran is pretty weak & may choose to attack a US army base — which would then, of course, justify US intervention.

😅

Great thread of what a multi-speed Europe means in practice. It’s the key thing to come out of y’day’s informal EU summit on competitiveness: MS have given EU Commission the green light to explore different formats to move fwd on competitiveness& expect it to present a plan at March European Council

French trolling is just superb.

I say: "[Macron] has street cred, if you will, of being one of the first to call for Europe to play more of a role in its defense”. Yes, I did use the word street cred.

Sunglasses, and Stormy Times, Lift France’s Embattled Leader

France's influence in Europe has declined since Macron dissolved Assemblée Nationale in June 2024. Two exceptions stand out: Ukraine and now Greenland, where Paris has been key in forging a strong European response. My thoughts for @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/w...

UK and EU to renew talks on defence fund access Talks that are due to take place next month take on fresh urgency after the transatlantic rupture in Davos

And here we go again... this time on 2 February in London:

www.ft.com/content/2be6...