Budding infectious disease modellers:

We're running our intermediate-level infectious disease modelling short courses at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Each course is 4 days, and we're running them over the first two weeks of September.

With coauthors @alexandra-richards.bsky.social @aschwalbc.bsky.social @reinhouben.bsky.social from @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @tb-lshtm.bsky.social @glasgow.ac.uk

In our latest paper in @plosmedicine.org, we explore trade-offs in diagnostic algorithm, coverage, and duration of community screening for #TB, highlighting the importance of symptom-agnostic approaches and the need for strategies to sustain impact when screening ends.

plos.io/4tuD2SM

Urban and rural prevalence of tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis In a systematic review and meta-analysis, Seyed Alireza Mortazavi and colleagues investigate urban versus rural differences in adult pulmonary tuberculosis prevalence between 2000 and 2024 in 26 low- ...

In this systematic review & meta-analysis, Mortazavi & colleagues (@petermacp.bsky.social) investigate urban vs rural differences in #TB prevalence between 2000 and 2024 in 26 low- and middle-income countries, finding that TB epidemics have become increasingly urbanized 🧪 #MedSky
plos.io/3O79BqY

Great to see this work led by @alexandra-richards.bsky.social with @lightontb.bsky.social in @commsmed.nature.com. Further evidence that addressing gender disparities in TB burden and care are necessary for both an equitable response *and* an effective response. ⬇️

Join us for the closing webinar of the LIGHT research programme exploring gender-responsive approaches to TB care.

📅 31 March 2026 |⏰ 12:00–13:30 BST

Hear key findings from 6 years of global research, community-led insights, and what’s next for scaling impact.
👉 Register: shorturl.at/QVLDX

Our analysis of #TB exposure and transmission patterns is now in @pnas.org. @petedodd24.bsky.social and I found a majority of TB transmission globally is attributable to contact with adult men, while contributions to transmission by age are more variable across regions.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

🗞️ Recent study with @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social modelled the potential impact of funding cuts to TB #PublicHealth initiatives from international donors

Already implemented USAID cuts could cost $7.5 billion (USD) for healthcare systems & people living with TB

Read 🔽
www.lshtm.ac.uk/research/cen...

World TB Day Symposium 2026: 2 weeks to go

Join us in London or online on 24 March for the annual UCL/LSHTM symposium

Topics include:
• Beyond the lungs
• Global trends & health systems
• The potential for AI

Details and registration: www.ucl.ac.uk/tb/events/wo...

@tb-lshtm.bsky.social

New paper in @plosmedicine.org led by @aportnoy.bsky.social builds on our analysis of the potential epidemiological impacts of reductions in donor funding for #TB to show the economic burden on affected individuals and their households.

The potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study In a modelling study, Allison Portnoy and colleagues investigate the potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of Tuberculosis in low- and middle-income ...

In this modeling study, Allison Portnoy and colleagues investigate the potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries 🧪 #MedSky #TB
plos.io/4ryyBFX

Estimating the population impact of new tuberculosis vaccines depending on efficacy against infectious asymptomatic tuberculosis: A modelling study Hira Tanvir and colleagues estimate the potential impact of new tuberculosis vaccines under three scenarios of efficacy and conclude that to achieve the greatest impact, vaccines must prevent asymptom...

Our recent modelling study found that the estimated impact of new TB vaccines depends on the efficacy to prevent infectious asymptomatic TB. Read more in our paper out now in @plosmedicine.org!

journals.plos.org/plosmedicine...

Really excited to share that this work from @aschwalbc.bsky.social estimating the burden of viable Mtb infection is now published in @plosmedicine.org!

Insights on the implementation strategies for a potential new tuberculosis vaccine in South Africa Several tuberculosis (TB) vaccines intended for adults and adolescents are in late-stage clinical trials, but there is limited research into how a new TB vaccine would be introduced. South Africa is a...

Our new paper on strategies for implementing a potential new #TB #vaccine in South Africa is now published in @plosglobalpublichealth.org!

doi.org/10.1371/jour...

PhD position (London, UK)
Real-time modelling of infectious disease outbreaks.
with @sbfnk.bsky.social @anne-cori.bsky.social @seabbs.bsky.social
at @epiforecasts.io @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social
More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2440

Another successful "Intro to TB Modelling" course in Copenhagen at #WLHC2025. Over 70 joined to learn about TB modelling!

Followed by the now-traditional TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium social, which was also very well-attended and a lot of fun.

All are welcome to join the Gender Equity in TB Working Group today at 12:30 in Room B4B @theunion.org! We'll share updates on working group activities and host a panel discussion on progress to date and ways forward to ensure an equitable and inclusive #TB response.

Day 1: the LIGHT Annual Consortium meeting kicks off this morning at the Crown Plaza in Copenhagen.

Consortium partners from Nigeria, Malawi, Kenya, Uganda and the UK meet to discuss the key research findings, research uptake and impact so far.

🚨Fully-funded PhD opportunity!🚨

Interested in researching how to improve risk prediction for people with #tuberculosis #TB and #multimorbidity?

Joint project between @uofgshw.bsky.social 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 and @ki.se 🇸🇪, funded by UK MRC.

Details here⬇️

www.gla.ac.uk/postgraduate...

Interested in #TB, equity, and modelling? @reinhouben.bsky.social and I are advertising an MRC LID studentship on heterogeneity in the coverage of community screening for TB @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @lshtm.bsky.social.

For more details, visit mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...

Many thanks to @theunion.org and @the-independent.com for highlighting our work estimating the impact of reductions in global health funding on #TB morbidity and mortality

@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social
@tb-lshtm.bsky.social

Combining demographic shifts with age-based resistance prevalence to estimate future antimicrobial resistance burden in Europe and implications for targets: A modelling study Author summary Why was this study done? Infections caused by bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics are a major and growing threat to public health. Older adults and men are at higher risk of...

How will population shifts affect the future burden of #AMR? 👶👩‍🦳 🧫

We use a new modelling framework to explore future projections of #AMR by age and by sex, as well as interventions for control, building on our earlier findings that AMR isn’t uniform across demographics.

doi.org/10.1371/jour...

Impact of fluoroquinolone resistance on the cost-effectiveness of empiric treatment for multidrug- or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis The WHO recommends the bedaquiline, pretomanid, and linezolid (BPaL) regimen with the additional fluoroquinolone antibiotic moxifloxacin (BPaLM) for initial treatment of multidrug- or rifampicin-resis...

When fluoroquinolone resistance status is unknown, empirical use of BPaLM (adding moxifloxacin to BPaL) is cost-effective as a replacement for BPaL even with high fluoroquinolone resistance levels! 🦠💊

doi.org/10.1371/jour...

Climate change and tuberculosis: an analytical framework Climate change is likely to exacerbate a range of determinants that drive tuberculosis, the world's leading cause of death from a single infectious agent. However, tuberculosis is often neglected in w...

Our framework that informed the @who.int TB & climate change policy brief out now in @lancetrespirmed.bsky.social, exploring the intersections and implications of climate change for the TB epidemic. Key message? TB should be considered a climate-sensitive disease
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

It was a real pleasure to deliver this Introduction to TB Modelling workshop for representatives from Kenya’s National TB, Leprosy and Lung Disease Programme last week with great discussions about how modelling can be used in policy and programme decisions.

Our analysis highlights underappreciated patterns in #TB exposure and transmission that are directly relevant to efforts to end TB. More systematic analyses to understand the epidemiology of TB transmission should be used to inform context-specific prevention and care strategies.

Across age groups, TB exposure typically peaked in adolescence. However, transmission contributions by age varied across regions with the highest proportion from adolescents aged 15-24 in AMR and SEAR, adults aged 35-44 in AFR and EUR, and older adults 65+ in EMR and WPR.

[NOT YET PEER REVIEWED]

Both exposure and transmission were higher in males than in females. We found that a majority of TB transmission was attributable to contact with adult men: 67% (95% UI 62-71%) of transmission to men, 52% (95% UI 49-56%) to women, and 63% (95% UI 58-68%) to children.

[NOT YET PEER REVIEWED]

A global analysis of patterns of tuberculosis exposure and transmission Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health concern and the leading infectious cause of mortality globally. The disease exhibits strong prevalence patterns by age and sex, but the implications of these...

Understanding patterns of #TB exposure and transmission is needed for targeted prevention strategies. In our latest pre-print, @petedodd24.bsky.social and I estimated the proportion of TB exposure to and transmission from sex and age groups for 177 countries.

bit.ly/4nbV492

Do no harm - re-evaluating the risks of overtreatment in community-wide tuberculosis screening Background Community-wide screening is a crucial strategy to end tuberculosis (TB), but a common concern is potential harm from overtreatment following false positive diagnoses. However, current refer...

In a new preprint (NOT PEER REVIEWED) we continue to explore the challenge of overtreatment in community screening. It seems the benefits of TB treatment far outweigh the harms, especially once we accept that sputum culture is not perfect. Important food for thought. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...