I think this is probably true, and partly explains why NZF is polling well. People who still want change, but don't believe either Labour or National can give it to them might see NZF as the "change" option.
Impressive that NZF can be seen as a "change" option while being part of the coalition!
Just published!
Writing with the amazing @sarahhbickerton.bsky.social we unpack online misogyny in NZ, what laws look like right now and set out our vision for online safety regulations that support women's human rights.
Was wonderful working with Sarah on this piece!
This heavy use of urgency — shortcuts in the parliamentary process — is cheating democracy. And ministers know it too.
It's definitely not all the current government - Newsroom has stats showing the previous parliamentary term also had very high use of urgency. It does seem to have accelerated under this coalition however (and it's not just about urgency).
Thanks! An update would be very interesting
Thanks. It would be really interesting to collect stats going back as far as possible and doing some analysis on how much urgency was used by different govts, and what it was used for.
At the Forum on Democratic Resilience & Transparency last month I explained that #OIA laws were often the product of crises of public confidence in governance. Muldoon’s Think Big led to the OIA, but this govt is working to weaken the OIA when we’re already in another dangerous governance situation.
That would definitely be interesting - I have at least one follow up planned, but there could be more.
And I should have credited you for prompting me to write this post!
NZ isn't experiencing the rapid backsliding seen in the US. But the data suggests the current government makes decisions with less consultation, narrower justification.
Full analysis: threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/new-zea... (5/5)
#nzpol
Line chart of five deliberative democracy sub-components for New Zealand from 2010 to 2025. Since the current government took office in late 2023 (shaded region), Common good justification fell from 3.5 to 2.3, Respect for counterarguments fell from 2.5 to 1.6, Reasoned justification and Consultation also declined. Engaged society was the exception, rising above 4.0.
That score has fallen to NZ's lowest since around the 1980s, with the biggest single-year drop in 2025. Consultation, common-good justification, and respect for counterarguments have all declined since the current government took office.
(4/5)
But the Deliberative Democracy Index is different. It measures how decisions get made - consultation, justification, respect for counterarguments. NZ scores 0.64, ranked 37th. Australia scores 0.77. We're near the bottom of our peer group.
(3/5)
Horizontal lollipop chart showing Liberal Democracy Index scores for 18 peer countries in 2025. Denmark ranks first at 0.88, with Sweden, Norway, and Switzerland close behind. New Zealand ranks 14th at 0.79, level with Australia (12th) and above the UK (30th, 0.69) and USA (51st, 0.57). NZ, Australia, UK, and USA are highlighted in colour.
The Liberal Democracy Index - elections, civil liberties, rule of law - puts NZ at 0.79, roughly level with Australia. We trail the Scandinavians but sit well ahead of the UK (0.69) and US (0.57). On this measure, NZ looks in reasonable shape.
(2/5)
Horizontal lollipop chart showing Deliberative Democracy Index scores for 18 peer countries in 2025. Denmark ranks first at 0.87. New Zealand ranks 37th at 0.64, near the bottom of the group and below Australia (12th, 0.77), the UK (31st, 0.67), and most other comparable democracies. The USA ranks 58th at 0.48. NZ, Australia, UK, and USA are highlighted in colour.
NZ ranks 14th globally for liberal democracy. But 37th for deliberative democracy - how decisions get made and explained. And that ranking has been falling.
I dug into the latest data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project. Short 🧵 (1/5)
#nzpol
If the govt is trying to avoid the appearance of doing too much, they're doing a fantastic job!
The claim "the fact that the incumbent party was successfully defeated in an election shows that there was never anything to worry about and democracy was fine all along" in the Hungarian case— with explicit or implicit analogy to the US— is maddening to begin with, bc it's a well-known fact
1/
"...if the coercive campaign drags on, U.S. hawks may underestimate Iran’s staying power. From all indications, Tehran has options, and the capacity to cause renewed global economic dislocation." goodauthority.org/news/yes-ira...
It's called a parliamentary system.
"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."
(I also tend to find anyone making highly confident predictions are more often wrong than right. Bonus points for telling us your claims are "indisputable").
A lot of Orbán's American fans are saying that this election proved he was never an authoritarian in the first place.
This is completely wrong — and, in fact, betrays a complete misunderstanding of both Hungarian politics and modern authoritarianism.
Here's why.
In competitive authoritarianism, leaders abuse state power to tilt the electoral playing field in their favor, manipulate the media environment and minimize opposition voices, maybe even steal close elections by lying about fraud. But they usually can't overcome a large majority voting against them.
Tyranny requires constant effort. It breaks, it leaks. Authority is brittle. Oppression is the mask of fear. Remember that.
The fossil fuel crisis is getting worse because we already burned too much fossil fuel which causes extreme weather, meaning the boats bringing us fossil fuel can't get to us and deliver more fossil fuel for us to burn.
Is this really where we are? #nzpol #climatechange
Just recorded a great pod, and I gotta say ... solar and batteries are going to win. They are the main dish. Everything else is a side dish. In 10 years, you won't be able to find anyone who disagrees with this.
Even if it is somehow resolved, we're just waiting around for the next Trump-induced crisis. For the next ~3 years. (And maybe longer).
I guess the implication is that if US/Israel don't hold up their end of the bargain, the Strait of Hormuz could be closed again.
ICYMI: Cost of living could be the key battleground issue in 2026.
My analysis on the difference between "the economy" and "cost of living" as issues:
threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/nz-elec...
#nzpol
Starmer, Albanese, and Luxon: Three PMs, and three different captures of the Middle-East war
www.linkedin.com/pulse/starme... (LinkedIn)
sanjanah.wordpress.com/2026/04/02/s... (WordPress)
#nzpol
Cost of living has since overtaken the economy as NZ's top issue (according to Ipsos). Healthcare is second, the economy third. In 2023, no party owned cost of living — making it a key battleground for 2026.
Full analysis: threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/nz-elec... (4/4)
#nzpol #election2026
Average party feeling score (0–10) for Labour and National by most important issue, 2023 NZES. Economy voters: National 7, Labour 4. Cost of living voters: Labour 5.5, National 5.1 — nearly equal. Health voters: Labour 6.2, National 4.9.
How much voters liked each party (rated 0–10) reinforces the divide. Economy voters: National 7/10, Labour 4/10. But among cost of living voters — focused on household bills — Labour (5.5) and National (5.1) were nearly level. No party owned the issue. (3/4)
Which party voters thought best to handle their most important issue, 2023 NZES. For economy voters, National dominated at 78.8%. For cost of living voters, responses were fragmented: National 37.5%, Labour 23.6%, no party 15.2%. Health voters favoured Labour at 37%, with National at 25.1%.
The distinction shows up in party preferences. National dominated among economy voters: 78.8% said they were best placed to handle it. But cost of living voters — focused on household bills — were fragmented: National 37.5%, Labour 23.6%, no party 15.2%. (2/4)