The number of births in people in the UK are having plummeted from 810,000 in 2012 to just 660,000 in 2024.
@charliemccurdy.bsky.social breaks down the long-term trend, and why it matters 📽️
Today the Fair Work Agency was launched, bringing enforcement of several employment rights under one roof. This is a really welcome move, but its impact will depend on its resources and powers. A thread summarising the latest RF Labour Market Outlook: 🧵 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
![Figure 4 shows, almost half (47 per cent) of arrears identified in 2024-25 were ‘self-corrected’ and so attracted no financial penalty at all.[8] Labour market enforcement orders and undertakings are also used very rarely: in 2024-25, there were only 25 open LMEUs, and no LMEOs had been used since 2022-23.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:v2gvr3pl2uwqxues3xqs7ycj/bafkreifo7u4v5tlbnw2jtzjtkxzmerydvltd7uyweijoo2s5zy2gvgcctq)
Figure 4 shows, almost half (47 per cent) of arrears identified in 2024-25 were ‘self-corrected’ and so attracted no financial penalty at all.[8] Labour market enforcement orders and undertakings are also used very rarely: in 2024-25, there were only 25 open LMEUs, and no LMEOs had been used since 2022-23.
Creating the Fair Work Agency is a welcome milestone; but other enforcement challenges remain.
There will be no change to the scale of financial penalties, which are currently too low to be an effective deterrent. In fact, almost half of minimum wage cases are self-corrected so incur no penalty.
Figure 3 shows that the combined real-terms budget of the agencies that have become part of the FWA rose substantially during the mid-2010s, driven largely by additional funding for HM Revenue & Customs in the run-up to the introduction of the National Living Wage, but has been flat in recent years.
The budgets of the Fair Work Agency’s component bodies have been flat or falling in recent years.
Today's announcement that FWA funding will be increased is welcome, and the Government should commit to keeping this under review to ensure it reflects what the agency needs to do its job effectively.
Figure 2 shows that the UK’s labour market enforcement system was previously highly fragmented, spread across six different agencies as well as local authorities. The FWA brings together the three enforcement agencies on the left-hand side of the diagram – the Gangmasters and Labour Abuse Authority (GLAA), the Employment Agency Standards Inspectorate (EAS), and HM Revenue & Customs’ National Minimum Wage enforcement unit (HMRC NMW) – along with the Office of the Director of Labour Market Enforcement (ODLME), into a single organisation.
The launch of the Fair Work Agency represents a major overhaul of the labour market enforcement system.
The FWA will reduce fragmentation in the UK’s labour market enforcement system, bringing together different enforcement agencies into a single organisation.
Read more➡️ buff.ly/2cPqeAG
Figure 1 shows estimates of three types of labour market violation that we can assess using survey data, which suggest that hundreds of thousands of workers are not benefiting from the rights that they are owed. An estimated 445,000 jobs were paid less than the minimum wage in 2025 (22 per cent of those covered by it), up from 382,000 a year earlier. In addition, new analysis based on the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) suggests that as many as 2.2 million jobs do not come with any annual leave.
Even as employment rights are becoming stronger, non-compliance with existing rights remains a concern.
Hundreds of thousands of workers do not benefit from the basic rights they are owed.
Read more about how the new Fair Work Agency can address this➡️ buff.ly/2cPqeAG
Chart showing ost common reasons for not trying to have children among childless 32-year-olds, by education: England
Not feeling ready is the most cited reason for not trying to have children, followed by not having a suitable partner.
But financial constraints also play a role.
Read more:
buff.ly/1wohCc2
Chart showing estimated scale of labour market violations: GB/UK, various dates The figures shows estimates of three types of labour market violation that we can assess using survey data, which suggest that hundreds of thousands of workers are not benefiting from the rights that they are owed. An estimated 445,000 jobs were paid less than the minimum wage in 2025 (22 per cent of those covered by it), up from 382,000 a year earlier. In addition, new analysis based on the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) suggests that as many as 2.2 million jobs do not come with any annual leave. And 2023-24, 1.4 million workers reported not receiving a payslip, and so were unable to check they were getting what they were owed.
Hundreds of thousands of workers do not benefit from the basic rights they are owed.
The new Fair Work Agency can help tackle this.
Read how 👉 buff.ly/2cPqeAG
Hannah Slaughter, Principal Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “The creation of the Fair Work Agency marks an important and welcome step in the UK’s enforcement of employment rights. But to be effective the new agency will need sufficient funding and powers, and must ensure migrant workers feel able to make a complaint. “With a shocking number of workers in Britain being paid below the minimum wage, the Fair Work Agency cannot be a new face on the same old enforcement regime. Instead, it must go further in tackling rogue employers, ideally with a larger budget and the power to levy greater fines. “As workers begin to gain new rights on sick pay and parental leave – with more to come on contracts and hours – the Government must give its new Agency the means to ensure all workers are getting what they’re owed.”
🚨 New research out today
New labour market enforcement body marks welcome milestone for employment rights but Government must give it more powers to protect all workers
Details here 👉 buff.ly/2cPqeAG
chart showing Unadjusted earnings gap 10 years after graduation, associated with having been in deep poverty at age 16, for all graduates and by demographic group: England
Graduates who grew up in deep poverty face a large pay gap 10 years into their careers.
They earn 13 per cent less than graduates who did not grow up in poverty – equivalent to over £7,590 a year ⤵️
buff.ly/5VfX2Fi
Chart showing cash benefit of policy option by after housing costs income decile and energy use: 2025-26, UK/ GB/ England The lines show the mean cash value of each policy option in each income decile and the shaded areas show how cash benefit varies between those in the top and bottom quintile of energy use (measured by total bills) within each income decile.
A social tariff that provides discounted prices for low-income families is the best way to deliver targeted energy support this winter.
We modelled several alternatives, but none were as effective at targeting low-income households with high energy bills as a social tariff (in green).
The birth rate in the UK is falling.
@charliemccurdy.bsky.social explains one important reason why that matters ⤵️
Chart showing weekly real-terms value of various benefits: UK
This year’s Universal Credit uplift means that the basic rate of unemployment benefits will go up by more than inflation for the first time since 1983.
But the real-terms value of unemployment benefit is still 5% lower than in 2010-11. By contrast, State Pension rose by 20% over the same period.
Chart showing ost common reasons for not trying to have children among childless 32-year-olds, by education: England
Not feeling ready is the most cited reason for not trying to have children, followed by not having a suitable partner.
But financial constraints also play a role.
Read more:
buff.ly/1wohCc2
1. UC will soon be fully rolled out Thirteen years aer its introduction in 2013, UC will be fully rolled out in April. At this point, just under half of all children in the UK (42 per cent) will be living in families recieving UC. But despite its huge role in modern life, UC remains a source of anxiety for many. The Government must improve the system, and rebuild trust with claimants.
2. key problems remain Despite its long period of implementation, problems remain, like the five-week-wait for support, inflexible assessment periods, and the confusing structure of its online portal. But, there are aordable and fair solutions to all of these problems.
But technical or structural improvements need to be complemented by a fundamental ‘culture reset’ that puts dignity and respect at the heart of UC. The Government should work directly with claimants to deliver this possibly via the co-production of a Charter of Rights and retraining of staff.
4. which needn’t break the bank The sixteen policy recommendations outlined in the Foundation’s analysis would cost an estimated £400 million in one-off costs, and between £700-900 million in additional benefit expenditure each year. This marginal increase in the year-on-year benefit spend would be worth it to transform claimants' day-to-day experiences of the system.
This month marks a true milestone for the UK benefits system: the end of the thirteen-year rollout of Universal Credit that has brought together all means-tested working-age benefits.
This moment is an opportunity to consider how the system can be improved ⤵️
buff.ly/TjrE4OW
When considering trends on fertility, we shouldn't lose sight of the couple perspective.
Ann Berrington breaks down how men and women often provide different reasons for not feeling ready ⤵️
1. energy prices have risen steeply The duration and severity of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East remains highly uncertain, but has already caused havoc in energy markets. With no end in sight yet, there is a real risk that sustained high energy prices will hit living standards. Petrol has already risen from around £1.32 a litre (for unleaded) at the beginning of March to around £1.40 a litre on Monday, equivalent to almost £2 more to fill a typical tank.
2. but petrol prices are not the place to intervene The price at the pump is still low by historical standards – the cost of filling a tank is around the same as it was before the pandemic in real terms. And such a policy wouldn’t do enough to help poorer families with the cost of living, who consume less petrol than richer families. In any case, cancelling the planned Fuel Duty rise in September won’t help with rising petrol prices now.
3. energy bills will be hit hardest... Even with the fall coming in April, domestic energy bills are still up 17 per cent, or £236, in real terms since 2020 and could increase by hundreds of pounds more if recent highs in wholesale prices end up fully feeding through to bills. To avoid overspending at a time when our public finances are already stretched, the Government should aim for a cost-effective policy that targets hardship by both incomes and energy use.
4. ... which requires a social tariff This would mean providing poorer households with a discounted price per unit of gas and electricity - delivering greater support to those households using more energy, and excluding those on higher incomes. Crucially, it can also be easily targeted by consumer tariffs, to avoid unnecessarily supporting the four-in-ten households currently on fixed tariffs. So the priority should be accelerating efforts to deliver this ahead of next winter, including improving infrastructure to make income and energy data available on the same system.
How should the government respond if current spikes in energy prices continue?
A social tarriff can help to protect lower-income families with high energy use this winter.
Full proposal here ⤵️ buff.ly/bDPVzLB
People still want kids, so why is the number of births at a 150-year low?
In our latest Substack, @charliemccurdy.bsky.social looks at the material constraints that lie behind the recent British baby bust.
Read it here 👉
Nye Cominetti, Principal Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “Last year, a 6.7 per cent increase in the minimum wage plus a huge tax rise targeted at low-paid labour put a lot of pressure on low-paying sectors like hospitality, retail and care.” “This year’s 4.1 per cent minimum wage increase won’t create the same pressure. The increase is more modest – not far off average pay growth of 3.9 per cent in the January data. But it will help low-paid workers through the fresh cost of living crunch caused by the conflict in the Middle East. “The 8.5 per cent increase in the youth rate for 18-20 year olds may prove more challenging in the context of rising youth unemployment. Further big rises should be avoided until unemployment has started falling.”
New minimum wage rates came into effect this week.
This will help to boost low-paid workers as the conflict in the Middle Easr pushes up cost of living pressures.
Chart showing earnings gap 10 years after graduation, associated with having been in deep poverty at age 16, adjusted for demographic and university characteristics, and further adjusted for work characteristics: England
Child poverty isn't just bad, it resulst in an enduring earnings gap.
This gap between graduates who grew up in poverty and those who didn't persists even for people who go to the same university, get the same degree and work for the same firm ⤵️
buff.ly/5VfX2Fi
New analysis has revealed a sharp rise in the number of non-graduate women in their late-20s delaying having children.
Is that because their earnings are making up a greater share of their household's income?
@pmarslanagic.bsky.social considers 👇
Jonathan Marshall, Principal Economist at the Resolution Foundation said: “A lower price cap coming into force is good news for households, many of whom have not recovered from the last time prices spiked. But this relief is only likely to be temporary as war in the Middle East keeps oil and gas prices high. “So the Government must make hay while the sun shines and use the next few months to prepare for the worst on energy bills, by planning a social tariff that can support those who need help the most: families with both low incomes and high bills. The summer months give the government a window to ensure they can effectively target these households when temperatures drop and bills rise.”
The new lower price cap came into effect this week
This is good news for families, but the current war in the Middle East means this is likely to be short-lived.
![I’ve reached a point in my life where many of my peers are homeowners who talk about things like ‘kitchen triangles’[1]. As someone who doesn’t own their home, I nod smile and remind myself that I’m not alone. That’s what the data says anyway – the number of mortgagors is falling, more so among low and middle income households than for richer families. So, to what extent can I / we lay the blame for that trend on how easy – or otherwise – it is for typical households to get a mortgage?](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:v2gvr3pl2uwqxues3xqs7ycj/bafkreidh3gxx7wszwl4if667awk5pap2gwg4u7lihvoqquwcc3fsmtnp5q)
I’ve reached a point in my life where many of my peers are homeowners who talk about things like ‘kitchen triangles’[1]. As someone who doesn’t own their home, I nod smile and remind myself that I’m not alone. That’s what the data says anyway – the number of mortgagors is falling, more so among low and middle income households than for richer families. So, to what extent can I / we lay the blame for that trend on how easy – or otherwise – it is for typical households to get a mortgage?
As homeownership pulls increasingly out of reach for lower income households, Hannah Aldridge proposes a policy that could help first time buyers get a mortgage, without increasing house prices.
Read more here ⤵️ buff.ly/gI9CpHu
Graduates who grew up in deep poverty still earn less than their peers ten years into their careers.
@juliadelldiniz.bsky.social explains ⤵️
chart showing Proportion of potential first-time buyer households with income and/or savings to access a mortgage for a starter home in their region, by income quintile (before housing costs): GB, 2025-26 nowcast
Insufficient savings for a deposit (not low income) is the most common constraint for potential first-time buyers.
Even among the highest earners, onle one-in-four (26 per cent) have the savings required to put down a deposit for their first home.
Fertility trends don't just relate to women.
@eirnolsoe.bsky.social wonders whether stagnating (or falling) real incomes for men have played a role in the declining birth rate ⤵️
Graphic with text 1 Births have plummetted in recent years... Being childless at 30 is the the new normal. The number of births in the UK has fallen sharply from its recent high of 810,000 in 2012 to just 660,000 in 2024. The share of women in England and Wales who haven’t had a child by age 30 has surged from 48 per cent for those born in the late 1980s to 58 per cent for those born in the early 1990s.
2... ... most recently among non-graduates. The latest twist in in the tale has been the sharp rise in the number of non-graduate women (who have historically had children earlier) in their mid-to-late-20s who do not yet have children. This has increased from a third (33 percent) in 2011 to over half (54 percent) by 2023.
3 this isn’t all about preference There are many reasons people choose to delay or forego having children - from preference, to priorities, to partners. But, crucially, the gap between the average number of children women ideally want and the number of children they are having has grown – suggesting that other barriers are at play too.
4 housing and finances are partly to blame Non-graduates in their twenties are almost twice as likely to be living with their parents compared with the turn of the millenium. Young millennials that do move out are more likely to rent than own, with the proportion who are homeowners roughly halving over a similar time period. Three-in-ten women and one-in-four men cited financial constraints as a reason for not trying for a baby.
Is Britain facing a baby bust?
Our latest research assesses Britain’s falling birth rate since the early 2010s.
Read more: buff.ly/1wohCc2
chart showing Indices of the number of people in mortgaged families, by before-housing-costs income quintile (2000 = 100): GB
Since the 2008 financial crisis, mortgaged homeownership has fallen more rapidly among lower and middle income families.
Between 2008 and 2023 mortgagors in the 2nd and 3rd quintiles of income decreased by more than three-times the fall in the 4th and 5th quintiles ⤵️ buff.ly/0OaFqsX
chart showing Number of potential FTB families by how long it would take them to save for a 5 per cent deposit on a starter home if they saved 5 per cent of their current income after tax and housing costs: GB, 2025-26 nowcast
One-fifth of potential home buyers would need to save for at least a decade to have enough for a deposit.
Read 'Credit where credit's due' here ⤵️ buff.ly/0OaFqsX
If energy bills spike this winter, how should the government respond?
@zackleather.resolutionfoundation.org argues they should start planning now to introduce a social tariff 👇
