Virginia Voting Today on Map That Could Hand 4 House Seats to Democrats

Virginia redistricting vote today. If passes will be 2nd state in US history to redraw map mid-decade via ballot proposition.
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/u...

Swalwell scandal reshapes crowded, unpredictable California governor’s race Rep. Eric Swalwell's exit threw another shakeup into the already-convoluted California governor's race. Who takes over as the frontrunner?

Why was Dem. party reaction to Swalwell so swift? "It’s not the 1990s [anymore],” Grose said. “especially as a Democratic candidate, Democratic voters and Democratic women voters, this is completely damaging him, obviously, to the point where he’s dropped out.” san.com/cc/swalwell-...

Swalwell’s shock exit throws California governor’s race into disarray: ‘This really tosses the table over’ The contest to replace Gavin Newsom was already bizarre – now after the downfall of its apparent frontrunner, the state’s Democrats are scrambling

Swalwell resigns, what comes next in 2026 California Governor's race? The Guardian notes that Tom Steyer, Katie Porter, Matt Mahan, others could benefit. I state that D v R general much more likely after Trump endorses Hilton even with Swalwell exit. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

Research published in Political Behavior by me, Natalie Masuoka and Jane Junn shows that Democratic voters, and Democratic women especially, are more likely to vote against candidates accused of sexual harassment than are Republicans. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

How does Eric Swalwell sexual assault allegations implode his support? In SF Standard: "Christian Grose...noted that Democratic voters — women in particular — are statistically more likely to take assault claims seriously than their Republican counterparts.” sfstandard.com/2026/04/10/r...

What Does the USC Formula from the Cancelled Governor’s Debate Teach Us? Candidate Viability Scores Predict Primary Vote Shares in California

Another recent one form @3streamsblog.bsky.social from @christiangrose.bsky.social et al medium.com/3streams/wha...

NewsConference: USC professor behind gubernatorial debate speaks out YouTube video by NBCLA

What is the state of the 2026 California Governor's race? There's a chance for 2 Rs in the general. I also talked about the prospects of lower-polling candidates dropping out with Conan Nolan on @nbcla.com News Conference. www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3Aw...

Took a break from the Western Political Science Association meeting in San Diego to take a walk by the ocean

One of my studies in AJPS was randomly selected and reproduced precisely in this new @nature.com study. What an undertaking to examine reproducibility and replication in the social sciences. Nice to see political science as one of the highest %s.

What Does the USC Formula from the Cancelled Governor’s Debate Teach Us? by José Javier Alcocer (Harvard) and Christian R. Grose (USC)

What Does the USC Formula from the Cancelled Governor’s Debate Teach Us? Candidate Viability Scores Predict Primary Vote Shares in California and Who Can Win. medium.com/3streams/wha...

@christiangrose.bsky.social didn’t deserve the public attacks he got for doing his job out here in CA.

Here’s his take:

www.politico.com/newsletters/...

Should Californians Have to Show ID to Vote? | KQED Airdate: Monday, March 16 at 10 AM Reform California, the conservative group behind a proposal to require voters to show identification at the polls, say they’ve gathered enough signatures to qualify…

🎙️ON AIR:

We're talking to @politico.com's Lindsey Holden and USC's @christiangrose.bsky.social about the impact of voter ID laws on elections and voter behavior.

❓Should California require an ID to vote? Or is our current system, which only requires an ID to register, enough?

📻Listen:

Should Californians Have to Show ID to Vote? | KQED Airdate: Monday, March 16 at 10 AM Reform California, the conservative group behind a proposal to require voters to show identification at the polls, say they’ve gathered enough signatures to qualify ...

Should Californians have to show ID to vote? I discussed CA's potential new ballot proposition and how it will have a major impact on mail-in ballots & voter participation. Listen on
@kqedforum.bsky.social with Mina Kim.
www.kqed.org/forum/2010101913284/should-californians-have-to-show-id-to-vote

Inside the Issues: Riverside Co. Voting; Gov. race polls; LAPD’s public safety “Inside the Issues” looks at a voting probe

Talked data and polls with @amritsingh.bsky.social on Inside the Issues around the California primary. Recent data show D Tom Steyer, R Steve Hilton, D Eric Swalwell surging. R Chad Bianco is not breaking out. spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/triad/ins...

The Dornsife 10 to Watch: 2026 YouTube video by USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

Ten @usc.edu @dornsife.usc.edu alumni to watch in 2026! Nice to see multiple former students who are tops in their fields! www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhXLPORSvUw

What the National Park Service Has Flagged Thus Far. It's Much Worse Than I Thought. Note: This is a long post.

I spent hours looking through hundreds of files of materials that have been flagged for review by National Park Service sites around the country. Here is just a small sample of what I found. #NationalParks 🗃️ open.substack.com/pub/kevinmle...

Is oil behind the U.S. attack on Iran? Is oil behind the U.S. attack on Iran? To understand the Trump administration’s military targets, take a closer look at the petrostate pattern.

On Iran, see the larger context.

Five of the seven countries that the Trump admin has militarily attacked since Jan. 2025 are significant oil producers, even though petrostates are rare.

It's not a coincidence. I explain why @goodauth.bsky.social

goodauthority.org/news/is-oil-...

Looking forward to meeting alumni in San Diego this weekend!

USC alums in San Diego! Looking forward to being in conversation with our dynamic new Dean James Bullock, Rep. Garret Graves, & @dornsife.usc.edu alum & Pomona Professor @sarasadhwani.bsky.social to discuss what to expect in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. events.usc.edu/esvp/herbklein2026/

Surprise green room meeting with James Worthy when going on Inside the Issues with @amritsingh.bsky.social! Got to talk polling, California politics, and basketball!
@spectrumsn.bsky.social @spectrumnews1socal.bsky.social

Join us for a panel called "Redistricting is Sexy! A Look Back on Prop 50" at @usc.edu. We'll discuss redistricting, Prop 50, and the midterm elections. RSVP: bit.ly/cpf0211

I have been cleaning out and digitizing an old filing cabinet at my office. Re-discovered some historic political ephemera I picked up while doing field research on redistricting back in the 2000s. This led to a book that discussed mid-decade redistricting that occurred in the 1990s.

Denial of appeal is here on SCOTUS web site: www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/DocketFiles/html/Public/25A839.html

Supreme Court, with no dissents, rejects GOP challenge to California's new election map With newly drawn maps, California may elect five more Democrats to Congress while Texas elects five more Republicans.

US Supreme Court, with no dissents, lets California Prop 50 redistricting map stand. www.latimes.com/politics/sto...

Goodbye January 2026! Enjoying sunset in L.A. and appreciating the weather! Hang in there east coast and midwest US!

#NEW: 2030 Apportionment Forecast based on 2025 Census Bureau Population Estimates (January 27, 2026).

Forecast prepared by Dr. Jonathan Cervas (CMIST) at Carnegie Mellon University

Judge finds Virginia Democrats' redistricting resolution illegal; new Maryland map advances A Virginia judge has ruled that a proposed constitutional amendment letting Democrats redraw the state’s Congressional maps was illegal.

Virginia's attempt to put a new redistricting map on ballot prior to 2026 midterms loses in state circuit court. Watch what happens on appeal. apnews.com/article/virginia-judge-rules-redistricting-plans-illegal-aa92e2eceeef476b4045b31c2c5affdc

New York’s congressional map must be redrawn, state judge rules New York state judge orders the state must redraw its congressional map by early February because the current map’s 11th District dilutes the votes of Blacks and Latinos.

New York state court strikes down Staten Island congressional district and says Black and Latino voter strength diluted in violation of state law. More mid-decade redistricting. abcnews.go.com/US/new-yorks...

California's Prop 50 redistricting map upheld in preliminary injunction federal court decision.

Decision here: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

Trump Can’t Cap Overhead Rate on NIH Grants to Research Universities, Appeals Court Rules The ruling is a victory for higher-education associations who challenged the proposed 15-percent cap, calling it illegal and claiming it would devastate the research enterprise.

a huge victory for universities, worth billions of dollars: Trump can’t cap indirect-cost rates on NIH grants, appeals court rules
www.chronicle.com/blogs/the-tr... via @andyandy.bsky.social