More details about the Bayesian Workflow book and case studies now available on the book web site avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... (but you still need to wait a bit for the book)
Posts by Javier Enrique Aguilar
Oh nothing, just a peer reviewed paper my colleagues found...
doi.org/10.1016/j.ma...
"1 mL of the mass killing of an ethnic group was opposed to 20 mL of the skin sample and unprotected to light for 7 min."
Even AI knows what's wrong here, but @elsevierconnect.bsky.social doesn't.
you’ll get a discount at museums :)
Nutpie: state-of-the-art mass matrix adaptation for HMC
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/20/n...
Congratulations!
We shall cite you so no forgetting you.
Congratulations and all the best! Enjoy :)
Me: surely at least the statistics literature has its house in order.
The stats literature:
We've been lucky to host a number of excellent speakers at the Online Monte Carlo Seminar this past term; please do visit the YouTube channel (www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...) to catch up on these interesting recent developments!
(and we'll be back again from January!)
It was a big year for mathematics. youtu.be/hRpcWpAeWng
has anyone made it to the top of maslow's pyramid i have a question
rejection wrapped?
"On this day, 29 November, in 1873 Georg Cantor wrote a letter to Richard Dedekind. It contained a question that inaugurated a new mathematical discipline: Set Theory."
hartkp.weblog.tudelft.nl/2017/11/29/o...
While I was busy, @joachim.cidlab.com and @janhove.bsky.social already provided valid short answers. I wrote a bit more at statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/27/e...
old google scholar: stand on the shoulders of giants
ai google scholar: or plagiarize them lol
This is one of the most remarkable academic debacles I've ever seen.
A large RCT got published in BMJ. There are currently 44 Pubpeer comments, mostly about the data, including...well. Read for yourself.
pubpeer.com/publications...
A
Dear All, I am delighted to report to you the first results of an experiment that is being conducted in the tea room of this Department. On 29 August, an Oslo Stainless Steel Cutlery Set (48 Pieces: 12 Knifes, 12 Forks, 12 Tea Spoons, 12 Dinner Spoons) was placed in a drawer in the Departmental tea room. A poster asking not to remove the cutlery from the tea room was attached in a visible location. The original research plan was to monitor (in real time) the disappearance of the cutlery from the tea room and then fit a point/counting process model to the observed data. However, as the research project failed to attract any major grants (and so hiring a research assistant to do the work was impossible), it was decided to conduct opportunistic discrete monitoring only. Here is the first result: sixty days in the experiment, the disappearance rates stand as follows: Knives: 8.3% Forks: 100% Tea spoons: 58.3% Dinner spoons: 41.7% Possible conclusions include, but are not limited to, the following: the people who removed the missing cutlery don’t understand written English; they don’t see forks as a special case of cutlery; forks are needed to do some kind of mathematics; the knives from the set are no good; small spoons are slightly more attractive than the large ones; things left in our tea room tend to disappear even if they are not edible; further research is needed to fully understand the phenomenon. Best, kostya borovkov
happy 11th anniversary to this email sent to all staff at the School of Mathematics and Statistics
I'm looking for a PhD position (PolSci / Sociology / Data Science) starting this autumn or winter: jfsalzmann.com
# Bayesian Modelling, Electoral Behaviour, Opinion Dynamics
I'm a Berlin-based recent graduate in Data Science, Public Policy from the Hertie School.
1/6
This paper is a delight along multiple axes. It describes an Erdős problem that was solved 30 years before Erdős declared it open. arxiv.org/abs/2510.19804
Thought of the day: It is somewhat mysterious why Gaussians remain stable under the particle-minimizing flow (i.e. the Wasserstein gradient flow) for so many widely used energies: entropy, Fisher information, quadratic interaction potentials, functionals depending only on mean and covariance,
Do terminal-embedded LLMs have pipe dreams
"Fig 1. The causal structure of Banana" (Apparently your favourite mid-morning snack is a mediation problem)
A palate cleanser: 'The causal structure of banana'. Robust, simply structured, and convenient. 8/10. The DAG is nice too.
This is the first of three bananadags in Hitchcock (2016) "Conditioning, intervening, and decision".
sensational energy here
Last year, I had a paper rejected after 18 months with the @amjepi.bsky.social.
It's the first time I've had a paper rejected after being invited for revisions. And the first time I've had a paper sent out to completely new reviewers.
It stung so hard that it's taken me a year to look at again.
35 years ago, on October 3, 1990, Germany was reunified. Just two months later, voters in the former GDR went to the polls in the first free federal election since the Weimar era. Despite decades of socialist dictatorship, East German voting behavior displayed marked regional differences. Thread🧵
My Bayesian Data Analysis course at Aalto is starting in 20mins. There are now 375 registered students, but as the course is not compulsory for most, I expect about 230 students to finish it. All the course material is available online at avehtari.github.io/BDA_course_A...
A mouse wwaring a wizzard hat and holding a stick with the text "you must learn to proceed without certainty".
@rmcelreath.bsky.social be like
hey @lunafazio.bsky.social welcome :)