Vide-coding pentagon tiling "game" and finding it pretty addictive. You can play with it here: ericsgames.tiiny.site

Probabilistic Modeling and Biomedicine | Eric Novik | Substack Summary of the recent posts and perspectives on probabilistic modeling, Bayesian inference, and their applications in biomedicine from the team at Generable and their collaborators. Click to read Prob...

Probabilistic Modeling and Biomedicine: generable.substack.com

CVCT 2025 and Bayesian Model Guiding Iterative, Personalized Anticoagulant Dosing Decision-Making | Eric Novik | Generable ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 Trial Reanalysis

CVCT 2025 and Bayesian Model Guiding Iterative, Personalized Anticoagulant Dosing Decision-Making www.generable.com/post/cvct-2025

Lower limits of detection or quantification | Nikolas Siccha | Generable Where more data can be bad (if you don’t handle them right)

Beware of lower limits of detection or quantification by Nikolas Siccha
www.generable.com/post/lloqs

Remarkable that Igor Savelyev credits Lenin with the definition of matter! Being a Soviet scientist was a tricky business -- even physics books needed to pass the censor.

Modeling and numerics: could we do something better? | Juho Timonen | Generable The issues of the traditional ODE solvers in probabilistic models

Modeling and numerics: could we do something better? by Juho Timonen.
www.generable.com/post/modelin...

Improving dosing decisions | Jacqueline Buros | Generable Using a multistate model and patient utilities to improve dosing decisions

Personalized dosing decisions beyond clinical trials: www.generable.com/post/improvi...

Nonparametric statistics: Gaussian processes and their approximations | Nikolas Siccha | Generable

Nonparametric statistics: Gaussian processes and their approximations by Nikolas Siccha
www.generable.com/post/nonpara...

StanBio Connect 2025 YouTube video by Stan

If you are interested in meta-analysis (Bayesian or non-Bayesian), check out @rlgrant.bsky.social Robert Grant's nice StanBio Connect talk available at
www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbZ1...
in which he also advertises his soon-to-be shipping book "Bayesian meta-analysis"
www.routledge.com/Bayesian-Met...

StanBio Connect 2025 – StanBio Advancing Biomedical Research with Stan

StanBio Connect 2025 free online conference May 30 stanbio.org

... Stan in biomedicine including drug discovery and development, bioinformatics, medical devices, health economics, real-world evidence, and decision-making under uncertainty

Things I read listened to, and saw in 2024: ericnovik.com/2025/03/book...

The Scientific Method Vs. AI: Is There Still Room For Theory? It may seem that all scientific tasks will soon be outsourced to AI—not so fast.

The Scientific Method Vs. AI: Is There Still Room For Theory? My take here: www.forbes.com/councils/for...

Thanks, Robert, I added it to my queue; I love reading biographies of scientists, particularly in math, stats, and physics. The last one I read was "Hawking Hawking", which is not so much a biography, as a more honest take on Steven Hawking's life -- disintangling the myth from the man, so to speak.

StanBio Connect 2025 – StanBio Connect Advancing Biomedical Research with Stan

StanConnects are a series of one-day online conferences for the application of Stan to specific areas. This year, we're kicking off with Stan for biology (broadly defined), co-organized by @ericnovik.bsky.social and @vianeylb.bsky.social, on 30 May '25!!

stanbio.org

“In the fall of 1972, President Nixon announced that the rate of increase of inflation was decreasing. This was the first time a sitting president had used the third derivative to advance his case for re-election.” (Notices of the AMS, Oct. 1996, 43(10), p. 1108.)

Turns out there Bayesian BioPharm Meeting 2025. bnp14.org/bbp2025/. Anyone going?

My daughter's pork belly ramen is the best I've ever had.

I was just talking to an experienced probabilistic modeler who said: "After working with a few probabilistic programming languages, Stan is my fave: everything is typed and everything just works." It's a pain to get things in and out of Stan, but it's usually worth it.

2025 is a 2, 3, 4, 5 kind of year. Why? Because 2025 = 3^4 * 5^2

Modeling Public Opinion Over Time and Space: Trust in State Institutions in Europe, 1989-2019 by Kołczyńska et al. ojs.ub.uni-konstanz.de/srm/article/...

"When you are playing a point, it's the most important thing in the world. But when it's behind you, it's behind you..." -- Roger Federer

Thrilled to share our new @pnas.org paper using active learning 🤖 to optimise disease testing 🦠 and support public health 🌍.

Press release by @imperialsph.bsky.social: imperial.ac.uk/news/259573/...

Paper: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Joint work with some stellar collaborators!

If you are interested in doing a #PhD with me at Imperial College London and qualify as a home student, please reach out (before end of 2024)! Potential topics: spatial statistics, applied deep generative models, probabilistic programming and more.

Why is a bullshitter worse than a liar? Because he is not even wrong!
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_Bull...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_eve...

Alexander Aitken - Wikipedia

A lot of people heard about John von Neumann but not about Alexander Craig Aitken, but Aitken was quite remarkable particularly if you are a statistician. For example, he independently derived Cramer-Rao lower bound, a very nice result in (frequentist) statistics.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexand...

Traveling salesmen are still out of luck, but the commercial movers finally caught a break with this breakthrough!

phys.org/news/2024-12...

Statistical wars inside the frequentist camp:

According to Neyman, though, the argument began because Fisher demanded that Neyman lecture only from Fisher’s book. When Neyman refused, Fisher promised to oppose him “in all my capacities.” - The Theory That Would Not Die

Ahh, Indox zero.

Why do CS people write nice-looking code while statisticians don't? For a computer scientist, code is the product; for a statistician, code is a byproduct.

CmdStan & Stan 2.36 release candidate I am happy to announce that the latest release candidates of CmdStan and Stan are now available on Github! This release cycle brings new constrained types, improved diagnostics, and a new distributio...

A new release of Stan is coming discourse.mc-stan.org/t/cmdstan-st....

Highlights:

New constraints for stochastic matrices and zero-sum vectors

Easier user-defined constraints

Improved diagnostics

New distribution, beta_negative_binomial