Read more below to engage with the realities of realized versus potential costs of cyber espionage operations, and the twin challenges of distinguishability and adaptability when faced with the dilemma of CNE vs OPE at the time of discovery. 8/8
www.au-csint.com/publications...
Moreover, the full spectrum of these costs are felt most keenly during periods of heightened tension—the “messy middle” between peace and war and during the initial onset of armed conflict—when every intrusion rouses deeper suspicion and magnifies the consequences of miscalculation. 7/8
This challenges how we think about deterrence, escalation management, cyber insurance, and even alliance politics. Treating cyber espionage as “cheap” misses the deeper reality: its true price is paid over time, through strategic friction, forced adaptation, and the steady monetization of doubt. 6/8
If uncertainty itself is a cost center, then cyber competition systematically degrades trust, raises baseline defense expenditures, and redistributes strategic advantage toward actors most comfortable exploiting ambiguity. 5/8
Is it part of an intelligence operation or a foothold that will later be used to generate effects? The challenge of distinguishing between these objectives, and the possibility that an adversary could flexibly shift between them, represents a significant and underestimated cost center. 4/8
The challenge of distinguishing between these espionage and , and the possibility that an adversary could flexibly shift between them, itself represents a significant and often underestimated cost center for defenders. 3/8
As many of you know, I have long been focused on the costs associated with cyber operations (specifically espionage) and the tactical, operational, and strategic realities of determining how a discovered malicious foothold might be used. 2/8
New Publication Alert: It is my pleasure to share that my recent report – coauthored with Alexander Leslie and Taylor Grossman through the Center for Security, Innovation, and New Technology (CSINT) at American University – is now live. 1/8
www.au-csint.com/publications...
The @bindinghook.bsky.social Live agenda is out! I’m honored to join a truly impressive group of people “where digital tech and global affairs meet” later this month in London. I’ll be presenting my research on AI compute, and why chips aren’t enough. See you there! bindinghooklive.com/agenda/
🗓️ #BindingHookLive agenda is out now! Check it out & request your invite: bindinghooklive.com/agenda/
Hats off to Olga Belogolova, Danielle Khan, the SAIS Emerging Technologies Initiative, and the entire team at Johns Hopkins SAIS for putting together this fantastic program two years running and for bringing together another excellent cohort of fellows this summer. 3/3
The US, Japan, and South Korea continue to sit at the heart of technology, innovation, and geopolitics. Closer ties and collaboration here could not be more important, and programs like this one continue to pave the way. 2/3
Over the past few weeks, I had the pleasure of supporting the SAIS Trilateral Technogy Training Program here in DC and the Bay Area with programming dedicated to #semiconductors, #compute infrastructure, and #AI. 1/3
Looking forward to speaking at #PLAITS2025 today on national security, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors.
Hope to see many of you there: futurerealities.org/PLAITS2025/i...
Kicking off a week focused on #AI and #semiconductors with the Special Competitive Studies Project’s #SCSPAIExpo25 here in DC. If you are in town, drop me a line.
Last month, I had the pleasure of organizing and moderating a panel delving into the different technologies that fuel artificial intelligence innovation and that underpin the AI triad, including but not limited to energy, data centers, models, and semiconductors. Post-event writeup here ⬇️
As the inaugural @iaseai.bsky.social conference wraps this evening in Paris, I am hustling back to my hotel room to (virtually) teach Johns Hopkins SAIS students about AI and national security. Looking forward to reflecting on several IASEAI discussions in my classroom with policy students.
Academic, industry, and policy silos can impair our ability to balance risk and opportunities across security, economics, and sustainability as well as the safety concerns that arise. Hats off to @iaseai.bsky.social for deliberately building a diverse community tackling challenging AI questions. 2/2
At #IASEAI25 today, @katecrawford.bsky.social’s tour de force talk on sustainability further drove home, for me, the importance of framing #AI as a Fulcrum Technology. For those who want to learn more about what Fulcrum Technologies are (and are not), an introduction can be found below. 1/2
And if you could not attend in person, consider catching a few of the talks virtually. Details below. www.iaseai.org/conference/l... 2/2
As Paris welcomes the world for the AI Summit, I am thrilled to be here and participating in #IASEAI25 over the next two days. Drop me a line if you are also in town and would like to connect on all things #AI #natsec and #semiconductors / #compute. 1/2
A podcast I recorded a few days after the election on #semiconductors, #AI, and #natsec just dropped. You can find it wherever you get your podcasts, including ⬇️
It is also well worth checking out their recent episodes with Gavin Wilde (foreign influence ops) and Greg Falco (space & cyber).
Are you a mid-career government official from the US, Japan, or South Korea interested in #AI, #cybersecurity, #biotech, #space, #semiconductors, #greentech? Join @johnshopkinssais.bsky.social for the 2025 Trilateral Technology Leaders Training Program. Additional details below ⬇️
Your cousin just asked about tariffs at Thanksgiving dinner and everyone got quiet. Let's break down how they actually work using what's on your dinner table - and why they usually end up costing families like yours more money. 1/
New export controls focused on advanced #computing and #semiconductors were announced today.
Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security announcement: lnkd.in/enzhMTgD
New Entity List & Validated End-User rules: lnkd.in/e6jisHdw
New Foreign Direct Product & other export controls: lnkd.in/eWB4RUEe
This is a story a lot of reporters have been chasing:
Starting in 2015, a massive cyberespionage campaign targeted some of America's most prominent environmentalists.
Now, we can reveal that the FBI has been probing whether a longtime Exxon lobbyist was involved.
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
One reason I'm cautiously excited that we reached critical mass here is that Bluesky finally has the same intersection of people I cared about on Twitter - natsec, infosec, academia, and journos.
Congratulations to the entire @virtualroutes.bsky.social team!
On a personal note, it was moving to see Finland and Sweden’s flags flying high as the newest members of the alliance. 🇫🇮 🇸🇪 2/2
