How Iran’s ‘forward defence’ became a strategic boomerang Tehran’s decades-long cultivation of the ‘axis of resistance’ led to the war with US and Israel that it long sought to avoid – whatever the outcome, the regime is weakened, writes Sanam Vakil.

Have US-Israeli strikes dealt a final blow to the Iranian regime?

However this war ends, it will leave Iran weaker and less able to exert regional influence, writes Sanam Vakil (of @chmenap.bsky.social): www.chathamhouse.org/publications...

"I do not think this is the end of hostilities. The strikes will continue, it's just that there is a cease and desist for five days on energy infrastructure."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on Donald Trump's decision to delay strikes against Iran's power plants, via BBC News ⤵️

Kurdish groups in Iran face risky dilemma amid unclear US endgame The Trump administration has given mixed messages about its support for a potential Kurdish uprising, which would face a range of challenges against an uncertain backdrop.

NEW from me for @chmenap.bsky.social: The US does not have a settled and coherent strategy for its newest war. Trump has gone back and forth over whether to support the Iranian Kurds, who must balance their own long-term interests with this moment of opportunity.
www.chathamhouse.org/2026/03/kurd...

US–Israel strikes on Iran: What next for the Middle East? YouTube video by Chatham House

🎥 Watch the recording of our 5 March webinar: 'US–Israel strikes on Iran: What next for the Middle East?'

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLea...

Will the US-Israel war on Iran destabilise Iraq? This webinar will examine how cross-border movements and fragile political structures raise the stakes for Iraq’s stability.

'Will the US-Israel war on Iran destabilise Iraq?'

This #IraqInitiative webinar will examine how cross-border movements and fragile political structures raise the stakes for Iraq’s stability.

📅 12 March
🕐 13.00 GMT
📍 Zoom
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...

US–Israel war on Iran: What’s happening inside Iran? In this webinar, speakers will assess the Iranian regime’s response to date and explore potential social, political, military and security trajectories for the country.

'US–Israel war on Iran: What’s happening inside Iran?'

Speakers will assess the Iranian regime’s response to date and explore potential social, political, military and security trajectories for the country.

📅 11 March
🕐 11.30 GMT
📍 Zoom
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...

📢 Upcoming events

The MENA Programme’s coverage of the ongoing US–Israel war on Iran continues.

In our upcoming webinars, experts unpack the conflict’s implications for Iran and Iraq. 🧵

“The sad reality is they will have broken Iran and then will leave in place hardline remnants of an old regime that will be equally brutal, but economically strangled."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the consequences for Iran from the US-Israeli military campaign, via BBC Radio 4.

"President Trump presented this as a historic generational opportunity but it's actually looking like a historic generational disaster."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) joined the BBC's Jeremy Bowen to discuss the impact of the US-Israel military strikes on the people of Iran, via BBC News.

“Over the course of just 48 hours, Iran has struck out across the Middle East and violated the sovereignty of many of its neighbours.”

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on Iran’s military response to the US-Israeli strikes, via @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social.

Iran may yet endure this war, but the Islamic Republic as we have known it cannot survive unchanged | Sanam Vakil The regime may now have to meet Trump’s demands merely to save itself. And he needs a coherent plan to deal with what he has unleashed, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House

For the Islamic Republic, the priority is survival. Iran is not fighting to win in conventional terms, but the regime is fighting to endure.

Read Sanam Vakil’s (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis on the US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, via @theguardian.com.

US–Israel strikes on Iran: What next for the Middle East? The US and Israel launched strikes on Iran with the stated aim of regime change. Speakers in this online-only webinar will examine how the military escalation is likely to play out, and the potential ...

📢 New event | US–Israel strikes on Iran: What next for the Middle East?

H. A. Hellyer, Mara Karlin, Vali Nasr, Bader Al-Saif and Sanam Vakil examine how the military escalation is likely to play out, and the potential consequences.

📅 5 March
🕐 11.30 GMT
📍 Zoom
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...

Can Libya escape the cycle of conflict? YouTube video by Chatham House

📺Can Libya escape the cycle of conflict?

'The state doesn't really have a handle over its own spending'.

Tim Eaton discusses his new research paper with Farea Al-Muslimi

➡️Read the full report: chathamhouse.org/2025/12/esca...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7I6...

Why are Middle Eastern governments lobbying against a US attack on Iran? Threat perceptions have changed. Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt all wish to avoid a war that would bring even more upheaval to the region.

'For Middle Eastern leaders, the threats have changed: the greatest risks are now an expansionist and aggressive Israel, and the chaos of a potentially collapsed Iranian state', writes
@galipdalay.bsky.social

Read the latest Expert Comment ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/2026/02/why-...

The risks of Trump’s peace plan: Two Gazas and an annexed West Bank Trump’s plan could doom aspirations for a unified Palestinian state. European and Arab states should pressure Washington before it’s too late.

Trump’s plan could doom aspirations for a unified Palestinian state. If Arab and European states do not act, they risk letting Palestine become transformed into the Israeli right’s dream, writes Neil Quilliam.

Read the new Expert Comment ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/2026/02/risk...

Yemen’s enduring war: What will it take to bring peace? (English) YouTube video by Chatham House

🎥 Event recording: 'Yemen’s enduring war: What will it take to bring peace?'

Tawakkol Karman reflects on the legacy of Yemen’s 2011 revolution.

Watch the recording below.
English ➡️ www.youtube.com/live/Gd583QG...
Arabic ➡️ www.youtube.com/live/ZEFeeMz...

Yemen’s enduring war: What will it take to bring peace? Tawakkol Karman, a Yemeni activist, journalist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, reflects on the legacy of Yemen’s 2011 revolution, why the country continues to be plagued by violence, and what its futu...

📢 Starting at 16.00 GMT: 'Yemen’s enduring war: What will it take to bring peace?'

Tawakkol Karman reflects on the legacy of Yemen’s 2011 revolution & how ongoing developments are reshaping society, with Farea Al-Muslimi.

Register now to watch the livesteam ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...

What recent developments in Syria mean for the Kurds Kurdish forces suffered a major setback as the Damascus government seized northeast Syria and cemented its partnership with Washington — yet Kurdish cross-border solidarity has been renewed.

As Damascus and its backers move to remake Syria in their preferred image, the Kurds will face major challenges in maintaining the compromises they have managed to salvage, writes @wrodgers2.bsky.social.

www.chathamhouse.org/2026/02/what...

What Nouri al-Maliki’s prime minister bid tells us about Iraq The surprise return of the controversial former leader has revealed that Iraq is still a US–Iran battleground.

The surprise return of the Iraq's controversial former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki reveals Iraq remains a battleground for the US and Iran.

Read @renadmansour.bsky.social's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis on Iraq's domestic politics⤵️

Iran’s Divided Opposition Only a unified movement can threaten the regime.

Iran’s opposition groups must learn to work together, otherwise the Islamic Republic will persist. Not because it commands popular support — but because there is no alternative.

Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis with @alexvatanka.bsky.social via @foreignaffairs.com ⤵️

Hady Amr Hady Amr is an Associate Fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Programme. He is also currently a nonresident senior fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution and ...

We are delighted to welcome Hady Amr to the MENA Programme!

As an Associate Fellow, Hady will contribute to our work on Israel and Palestine, the Levant, and US foreign policy in the MENA region.

www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/our...

What recent developments in Syria mean for the Kurds Kurdish forces suffered a major setback as the Damascus government seized northeast Syria and cemented its partnership with Washington — yet Kurdish cross-border solidarity has been renewed.

Kurdish forces suffered a major setback as the Damascus government seized northeast Syria and cemented its partnership with Washington — yet Kurdish cross-border solidarity has been renewed, writes @wrodgers2.bsky.social.

Read the new Expert Comment ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/2026/02/what...

Can diplomacy avert a US-Iran war? Islamic regime faces ‘a reckoning’

Podcast🎙️| Can diplomacy avert a US-Iran war?

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) joined @gideonrachman.bsky.social's podcast to discuss the risks of a US war with Iran and the crisis of legitimacy facing the Islamic Republic.

Listen via @financialtimes.com⤵️

What Nouri al-Maliki’s prime minister bid tells us about Iraq The surprise return of the controversial former leader has revealed that Iraq is still a US–Iran battleground.

The surprise return of Nouri al-Maliki as a prime-ministerial candidate has revealed that Iraq is still a US–Iran battleground, writes @renadmansour.bsky.social.

www.chathamhouse.org/2026/02/what...

How can Libya reconcile and reunify after 15 years of instability? HE Abdullah al-Lafi, Member of the Libyan Presidential Council—the three‑member body that serves as Libya’s head of state—will outline how international partners can support and engage with Libya to t...

📢 NEW EVENT: How can Libya reconcile & reunify after 15 years of instability?

Join in person or online for a discussion with HE Abdullah al-Lafi, Member of the Libyan Presidential Council.

📅 12/2
🕐 Noon GMT
📍 @chathamhouse.org

www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...

🎥 Event recording: 'Is the MENA region stabilizing or spiralling?'

@faisalalyafai.bsky.social, Galip Dalay, Tim Eaton, @renadmansour.bsky.social & Sanam Vakil discuss political, security & economic dynamics to watch in MENA in 2026.

Watch in full ⤵️
www.youtube.com/live/6viPAwN...

"This year will be the most consequential year for the Islamic Republic. There will either be transition from within or forced transition."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the major challenges facing the regime in Iran this year ⤵️

Trump’s objective is to force Iran into strategic submission The threat of force is still very much on the table – as the president seeks to use pressure and unpredictability to turn Iranian weakness into a durable shift that benefits the US.

Even though the White House pulled back from military action, the threat of force is still on the table. Trump's approach is to use pressure & unpredictability to turn Iranian weakness into a durable shift that benefits the US, writes Sanam Vakil.
www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/trum...

Trump’s Syria policy is at risk of unravelling Clashes between the Syrian government and the SDF and deadlocked talks with Israel threaten to drag Syria into renewed conflict. The EU should step in with a longer-term approach.

Clashes between the Syrian government and the SDF and deadlocked talks with Israel threaten to drag Syria into renewed conflict. The EU should step in with a longer-term approach, writes Neil Quilliam.
www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/trum...

Iran's protests: Will this time be different? Experts discuss the protests in Iran, the Islamic Republic’s response, and what might happen next.

📢 NEW WEBINAR | Iran's protests: Will this time be different?

Renad Mansour, Shayan Sardarizadeh, Nate Swanson, Sanam Vakil & Azadeh Zamirirad discuss the protests in Iran, the Islamic Republic’s response & what might happen next.

📅 19/1
🕐 15.00 GMT
Register ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...