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Posts by Javier Enrique Aguilar

More details about the Bayesian Workflow book and case studies now available on the book web site avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... (but you still need to wait a bit for the book)

2 weeks ago 98 28 2 0
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Oh nothing, just a peer reviewed paper my colleagues found...
doi.org/10.1016/j.ma...
"1 mL of the mass killing of an ethnic group was opposed to 20 mL of the skin sample and unprotected to light for 7 min."

Even AI knows what's wrong here, but @elsevierconnect.bsky.social doesn't.

4 weeks ago 206 83 15 29

you’ll get a discount at museums :)

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
Nutpie: state-of-the-art mass matrix adaptation for HMC | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Nutpie: state-of-the-art mass matrix adaptation for HMC
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/20/n...

1 month ago 18 6 0 0

Congratulations!

1 month ago 1 0 0 0

We shall cite you so no forgetting you.

1 month ago 1 2 1 0
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From the math community on Reddit: The Man Who Stole Infinity | Quanta Magazine - Joseph Howlett | In an 1874 paper, Georg Cantor proved that there are different sizes of infinity and changed math for... Explore this post and more from the math community

Corresponding post in the math subreddit

www.reddit.com/r/math/s/64h...

1 month ago 1 0 0 0

Congratulations and all the best! Enjoy :)

2 months ago 1 0 1 0
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Me: surely at least the statistics literature has its house in order.

The stats literature:

3 months ago 55 12 4 1
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We've been lucky to host a number of excellent speakers at the Online Monte Carlo Seminar this past term; please do visit the YouTube channel (www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...) to catch up on these interesting recent developments!

(and we'll be back again from January!)

4 months ago 17 7 0 1
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The Biggest Breakthroughs in Mathematics: 2025
The Biggest Breakthroughs in Mathematics: 2025 YouTube video by Quanta Magazine

It was a big year for mathematics. youtu.be/hRpcWpAeWng

4 months ago 47 18 0 2

has anyone made it to the top of maslow's pyramid i have a question

4 months ago 75 9 13 0

rejection wrapped?

4 months ago 47 1 3 1
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"On this day, 29 November, in 1873 Georg Cantor wrote a letter to Richard Dedekind. It contained a question that inaugurated a new mathematical discipline: Set Theory."

hartkp.weblog.tudelft.nl/2017/11/29/o...

4 months ago 8 1 2 0
Effective sample size | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

While I was busy, @joachim.cidlab.com and @janhove.bsky.social already provided valid short answers. I wrote a bit more at statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/27/e...

4 months ago 11 2 2 0

old google scholar: stand on the shoulders of giants

ai google scholar: or plagiarize them lol

4 months ago 50 5 1 0
PubPeer - Prevention of acute myocardial infarction induced heart fail... There are comments on PubPeer for publication: Prevention of acute myocardial infarction induced heart failure by intracoronary infusion of mesenchymal stem cells: phase 3 randomised clinical trial (P...

This is one of the most remarkable academic debacles I've ever seen.

A large RCT got published in BMJ. There are currently 44 Pubpeer comments, mostly about the data, including...well. Read for yourself.
pubpeer.com/publications...

5 months ago 137 44 13 15

A

5 months ago 1 0 0 0
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Dear All,

I am delighted to report to you the first results of an experiment that is being conducted in the tea room of this Department.

On 29 August, an Oslo Stainless Steel Cutlery Set (48 Pieces: 12 Knifes, 12 Forks, 12 Tea Spoons, 12 Dinner Spoons) was placed in a drawer in the Departmental tea room. A poster asking not to remove the cutlery from the tea room was attached in a visible location.

The original research plan was to monitor (in real time) the disappearance of the cutlery from the tea room and then fit a point/counting process model to the observed data. However, as the research project failed to attract any major grants (and so hiring a research assistant to do the work was impossible), it was decided to conduct opportunistic discrete monitoring only.

Here is the first result: sixty days in the experiment, the disappearance rates stand as follows:

Knives: 8.3%
Forks: 100%
Tea spoons: 58.3%
Dinner spoons: 41.7%

Possible conclusions include, but are not limited to, the following:

the people who removed the missing cutlery don’t understand written English; they don’t see forks as a special case of cutlery; forks are needed to do some kind of mathematics; the knives from the set are no good; small spoons are slightly more attractive than the large ones; things left in our tea room tend to disappear even if they are not edible; further research is needed to fully understand the phenomenon. 

Best,
kostya borovkov

Dear All, I am delighted to report to you the first results of an experiment that is being conducted in the tea room of this Department. On 29 August, an Oslo Stainless Steel Cutlery Set (48 Pieces: 12 Knifes, 12 Forks, 12 Tea Spoons, 12 Dinner Spoons) was placed in a drawer in the Departmental tea room. A poster asking not to remove the cutlery from the tea room was attached in a visible location. The original research plan was to monitor (in real time) the disappearance of the cutlery from the tea room and then fit a point/counting process model to the observed data. However, as the research project failed to attract any major grants (and so hiring a research assistant to do the work was impossible), it was decided to conduct opportunistic discrete monitoring only. Here is the first result: sixty days in the experiment, the disappearance rates stand as follows: Knives: 8.3% Forks: 100% Tea spoons: 58.3% Dinner spoons: 41.7% Possible conclusions include, but are not limited to, the following: the people who removed the missing cutlery don’t understand written English; they don’t see forks as a special case of cutlery; forks are needed to do some kind of mathematics; the knives from the set are no good; small spoons are slightly more attractive than the large ones; things left in our tea room tend to disappear even if they are not edible; further research is needed to fully understand the phenomenon. Best, kostya borovkov

happy 11th anniversary to this email sent to all staff at the School of Mathematics and Statistics

5 months ago 150 33 11 0
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Johann-Friedrich Salzmann Academic Website, Portfolio, and Contact Information

I'm looking for a PhD position (PolSci / Sociology / Data Science) starting this autumn or winter: jfsalzmann.com

# Bayesian Modelling, Electoral Behaviour, Opinion Dynamics

I'm a Berlin-based recent graduate in Data Science, Public Policy from the Hertie School.

1/6

6 months ago 6 3 1 0
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Forbidden Sidon subsets of perfect difference sets, featuring a human-assisted proof We resolve a $1000 Erdős prize problem, complete with formal verification generated by a large language model. In over a dozen papers, beginning in 1976 and spanning two decades, Paul Erdős repeated...

This paper is a delight along multiple axes. It describes an Erdős problem that was solved 30 years before Erdős declared it open. arxiv.org/abs/2510.19804

5 months ago 18 2 2 2

Thought of the day: It is somewhat mysterious why Gaussians remain stable under the particle-minimizing flow (i.e. the Wasserstein gradient flow) for so many widely used energies: entropy, Fisher information, quadratic interaction potentials, functionals depending only on mean and covariance,

6 months ago 18 2 1 0

Do terminal-embedded LLMs have pipe dreams

6 months ago 7 1 1 0
"Fig 1. The causal structure of Banana"

(Apparently your favourite mid-morning snack is a mediation problem)

"Fig 1. The causal structure of Banana" (Apparently your favourite mid-morning snack is a mediation problem)

A palate cleanser: 'The causal structure of banana'. Robust, simply structured, and convenient. 8/10. The DAG is nice too.

This is the first of three bananadags in Hitchcock (2016) "Conditioning, intervening, and decision".

6 months ago 31 7 2 0
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sensational energy here

6 months ago 52 7 1 0

Last year, I had a paper rejected after 18 months with the @amjepi.bsky.social.

It's the first time I've had a paper rejected after being invited for revisions. And the first time I've had a paper sent out to completely new reviewers.

It stung so hard that it's taken me a year to look at again.

6 months ago 74 19 12 0
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35 years ago, on October 3, 1990, Germany was reunified. Just two months later, voters in the former GDR went to the polls in the first free federal election since the Weimar era. Despite decades of socialist dictatorship, East German voting behavior displayed marked regional differences. Thread🧵

6 months ago 102 31 2 4
Bayesian Data Analysis course

My Bayesian Data Analysis course at Aalto is starting in 20mins. There are now 375 registered students, but as the course is not compulsory for most, I expect about 230 students to finish it. All the course material is available online at avehtari.github.io/BDA_course_A...

7 months ago 72 13 1 3
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A mouse wwaring a wizzard hat and holding a stick with the text "you must learn to proceed without certainty".

A mouse wwaring a wizzard hat and holding a stick with the text "you must learn to proceed without certainty".

@rmcelreath.bsky.social be like

6 months ago 78 14 2 1

hey @lunafazio.bsky.social welcome :)

7 months ago 1 0 0 0