One of the keys (perhaps *the* key) to today's election will be whether 5 or 6/7 parties enter the Bundestag.
If 5 get in (CDU, SPD, Greens, Linke and AfD), a new Grand Coalition is likely.
If 6/7 (FDP and/or BSW) get in, a 3-party deal will be necessary - and things will get messier.
Una de las claves (quizás *la* clave) en las elecciones de hoy será si entran 5 o 6/7 partidos en el Bundestag.
Si entran 5 (CDU, SPD, Verdes, Izquierda y AfD), lo probable será una nueva Gran Coalición.
Si entran 6/7 (FDP y/o BSW), hará falta un tripartito y todo se complicará.
I agree: this is probably the best (realistic) scenario we can hope for today.
Alemania frente al espejo.
La clave estará en que el nuevo gobierno federal, previsiblemente encabezado por Friedrich Merz, logre salir de la crisis estructural que atraviesa el país.
Por @guilleiniguez.bsky.social.
politicaprosa.com/es/alemania-...
For those of you interested in rule of law backsliding, judicial reforms, and EU competition law, my recently published piece in the CYELS uses this as case study from which to explore the metastatic-like consequences of democratic backsliding.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Del escándalo y el victimismo a convertirse en una fuerza política y electoral respetable para millones de franceses. Escribo en @elpais.com sobre lo que la extrema derecha internacional le debe a Jean-Marie Le Pen.
Españoles, Le Pen ha muerto - elpais.com/opinion/2025...
Mis libros favoritos de 2024:
Escribo en @politicaprosa.bsky.social sobre las elecciones alemanas, el fin del "milagro alemán" y la profunda crisis estructural a la cual se enfrentará el próximo gobierno federal.
We are asking Ukrainians to defeat the armies of Putin and Kim Jong Un. In their efforts to do so, Ukrainians helped bring down Assad. Ukrainian resistance is one of the most stunning military achievements in modern history.
In essence, the #euro crisis only got better once all 3 German dogmas went out the window. 1) That the ECB was no lender of last resort, 2) that austerity was the way to fiscal health, and 3) that banking supervision and clean-up should remain national responsibility.
https://shorturl.at/zQ8bJ
New paper published @ajpseditor.bsky.social
Showing that reduced access to public services fuelled far right support in 🇮🇹
Existing work on far right highlights globalization & migration grievances, what about people’s experiences with the state?
We use 🇮🇹 reform to find out
shorturl.at/zQ8bJ
"Madrid no será una gran región metropolitana sin sus universidades públicas. Su presidenta nunca cumplirá ese programa si su forma de relacionarse con la enseñanza superior es ideológica."
@ubeda1955.bsky.social en @elpais.com.
elpais.com/opinion/2024...
Carl Schmitt you fucking hack. You didn’t even consider that Parliament could just vote no to the Sovereign
Today, in fun things to do that just take a moment of your time: trying to get paid a modest speaker's fee from a university. As a bureaucratic project, it's up there with obtaining a visa for North Korea and getting the BBC to pay VAT.
Con tal de afianzarse en el 4% de intención de voto, hay una izquierda que tira por tierra sus propios logros en el Gobierno. La concienciación en torno al sector de reparto en plataformas digitales, su traducción en procesos legales y codificación vía Ley Rider derivan de cuando UP tenía ministros.
El 23F hay elecciones en Alemania y todas las miradas están puestas en un nombre: Friedrich Merz. Este perfil del más-que-probable próximo canciller alemán es perfecto para conocer a la persona detrás del político o al político detrás de la persona. legrandcontinent.eu/es/2024/11/3...
"Hace falta que la política muestre lo que es capaz de hacer ejecutando presupuestariamente, más en un momento en que el Legislativo avanza con dificultades al depender de los votos de Junts."
El análisis de @danielbernabe.bsky.social del Congreso Federal.
www.infolibre.es/opinion/colu...
NEW
An argument about Assisting Dying
Matters of life and death need to be properly regulated by law, and not by official discretion
By me
emptycity.substack.com/p/an-argumen...
(substack)
davidallengreen.com/2024/11/an-a...
(personal blog)
Lo del desmantelamiento de la universidad pública por Isabel Díaz Ayuso parece la motosierra de Milei por lo bajini. Me parece ciencia ficción. Pero está pasando. 👇
elpais.com/educacion/20...
Too much UK analysis of the whole Brexit saga ignores the negotiating dynamics and focuses instead on narrow domestic politics. I hope that won't be repeated for upcoming talks, and that we'll understand that outcomes are shaped very early by constraints on both sides.
"As the world’s most powerful country, America may feel that appealing to international law and institutions is something that only wimpy Europeans need to do. But even the mighty US needs allies and global rules ... A world without law will be a frightening and dangerous place."
on.ft.com/3B4igUv
Mexico's hand is considerably stronger against the US than it was during Trump's first term (nearshoring, China-related issues, immigration cooperation) and I think Mexico feels it needs to fight back at least a bit otherwise its going to be the go-to country to flog whenever Trump needs a win.
Lo he visto, muchas gracias!
Este instituto de Benetússer ha perdido todos sus libros. Cualquier ayuda es bienvenida.
¿Hay una dirección a la que poder mandar libros?
In the days leading up to the 13th sanctions package, Hungary reportedly withheld its support because of the envisaged sanctions on certain Chinese companies.
(CC @rdanielkelemen.bsky.social and @morenstein.bsky.social's work on "Trojan horses" within the Council).
2/2
www.ft.com/content/53f2...
China has been a key strategic partner of Hungary's since its post-2010 "Eastern Opening" strategy. As this article explains, it has formed part of HU's attempt to counterbalance its growing dependency on the EU/the West.
However, this strategy has also impacted upon the EU's foreign policy.
1/2
Esto de @danielbernabe.bsky.social es muy bueno.
"[W]hile signing a petition hardly compares to the storming the Capitol, it would be dangerously naïve to ignore the fact that each of those phenomena occupy positions on the same populist continuum."