After what feels like an eternity of data collection/simulations, my 2026 model is finally ready! Take a look at the headline results, as well as a detailed country by country forecast here:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/20461...
Introducing "The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey 2026"! I am once again launching a prediction survey to collect our collective wisdom and create the best possible forecast of the results! More than 100 respondents have already already sent in their predictions forms.gle/J6qeVDHi8e9ttt5j9
EUROVISION 2026 ALLOCATION DRAW CHEAT SHEET 📊 🇪🇺
Based on analysis of all voting between 2014 and 2025, this chart shows the average televoting/jury bias between each pair of countries. The left shows the country being voted on, and the top the country voting
EUROVISION 2026 ALLOCATION DRAW CHEAT SHEET 📊 🇪🇺
Based on analysis of all voting between 2014 and 2025, this chart shows the average televoting/jury bias between each pair of countries. The left shows the country being voted on, and the top the country voting
Working on my 2026 allocation draw cheat sheet, and there are some combinations of the 35 participants where one hasn’t ranked the other at least one time from 2014-2025. Obviously almost all involve with Luxembourg, but one doesn’t involve them. Can you guess the combination?
Currently the top 2 are TIED, with 3rd place only one point behind. Your votes an be decisive!
Last chance! Survey closes at 23:59 Central European Time tonight. This is a golden opportunity to showcase your Eurovision wisdom!
Last chance to send in your top 10 of entries from the 2015 national final season.
Survey closes 23:59 CET, with results being released soon after!
forms.gle/qhYCMCQNa7W4...
Last chance! Survey closes at 23:59 Central European Time tonight. This is a golden opportunity to showcase your Eurovision wisdom!
Introducing THE BIG EUROVISION PREDICTION SURVEY 2026 - PARTICIPANTS
With the 2025 season wrapped up it's time to look to 2026. Which countries will be taking part? With which artists? Send in your predictions now and prove your Eurovision wisdom for good! forms.gle/w9U9UDVZjXNb...
Bookmaker percentages via @eurovisionworld.com
Just compared the Qual. chances forecast by my April and May models with their contemporary odds, as well as the final odds. Turns out, while the May model outperformed the bookmakers the April model was even more accurate providing more accurate chances for EVERY SINGLE ENTRY than contemporary odds
How is running order impacting your #Eurovision favourite's chances? Due to recency bias televoters are more prone to vote for songs they saw the latest. In fact the difference between the songs performing 2nd and last is a full 15% of the rating scale. See my full estimates here
And that is all! Don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions about the results. And if you enjoyed reading, please consider giving me a follow for more data-driven analysis of the Eurovision Song Contest and the world surrounding it. Happy Eurovision week!
Take care!
Georgia 🇬🇪
Mariam Shengelia - Freedom
Tele-power: 7.148% (-0.433%)
Jury-power: 20.273% (+0.233%)
Winner chance: 0% (0%)
Top 3 chance: 0% (0%)
Top 5 chance: 0% (0%)
Top 10 chance: 0% (-0.001%)
Qualification chance: 0.667% (-0.917%)
Croatia 🇭🇷
Marko Bošnjak - Poison Cake
Tele-power: 22.226% (+3.504%)
Jury-power: 17.153% (+2.116%)
Winner chance: 0% (0%)
Top 3 chance: 0% (0%)
Top 5 chance: 0.002% (+0.002%)
Top 10 chance: 0.024% (+0.022%)
Qualification chance: 21.98% (+3.806%)
Azerbaijan 🇦🇿
Mamagama - Run with U
Tele-power: 16.585% (-4.197%)
Jury-power: 23.943% (-4.144%)
Winner chance: 0% (0%)
Top 3 chance: 0% (-0.001%)
Top 5 chance: 0% (-0.005%)
Top 10 chance: 0.018% (-0.072%)
Qualification chance: 5.475% (-6.82%)
Ireland 🇮🇪
Emmy - Laika Party
Tele-power: 33.759% (+2.652%)
Jury-power: 20.73% (+3.368%)
Winner chance: 0% (0%)
Top 3 chance: 0.005% (+0.004%)
Top 5 chance: 0.023% (-0.003%)
Top 10 chance: 0.378% (+0.099%)
Qualification chance: 35.101% (-1.573%)
Spain 🇪🇸
Melody - Esa diva
Tele-power: 27.518% (+1.74%)
Jury-power: 28.467% (+3.56%)
Winner chance: 0% (0%)
Top 3 chance: 0.002% (+0.001%)
Top 5 chance: 0.014% (-0.009%)
Top 10 chance: 0.341% (-0.013%)
Iceland 🇮🇸
Væb - Róa
Tele-power: 38.942% (+4.311%)
Jury-power: 18.358% (+2.915%)
Winner chance: 0.001% (+0.001%)
Top 3 chance: 0.024% (+0.012%)
Top 5 chance: 0.128% (+0.085%)
Top 10 chance: 1.263% (+0.679%)
Qualification chance: 44.998% (+3.072%)
Serbia 🇷🇸
Princ - Mila
Tele-power: 25.221% (+8.44%)
Jury-power: 35.368% (+8.72%)
Winner chance: 0.001% (+0.001%)
Top 3 chance: 0.015% (+0.013%)
Top 5 chance: 0.087% (+0.075%)
Top 10 chance: 0.848% (+0.556%)
Qualification chance: 46.732% (+11.362%)
San Marino 🇸🇲
Gabry Ponte - Tutta l'Italia
Tele-power: 37.336% (-10.875%)
Jury-power: 23.686% (-3.288%)
Winner chance: 0.002% (-0.016%)
Top 3 chance: 0.01% (-0.204%)
Top 5 chance: 0.041% (-0.755%)
Top 10 chance: 0.627% (-4.757%)
Qualification chance: 49.784% (-26.268%)
Armenia 🇦🇲
Parg - Survivor
Tele-power: 36.241% (+6.204%)
Jury-power: 26.715% (+2.767%)
Winner chance: 0% (0%)
Top 3 chance: 0.005% (+0.004%)
Top 5 chance: 0.04% (+0.024%)
Top 10 chance: 0.745% (+0.381%)
Qualification chance: 54.001% (+5.227%)
Montenegro 🇲🇪
Nina Žižić - Dobrodošli
Tele-power: 19.307% (-4.125%)
Jury-power: 45.876% (-1.449%)
Winner chance: 0% (-0.002%)
Top 3 chance: 0.011% (-0.034%)
Top 5 chance: 0.036% (-0.153%)
Top 10 chance: 0.321% (-1.035%)
Qualification chance: 4.549% (-6.819%)
Slovenia 🇸🇮
Klemen - How Much Time Do We Have Left
Tele-power: 27.19% (+10.986%)
Jury-power: 40.657% (+9.379%)
Winner chance: 0% (0%)
Top 3 chance: 0.024% (+0.024%)
Top 5 chance: 0.12% (+0.111%)
Top 10 chance: 0.86% (+0.767%)
Qualification chance: 18.383% (+11.594%)
Portugal 🇵🇹
Napa - Deslocado
Tele-power: 24.781% (-5.793%)
Jury-power: 43.467% (-4.625%)
Winner chance: 0.005% (-0.004%)
Top 3 chance: 0.044% (-0.051%)
Top 5 chance: 0.169% (-0.257%)
Top 10 chance: 1.005% (-1.802%)
Qualification chance: 16.013% (-16.716%)
Denmark 🇩🇰
Sissal - Hallucination
Tele-power: 36.569% (-2.727%)
Jury-power: 46.825% (-1.434%)
Winner chance: 0.017% (-0.014%)
Top 3 chance: 0.122% (-0.09%)
Top 5 chance: 0.427% (-0.373%)
Top 10 chance: 3.009% (-2.505%)
Qualification chance: 36.33% (-13.269%)
United Kingdom 🇬🇧
Remember Monday - What the Hell Just Happened?
Tele-power: 26.825% (+1.751%)
Jury-power: 52.299% (+5.122%)
Winner chance: 0.064% (+0.038%)
Top 3 chance: 0.736% (+0.349%)
Top 5 chance: 2.395% (+1.013%)
Top 10 chance: 10.805% (+3.101%)
Luxembourg 🇱🇺
Laura Thorn - La poupée monte le son
Tele-power: 43.869% (+2.356%)
Jury-power: 48.796% (+1.028%)
Winner chance: 0.009% (-0.003%)
Top 3 chance: 0.149% (-0.025%)
Top 5 chance: 0.764% (+0.08%)
Top 10 chance: 7.426% (+2.169%)
Qualification chance: 66.69% (-1.027%)