Dr. Manhattan dot jpg: It’s 1926 and southern white men are leading the Democratic Party. Its 1976 and southern white men are leading the Democratic Party. It’s 2026 and southern white men are leading the Democratic Party.

And why is there spread in it?

I’ll take the other side of the bet and hope I can rub it in your face at 85.

I agree that voters aren’t going to do that but prospectively I mean it doesn’t need to be given up on and that’s worth fighting on. I do think people should internalize that inflation is death for social democracy.

I think to the extent there was an impact from the progressive economic policy it was that we need to do cash stimulus slower so we can adapt to the upward pressure on prices and actually tax the well off to do it so it’s not as inflationary.

I really disagree with this. It wasn’t the progressive economic policy that caused inflation to go to 9%. I would simply not oversee the highest inflation in 40 years.

Right and won’t show up in the data

Right now Michigan's survey of consumers shows that people think it's a horrible time to buy a house and also don't think it's a good time to sell a house. Bad combo!

Well that's not it either, monthly mortgage payments for a lot of people went down because they refinanced at very low rates, but if you're looking to buy it's a huge issue.

What broke in 2022? Shelter inflation stopped measuring how people think about what a house costs! bsky.app/profile/wert...

This is a good point and I think supports my argument that the cost of a mortgage on a new home is doing a lot of work and isn’t in a) real income data, b) unemployment or inflation, and c) really impacts how people perceive the economy. Sure I can keep up with my bills, but I can’t buy a new home.

Yes but in fairness to UofM they're using a historical survey that did not used to do that but has been measuring party for a long time and also they're measuring adults and not RVs or LVs so NPORS seems like a perfectly good and useful benchmark.

We have benchmark surveys on this, particularly the Pew NPORS, and it looks nothing like the Michigan survey www.pewresearch.org/politics/fac...

I do think basically it's the list price of housing mismatch from the actual experienced price of housing that is at so much of this. If you're shopping for a home which many homeowners are and obviously many renters are, the "cost" of a home is what Zillow says it is and that number went crazy!

It was basically even in party ID until recently and now the sample is D +25!

I'm about to write on this but the Michigan survey is completely and utterly broken such that it has way way too many Democrats in it now and they don't weight by partisanship.

Lmao Gdi I swear I didn’t see @michaelcaley.bsky.social post the exact same thing while typing

Are you willing to run a popular former Republican like Mitt Romney in order to achieve large margins and get those consequences?

That’s right bsky.app/profile/mich...

A nice reminder that competitive authoritarianism is still competitive and can be beaten at the ballot box.

That JD Vance bounce

Nope!

Opposition up to 90% odds to win in Hungary on Kalshi.

Yeah I think if you substitute “what does an estimated monthly payment cost on Zillow” for Shelter CPI a lot of vibescession stuff melts away and while that’s not how it hits people’s pocketbook it is the advertised price of the thing.

Yes and debt service ratios are very low

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Guys I’m really not loving this “Bund good, Zionism evil” flattening of history, especially since:

a) the Bund collapsed because it failed in its goals
b) a not insignificant number of Bundists ended up colonizing Palestine anyway
c) the assimilated American Jews praising the Bund aren’t Bundists

We have lots of other sources that say people have negative sentiment about the economy but not like what UMich says bsky.app/profile/wert...

Really going to need to dig into the microdata here and see what’s happening with the partisan weighting (and obviously the switch to online only)

One step closer: MTG says she’s an independent now.

just insane how much of this discourse got tied up one academic's narcissistic insistence that her research program had not been superseded