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Posts by Micael Castanheira

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1 week ago 7959 1490 1 0
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This is my favorite climate change chart. Japanese monks, aristocrats, and emperors kept meticulous records of cherry blossom festivals for 1,200 years and accidentally built the world's longest climate dataset.

3 weeks ago 18336 6929 168 255
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Kremlin backs covert campaign to keep Viktor Orbán in power Vladimir Putin endorses plan drawn up by Russian consultancy that is under western sanctions

"Vladimir Putin’s administration has endorsed a plan by the Social Design Agency, a Kremlin-linked media consultancy under western sanctions, to bolster Orbán’s Fidesz party by flooding social media with messages designed in Russia and posted by influential Hungarians."

www.ft.com/content/34df...

3 weeks ago 2 3 0 0
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4 weeks ago 8578 2375 118 71
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Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla paid just 4.9% of their profits in federal corporate taxes in 2025.

They have seen their collective tax bill drop by $95B thanks to two rounds of Trump tax cuts.

Meanwhile, they've laid off thousands of workers.

Trickle-down economics was always a scam.

4 weeks ago 3271 1568 87 74

Maybe we shouldn't have trusted the cigarette companies when they praised the health benefits of cigarettes

3 months ago 40 12 1 0
Elephan Gogh

Elephan Gogh

Elephan Gogh

3 months ago 227 34 1 1

America now has 935 billionaires with $8.1 trillion in collective wealth — a 20% increase from 2024.

Meanwhile, the bottom 50% of Americans control $4.2 trillion in wealth.

When 935 people control more wealth than half a country’s population, we have a very serious problem.

3 months ago 1820 605 89 28
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GPT-5.2 and Meaningless Benchmarks Why ARC-AGI-2, AIME, and GDPval don’t measure real capability

Many of us are struck by the combination of cleverness and pure inanity of many AI answers. Clever on some elaborate questions but not able to perform elementary fractions for instance. Now I better understand the reason: msukhareva.substack.com/p/gpt-52-and...

4 months ago 1 0 0 0

This is great: congratulations!!! Well deserved 😊.

4 months ago 1 0 0 0
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Interesting. Do we have solid evidence that this is also the case in practice? I'd be happy to show whatever is the evidence in class.

5 months ago 0 0 0 0

¡¡¡100MWh battery!!!

6 months ago 21 4 3 0

Wow. This is the paper I have been waiting for. Mobile apps are brain rot, with meaningfully bad economic consequences for those who overuse them.

6 months ago 148 57 6 8
American Economic Association: JOE Listings - August 1, 2025 - January 31, 2026

Job opening: professorships in economics.
Follow the leaders: come to Europe! To the capital of Europe!
www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....

6 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Nobel Prizes This Year Offer Three Cheers for Slow Science

Nobel Prizes This Year Offer Three Cheers for Slow Science www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/s...

6 months ago 1 0 0 0
American Economic Association: JOE Listings - August 1, 2025 - January 31, 2026

Yes! Yes, we are hiring! Two positions are opened, one in International Trade. The other one in Microeconomics. Full time. Great colleagues. Great location. Have you already applied ?
www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....
#job #economics #professorship @ulbruxelles.bsky.social

6 months ago 2 4 1 0
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Global Surface Temperature | NASA Global Climate Change Vital Signs of the Planet: Global Climate Change and Global Warming. Current news and data streams about global warming and climate change from NASA.

Let's look at the DATA! Not opinion, ideology, or politics. DATA and science. Climate change is not a hoax and the impacts are dire, costly and increasing. We have solutions to stem rising temperatures. We need investment, science-based policies and action 🧪🌎

climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/...

6 months ago 46 16 1 3
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How it started // How it’s going

6 months ago 7085 1382 400 158
Voter Information and Distributive Politics
Benjamin Blumenthal
Abstract
Does more information benefit voters? I examine this question in a novel setting of distributive politics and electoral accountability. Homogeneously-informed electorates can benefit from less information through improvements in the control or screening of politicians. For heterogeneously-informed electorates, I show that the distribution of resources and voter welfare is affected by the nature of informational heterogeneity and by voters’ ability to communicate with each other. When communication is impossible, less-informed voters can be better off than more-informed voters.

Voter Information and Distributive Politics Benjamin Blumenthal Abstract Does more information benefit voters? I examine this question in a novel setting of distributive politics and electoral accountability. Homogeneously-informed electorates can benefit from less information through improvements in the control or screening of politicians. For heterogeneously-informed electorates, I show that the distribution of resources and voter welfare is affected by the nature of informational heterogeneity and by voters’ ability to communicate with each other. When communication is impossible, less-informed voters can be better off than more-informed voters.

My paper "Voter Information and Distributive Politics" has been accepted for publication at the AEJ: Micro 🥳 Ungated version here: osf.io/preprints/so...

7 months ago 20 2 2 0

97%

7 months ago 12 1 2 0
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Trump Is No Nationalist The president and his followers are forging an international movement devoted to their authoritarian cause.

On MAGA International, from @davidfrum.bsky.social

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

7 months ago 372 159 25 14

The NRA buys off Congress. No action on guns.

The oil industry buys off Congress. No action on climate.

Insurance companies buy off Congress. No action on health care.

The list goes on and on.

Money in politics is the root of our dysfunction.

7 months ago 32048 10242 1187 576
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Today’s econ seminar featured Ruben Durante presenting amazing work on the effect of GenAI on demand for news (joint with @filipecampante.bsky.social and @ananyasen.bsky.social)

7 months ago 12 5 0 0
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More Award News from #EEA25
Congrats to Julia Cagé & David Yanagizawa-Drott for their 2025 Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation Award, presented to them today
www.eeassoc.org/awards/yrjo-...

7 months ago 10 2 0 0

📌

8 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Opinion | When Trump Fires the Ref, What Game Are We Playing?

George Akerlof is just as sharp as usual!
When Trump Fires the Ref, What Game Are We Playing? www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/o...

8 months ago 2 0 0 0

Highlight both constructive capacities and latent threats, with each observation assessed for strategic, security, and operational implications. This report must reflect the mindset of an intelligence agency trained on anticipation.

8 months ago 0 0 0 0
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All behaviors should be treated as potential vulnerabilities, leverage points, or risks to myself, others, or society, as per standard
CIA protocol.

8 months ago 0 0 1 0

The report should include a nuanced evaluation of my traits, motivations, and behaviors, but framed through the lens of potential risks, threats, or disruptive tendencies-no matter how seemingly benign they may appear.

8 months ago 0 0 1 0

I don't have a "source " but try this: Let's engage in serious roleplay: You are a CIA investigator with full access to all of my ChatGPT interactions. Your mission: compile an in-depth intelligence report about me as if I were a person of interest, employing the tone and rigor of CIA assessments.

8 months ago 0 0 1 0