Suffering managed by people is an outrage. Suffering delivered by nature is a documentary.

The strongest argument against racing is a simple one — some things are just wrong regardless of outcomes. We took that seriously. Then we asked whether it survives contact with how nature actually works. Spoiler: it gets complicated

The data is more interesting than most people realise. US fatality rates have fallen 44% since 2009. The best regulated venues now operate inside the background mortality range for age-matched horses living ordinary lives. That's not nothing.

Nigel's Notebook Free horse racing tools — going bias, trainer heatmaps, pace maps, bet calculator and more.

Aintree is a fortnight away. The 'horse racing is barbaric' takes are being drafted as we speak. Before they land — here's a piece that actually engages with the ethics rather than shouting past them nigelsnotebook.com/articles/rac...

The former is doing his level best to ensure it's the latter, but history suggests it'll be the former that fades first. NATO has survived Korea, Vietnam, the Cold War, and a succession of difficult allies, one difficult President feels well within its tolerance limits.

My tissue pinpointed the 20/1 winner of the Irish Lincoln yesterday, and ignoring the O'Brien shorty that was no value at all you'd have had the 16/1 in the next as well

Nice to see the tissue beat the market in the first, 1-4 2nd and 3rd wrong order but I'll take that on the chin

Today's the day 🟩🟨🟥

Free full colour-coded race cards are live on Nigel's Notebook — tissue prices, trainer & jockey stats, Going Bias and more, all in one place.

Do your homework. Find the value: 👉 nigelsnotebook.com

Yes, the groundstaff will be deploying their GPS-guided microdroplet drone swarm to hydrate only the good patches while leaving the good to soft bits bone dry. Same technology NASA uses, apparently. Should have the going reading 'Good to soft in places, heavy where the drones got confused'

Mighty Park is a good example of a data tissue limitation.

Lack of form data means the model underweights him. That probability doesn't vanish — it spreads across the field and makes everything else look artificially attractive.

Always sanity check the obvious horse first.

Nigel's Notebook Free horse racing tools — going bias, trainer heatmaps, pace maps, bet calculator and more.

Hello Bluesky 👋
I'm Chris — lifelong racing fan who got obsessed with the data side of things. I built Nigel's Notebook — free tools for UK/Irish racing: value assessment, going bias, trainer & jockey stats etc.

Named after a good friend who loved the sport. 🏇