New paper in which I played a very small part. academic.oup.com/bioscience/a...

Just uploaded a preprint to osf.io entitled 'The Politics of Modelling'. Submitted as an entry to the forthcoming handbook of Ecological Macroeconomics, Open Book publisher.

osf.io/preprints/so...

AI is Destroying the University and Learning Itself Students use AI to write papers, professors use AI to grade them, degrees become meaningless, and tech companies make fortunes. Welcome to the death of higher education.

Worth reading for lots of reasons, but particularly because it closes with something I see in my work and travels speaking on writing and AI. Many, maybe most students do not want AI-mediated schooling or lives. We can offer them something better. www.currentaffairs.org/news/ai-is-d...

OK so it turns out if you tag everyone in a starter pack, Bluesky suspends your account. Now that I'm back, reposting for visibility!

The Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty community was quite active on Twitter for a time, but lost some steam in the transition to Bluesky. To get things going again, I made a Starter Pack of DMDU people and orgs. Suggestions for additions are welcome! #dmdu #dimdoo

go.bsky.app/KZCdVA2

I see this image is not displaying properly, here is an alternative:

A huge thank you to my co-authors Judith Verstegen @utrechtuniversity.bsky.social, George van Voorn @w-u-r.bsky.social, Sabin Roman from the Jozef Stefan Institute and Arend Ligtenberg @w-u-r.bsky.social for their work during this process.

On a side note, I started work on this topic during my PhD after getting funding from my graduate school @pe-rc.bsky.social at @w-u-r.bsky.social in late 2020. We first submitted the manuscript in July 2022. In other words, we spent more time in the publication process than on the actual research!

We hope this work paves the way towards a principled, measurable, and replicable science of scenario generation.

Evaluated using three distinct criteria for scenario sets (diversity, plausibility, and comprehensiveness), we find that our proposed approach performs equally to or better than the three existing approaches.

We compare our proposed method "scenario search" against three other scenario generation methods (clustering model outputs, generic archetypes, and scenario matrices) using Schelling's segregation model as a case study.

New paper! In sesmo.org/article/view..., we propose a new optimization-based approach for generating scenario sets from simulation models. These scenario sets are small collections of model runs representing the full diversity of the underlying model's full behavior space.

"This e-book introduces System Dynamics Modelling to novice modellers. It is specifically designed to support courses on simulation methods at the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management (TPM) at Delft University of Technology (TU Delft) in the Netherlands, including Systems Modelling 3 and Introduction to TPM Modelling. However, it can also be used by other institutions that follow a practice- oriented and skill-oriented approach to learning, while it also offers sufficient theoretical information to support autonomous learning. We choose to publish the e-book under an open access license so that SD learners from all over the world can study the material, independent of their study programmes or university access."

This is a useful guide to System Dynamics modelling - Open Access

Auping, W. L., d'Hont, F. M., Kubli, M. D., Slinger, J. H., Steinmann, P., van der Heijde, F. T., Daalen, C. V., Pruyt, E., & Thissen, W. A. H. (2024). The delft method for system dynamics [Book]. TU Delft. doi.org/10.59490/tb.97

Data visualization is challenging, especially when moving from exploratory purposes (i.e., to discover or understand the data) to explanatory purposes (i.e., communication with others).
In a paper led by @hadjimichael.bsky.social we discuss different visuals iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...